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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #42,961
  • Edited 4:21am Sep 8, 2018 3:44am | Edited 4:21am
Week 36
- 6 trades (-137)
- 1 winners
- 4 losers
- 1 B/E
- Traded 1 contract
- Demo trading

Improvements from last week
a) Determine the right order flow to trade. Remind yourself of the last live streams you have watched where that was addressed in detail.
This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention.
b) I have noticed I suffer from the syndrome of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Don't do that anymore. Future possibilities will present themselves. Be patient.
This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention.
c) Stick to your trade plan. Don't trade outside the hours that are in your trade plan.
Although I did trade within my trading hours, I did move away from my trade plan on multiple occasions.
d) Stop overanalyzing your trades. Like Damian said in one of his live streams. There's only 3 things you have to do:

1. Determine the expectation.

2. Determine how deep of a correction you would expect.

3. Execute when criteria no. 2 is met.

Mostly I just traded the expectation, but it did not work out very well this week. It gave me more confidence that other people were struggling as well, so I have to keep following the steps above.

e) Determine an expectation for a correction based on projection, momentum and depth and wait for this expectation to play out.

This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention.

f) Stick to the order flow that you are trading. Don't switch to longer or shorter term order flows over the course of a trading session.

This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention.

g) Wait for price to develop. If price is in a complex correction for a longer period, be patient and wait for a break of the NSH/NSL or LH/HL.

I did not get into trades too early, so I am happy with this improvement.

h) Anything my fellow traders give me feedback on.

I received some very great insights from Evo and Prock on a trade and that is something I will look into in more depth over the weekend.


Improvements for next week

All the improvements from last week are still valid for the coming weeks. I do want to add some things to my routine that might help me improve.

  1. I will look into creating some kind of framework for myself to be able to determine strength and weakness without overcomplicating things (just some basic questions to answer). This is something that is keeping me busy over the last couple of days. I will keep you updated on that.
  2. Since I deviate from my trading plan so easily, I want to measure my trading a little differently. I am thinking about some kind of a score system to measure if I followed my rules or not. For each score there will be a reward waiting. I will keep you updated on that as well.


Below my charts. Comments are welcome as always.


Regards,


Gunnar

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  • #42,962
  • Edited Sep 9, 2018 6:54am Sep 8, 2018 10:42am | Edited Sep 9, 2018 6:54am
Quoting Bruin813
Week 36 - 6 trades (-137) - 1 winners - 4 losers - 1 B/E - Traded 1 contract - Demo trading Improvements from last week a) Determine the right order flow to trade. Remind yourself of the last live streams you have watched where that was addressed in detail. This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention. b) I have noticed I suffer from the syndrome of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Don't do that anymore. Future possibilities will present themselves. Be patient. This improved a little, but still needs a lot of attention. c) Stick to your...
Hi :
i believe that you are mixing up different order flow and that may be reason of your wrong expectation , i have chosen your Thursday chart to explain my point.
Attached Image

You have correctly identified your main swing, but then you have chosen NSH and HL on the basis of immediate order flows, and this would cause confusion.
I draw the real expectation , for the 2nd leg of the AB=CD pattern in yellow, as you know, expectation for second leg of the pattern is to have more sluggish course ( longer duration , more bars) to complete, but at the end it has reached its target with 1:1 completion.
And then, what would you expect after completion of an AB=CD ? .....correction to 61.8% of the entire length of the AB=CD , or to the length of the its CD leg .
So if that was order flow you intend to trade ,then at the completion of it you may have entered short , with BE at 38.6% and target of 61.8%.
I hope that this be of some help .
  • #42,963
  • Sep 8, 2018 1:20pm Sep 8, 2018 1:20pm
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi : i believe that you are mixing up different order flow and that may be reason of your wrong expectation , i have chosen your Thursday chart to explain my point. {image} You have correctly identified your main swing, but then you have chosen NSH and HL on the basis of immediate order flows, and this would cause confusion. I draw the real expectation , for the 2nd leg of the AB=CD pattern in yellow, as you know, expectation for second leg of the pattern is to have more sluggish course ( longer duration , more bars) to complete, but at...
I disagree with you on the order flow. I was trading the same order flow all the time. Had I been looking for the smaller swings in between, then yes this was more immediate order flow.

However, your remark about the AB=CD is very helpful. I don't concern myself too much about harmonics yet, but I think it is time to include that in my trading as well since it will help me where price is or will be in relation to expectations and stuff. I believe Damian calls this "situational awareness". Am I right?

I will start looking more into this. Maybe review some charts you have posted to get a better understanding. Thanks for the feedback, Parviz.

