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  • #1,261
  • Sep 7, 2018 8:25am Sep 7, 2018 8:25am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} BOC Wilkins said the bank may raise rates even if NAFTA fails apart.. but only expecting +5k jobs... seems like a low number to beat. but.. came in at -51k jobs vs +5k.... interesting.... prices ignoring it as likely NAFTA news is overriding jobs data.
True.

TBH i did not expect the jobs to come in bad.

Nafta is still an issue and apparently Trump is targeting japan next.
  • #1,262
  • Sep 7, 2018 8:31am Sep 7, 2018 8:31am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} True. TBH i did not expect the jobs to come in bad. Nafta is still an issue and apparently Trump is targeting japan next.
question is...

is that good or bad for the YEN?
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,263
  • Sep 7, 2018 9:09am Sep 7, 2018 9:09am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} question is... is that good or bad for the YEN?
When something bad happens in Japan. The yen gains strength loooooo. It happened not long ago and I was shocked.
  • #1,264
  • Sep 7, 2018 9:17am Sep 7, 2018 9:17am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} When something bad happens in Japan. The yen gains strength loooooo. It happened not long ago and I was shocked.
usually the YEN performs the best in risk off situations... but right now it is lagging behind CHF as safe haven currency, which rarely happens...
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,265
  • Sep 7, 2018 11:25am Sep 7, 2018 11:25am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} Hmm, interesting point - previos years of the month. How can this be important? If NFP is monthly then tendency should be same every month I assumed. But at least my coach said the forecast is very important - the price goes to the direction of most important news forecast. Unless there is some political events which are unforecastable and he said he hates those
I was far away from right this time Well, when you look at previous years you get some picture of that period and you have some idea if it's strong or usually weak. But this is my opinion I don't have a coach I'm learning on my own.
  • #1,266
  • Sep 7, 2018 11:40am Sep 7, 2018 11:40am
I just traded AUDJPY but it was a very quick move as trump is implementing more tariffs on china. I actually got the news come through via forexlive on my phone and was a good thing I checked. Here is the chart below. News came in at 17:10 but I entered at 17:12
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  • #1,267
  • Sep 10, 2018 6:24am Sep 10, 2018 6:24am
Anyone trading fundamentals/News flow will know Thursday is very key day as we have the ECB & the BOE both in play. I really do not see what the ECB could be hawkish about and with the BOE it all depends on what mood Carney is in in terms of hawkish/dovish sentiment.

I would imagine the dollar will continue to carry on with more gains, but there is also a slim chance the BOE could throw in another hike this year.
  • #1,268
  • Sep 10, 2018 8:03am Sep 10, 2018 8:03am
Cable spike traded and closed for 15 pips. Barnier said he expects a deal in 6 to 8 weeks.
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  • #1,269
  • Sep 10, 2018 8:13am Sep 10, 2018 8:13am
Quoting Samson85
Cable spike traded and closed for 15 pips. Barnier said he expects a deal in 6 to 8 weeks. {image}
The trade is still rallying but last week it did a partial reversal so holding too long is risky!!! Could go to R3 Pivot or r2 at least!!
  • #1,270
  • Sep 10, 2018 8:36am Sep 10, 2018 8:36am
Quoting Samson85
Anyone trading fundamentals/News flow will know Thursday is very key day as we have the ECB & the BOE both in play. I really do not see what the ECB could be hawkish about and with the BOE it all depends on what mood Carney is in in terms of hawkish/dovish sentiment. I would imagine the dollar will continue to carry on with more gains, but there is also a slim chance the BOE could throw in another hike this year.
the BOE is too reliant on Brexit news now and way less on BOE. The ECB is up in the air... any sign of dovishness from ECB likely start an downtrend move given that the dollar has been very grown economic news wise of late.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,271
  • Sep 10, 2018 8:47am Sep 10, 2018 8:47am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} the BOE is too reliant on Brexit news now and way less on BOE. The ECB is up in the air... any sign of dovishness from ECB likely start an downtrend move given that the dollar has been very grown economic news wise of late.
I agree 100%!!!

Brexit news is killing so many traders. One of my trading buddies got stopped out of 2 pound positions!! Cost him alot of money.