Regards,

Gunnar
  • #42,964
  • Edited 5:19pm Sep 8, 2018 4:36pm | Edited 5:19pm
Quoting Bruin813
{quote} I disagree with you on the order flow. I was trading the same order flow all the time. Had I been looking for the smaller swings in between, then yes this was more immediate order flow. However, your remark about the AB=CD is very helpful. I don't concern myself too much about harmonics yet, but I think it is time to include that in my trading as well since it will help me where price is or will be in relation to expectations and stuff. I believe Damian calls this "situational awareness". Am I right? I will start looking more into this....
Hi:
Quote
I don't concern myself too much about harmonics yet,
If not , so then what? this means that your trading plan is not based on harmonics yet?!!!
May i ask you please to explain, on what, your trading plan is based then..?

The whole idea and teachings of Damian is based on the harmonic movement of price and especially AB=CD pattern...
Look at the title of the thread, watch Damian's lessons 1 to 9 videos...
  • #42,965
  • Sep 9, 2018 4:33am Sep 9, 2018 4:33am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi: {quote} If not , so then what? this means that your trading plan is not based on harmonics yet?!!! May i ask you please to explain, on what, your trading plan is based then..? The whole idea and teachings of Damian is based on the harmonic movement of price and especially AB=CD pattern... Look at the title of the thread, watch Damian's lessons 1 to 9 videos...
That is not what I mean. Of course I trade harmonics. I trade the expectation and look for a C-entry with a D-target.
What I don’t do (yet) is looking at the bigger picture to determine where price is by using harmonics before even entering a trade. I haven’t seen Damian do this, but I’m sure he sees it by just looking at a chart.

Please note that I’m only familiar with this system for about 2-3 months now and I’m still digesting all available information.
  • #42,966
  • Sep 9, 2018 4:39am Sep 9, 2018 4:39am
Quoting Prock
{quote} I wouldn't worry too much about it. March and April I was down -70% on my trading account. I couldn't believe the shit I got myself into. Every weekend I would go back studying the YM for the last 10 years of data and picked my favourite tick chart to study the YM on. The last 3 weeks I'm up +30% on my account. Truthfully I thought I'd never be able to recover because my account was getting so low I was scared I wouldn't even be able to trade 1 contract. Anyways, enough of my rambling... remember its just a bad week not a bad year.
Hey Prock, just came across this one. Can you share what your chart study looked like? Thx
  • #42,967
  • Sep 9, 2018 7:30am Sep 9, 2018 7:30am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi : i believe that you are mixing up different order flow and that may be reason of your wrong expectation , i have chosen your Thursday chart to explain my point. {image} You have correctly identified your main swing, but then you have chosen NSH and HL on the basis of immediate order flows, and this would cause confusion. I draw the real expectation , for the 2nd leg of the AB=CD pattern in yellow, as you know, expectation for second leg of the pattern is to have more sluggish course ( longer duration , more bars) to complete, but at...
hy Parviz sorry if i bother you but im tryng to understand why his nsh is not good and yours is good
  • #42,968
  • Edited 9:58am Sep 9, 2018 8:56am | Edited 9:58am
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} hy Parviz sorry if i bother you but im tryng to understand why his nsh is not good and yours is good
Hi:
It is not that mine is good and his is not.
The whole idea is what order flow you are trading , when you draw your main swing , then all of your subsequent decision depends on it.

For example:
1) you look for the price to find on what fib % of the main swing the correction extend.
2) you don't consider expectation failure , unless price goes against your swing and pass its boundary.
3) you determine your BE point in relation with its boundary
4) you expect to have a target at 1:1 ratio or 127% fib ratio of main swing extension after correction.
5) you set your SL according to main swing.
6) you determine areas of supports and resistance around it , and its target and SL.

In his drawing the first order flow he choose was his main swing , which has been corrected to around its fib 50%zone ( the C point of tha AB=CD), and now the expectation would be 1:1 completion of CD leg , it exactly done that where at that point, which i named it NSH, and then rotated down for another correction.
During its course up, price never broke the main swing down ,for me to call it NSL.

Now, if he use the smaller order flow as his trading swing then all his NSH and HL are correct (look at the image) , now the expectation failure, SL setting and his target would be different and he would be fine. The expectation failure was then when price broke the red line down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #42,969
  • Sep 9, 2018 10:00am Sep 9, 2018 10:00am
Quoting parviz1953
{quote} Hi: It is not that mine is good and his is not. The whole idea is what order flow you are trading , when you draw your main swing , then all of your subsequent decision depends on it. For example: 1) you look for the price to find on what fib % of the main swing the correction extend. 2) you don't consider expectation failure , unless price goes against your swing and pass its boundary. 3) you determine your BE point in relation with its boundary 4) you expect to have a target at 1:1 ratio or 127% fib ratio of main swing extension after...
ohhhhhh so you can have a new NSH only after a 1:1 completion of the main swing?
what if the price doesnt ceomplete a 1:1 and then makes a NSL?
  • #42,970
  • Sep 9, 2018 10:16am Sep 9, 2018 10:16am
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} ohhhhhh so you can have a new NSH only after a 1:1 completion of the main swing?
No, that's just how Parviz approaches his trading strategy and that's fine. Below a quote from the trading plan of Mr. Pip which describes when a NSH is made.