I gave warnings to say stay away from cable.
  • #1,272
  • Sep 10, 2018 9:44am Sep 10, 2018 9:44am
A good read people : https://e-markets.nordea.com/#!/article/45906/fx-weekly-who-wants-to-impeach-a-60-ism-president
  • #1,273
  • Sep 11, 2018 3:40am Sep 11, 2018 3:40am
I took a short on cable 1 minute before employment numbers release as I thought the unemployment would read bad which it did but the average earnings read well and I was stopped out for 15 pips!!!
  • #1,274
  • Sep 11, 2018 4:52am Sep 11, 2018 4:52am
This might sound like a silly question but, couldn't one just look at the long term trend to gauge the sentiment of a currency? The GU chart has been under the 50SMA on the daily TF since May. And, mostly under the weekly and monthly TF's since before June 2018.

I would imagine just keeping an eye on important news events to make sure that nothing changes the trend would be adequate fundamental analysis? I mean, nobody knows for sure what banking decisions, or economic performances are going to happen in the future?
  • #1,275
  • Sep 11, 2018 5:04am Sep 11, 2018 5:04am
Quoting plymgary
This might sound like a silly question but, couldn't one just look at the long term trend to gauge the sentiment of a currency? The GU chart has been under the 50SMA on the daily TF since May. And, mostly under the weekly and monthly TF's since before June 2018. I would imagine just keeping an eye on important news events to make sure that nothing changes the trend would be adequate fundamental analysis? I mean, nobody knows for sure what banking decisions, or economic performances are going to happen in the future?
I have read that some funds do trade trends without the fundamentals. For example GBP/CAD at some point this year had a fab upward trend due to nafta. EURSEK had a strong trend as well. The issue is when do you know when to take profit if you do not understand the sentiment.

For example - I would say the best trend to hold right now is USD/ZAR & USD/TRY.
  • #1,276
  • Sep 11, 2018 1:17pm Sep 11, 2018 1:17pm
Quote
I would say the best trend to hold right now is USD/ZAR & USD/TRY.

yea, I traded eur/try - similar to usd/try on demo like year ago or less. This was making my bigges profit of all pairs, and only few pairs were making profit out of like 10-15. Even when I did not hold til the end of trend but tried to buy on pullbacks, support levels. Even for such noob it was easy. But I still did not use real money because I was thining - now htis might be luck when it goess to one direction , but how long can it go to one direction. ANd when I will start trading with real money, it will probably start not going in on direction
  • #1,277
  • Sep 11, 2018 1:24pm Sep 11, 2018 1:24pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} yea, I traded eur/try - similar to usd/try on demo like year ago or less. This was making my bigges profit of all pairs, and only few pairs were making profit out of like 10-15. Even when I did not hold til the end of trend but tried to buy on pullbacks, support levels. Even for such noob it was easy. But I still did not use real money because I was thining - now htis might be luck when it goess to one direction , but how long can it go to one direction. ANd when I will start trading with real money, it will probably start not going in on...
Usdtry is very similar to his Dow Jones use to be like last year. Only way is up but I would wait for it to digest a bit.

Zar is also good to trade and mxn
  • #1,278
  • Sep 12, 2018 1:19am Sep 12, 2018 1:19am
Just gone short on usdcad as we had ground breaking news on nafta 12hours ago. I did see the 1st headline about trump saying it's going well but it seemed a repeated headline so ignored but it did do a delayed reaction. Stop is at 1.31 and target is 1.30
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  • #1,279
  • Sep 12, 2018 3:48am Sep 12, 2018 3:48am
Quoting Samson85
Just gone short on usdcad as we had ground breaking news on nafta 12hours ago. I did see the 1st headline about trump saying it's going well but it seemed a repeated headline so ignored but it did do a delayed reaction. Stop is at 1.31 and target is 1.30 {image}
Closed this trade at break even as apparently some of the CAD reports in relation to farming could be false.
  • #1,280
  • Sep 12, 2018 7:22am Sep 12, 2018 7:22am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Closed this trade at break even as apparently some of the CAD reports in relation to farming could be false.
news was that Canada was ready to make concessions on dairy which appears to be the only lasting disagreements for a deal. Looking a deal is near and CAD likely to continue to strengthen. Any trade deal will also increase more likely hood of more rate increase by the BOC. Sitting at about 65% chance of 25bps hike next month... a deal will also put an December rate hike in play too.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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