New Structure High (NSH) – This is a new high in a price swing and forms from an impulse leg or move up. This is a clear message that the market intends to move higher. The expectation from this is for price to correct or as some would call retrace into the next expectation.

You can also watch this video, where it is explained in more detail.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mf7H3TTNqPA&t=2s
  • #42,971
  • Edited 11:22am Sep 9, 2018 10:25am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting vladutz112
{quote} ohhhhhh so you can have a new NSH only after a 1:1 completion of the main swing? what if the price doesnt ceomplete a 1:1 and then makes a NSL?
OH no I don't mean that, all of them are NSH ,but i choose the one which best fit my selected swing, and in this case it is the last one.
My point is not about the definition of NSH , but that you are not going to call the next move NSL unless you have an expectation failure , and when would it be..?
This is when and the one, that is totally dependent on your main swing selection, and this is where he may have made a mistake if he intended to trade the green swing as his main one, and this was the reason that i said, don't mix order flows because it will confuse you.
Look at yellow nsl , bellow the red line vs green nsl below green line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And its importance is when you want to set your SL ,the correct place is below your main swing , for shorter term order flow below red line , and for larger order flow below the green one.
  • #42,972
  • Sep 9, 2018 11:49am Sep 9, 2018 11:49am
Quoting Bruin813
{quote} Hey Prock, just came across this one. Can you share what your chart study looked like? Thx
Ou. I first came across this thread a year ago almost today. I quietly traded on demo and had yet to post on the thread. I believe I started posting my demo trades in January on the thread.. looking for feedback of my charts, participating, etc. I funded my live account in March. The study notes I made were going back to all of Damian YouTube videos and making notes in my notebook. With the quote above, every weekend I would go back 5-10 years of data on the YM and use the playback feature on Ninjatrader. Unfornately, that no longer works for me since I’ve studied the previous moves and swings YM makes I almost know them off by heart. So live trading is my daily learning. Now, over the weekends I go over my previous trades during the week prior and write down things that I need to improve on for the next trading week.
  • #42,973
  • Sep 10, 2018 6:36am Sep 10, 2018 6:36am
good evening traders....currently watching the GBP/USD 1m, waiting for price to drop to structure and 78.6 fib for a long opportunity...anyone else got this on their eye on this one too???
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  • #42,974
  • Edited 10:20am Sep 10, 2018 9:00am | Edited 10:20am
Today's pre-session analysis. 1:1 completion. looking for a deep pullback to 61.8%.
Market is ranging now. not sure if i should be entering for longs at the 61.8%.
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Price corrected to the longer term 618, and i got stopped out in the process.
  • #42,975
  • Sep 10, 2018 9:05am Sep 10, 2018 9:05am
Morning all, Trades I took so far this morning +123 total . Hope everyone had a good weekend
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Always Learning
  • #42,976
  • Sep 10, 2018 10:03am Sep 10, 2018 10:03am
eurusd short lond term trade[attach]Screenshot (26).png;
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  • #42,977
  • Sep 10, 2018 10:03am Sep 10, 2018 10:03am
US30 long from 100% correction of swing up
Good previous buying zone beneath.
Bears were struggling a bit so I took it after a good rotation candle.
Not aiming for a full 1:1 to the upside though, a 61.8 correction was the target (because we're in the range).
Put my SL beyond the buying zone.
Then came a strong bear candle and a dip beyond the 100% correction line.
Candle was rejected in the blue buying zone, price went up a little, giving me opportunity to exit the trade at BE.

edit: it is not a very heroic story with kiss from the princess and a pot of gold in the end but it's what happened

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  • #42,978
  • Sep 10, 2018 10:45am Sep 10, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Crazy market today guys. I will post my chart at the end but not going good
I look forward to learning from your charts and how you mark them up according to the rules that you are teaching us here on the thread.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #42,979
  • Sep 10, 2018 11:28am Sep 10, 2018 11:28am
Hi everyone, took 2 trades today, i traded only the immediate orderflow
+88
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  • #42,980
  • Sep 10, 2018 12:21pm Sep 10, 2018 12:21pm
1 Loser (-22)
1 Winner (+39)

Trade 1
When I got to the chart, price already completed a 1:1 harmonic to the upside.

Expectation = NSH

P2 > P1

M2 = M1

I projected the correction forward (white line) for a medium correction to be expected. However, I noticed some breakdown and price being unable to break structure to the upside (white arrows) which weakened the case for a NSH. If I wanted to speculate for a NSH I needed a better R/R for that and so I waited for a deeper correction which I got. I entered with the intention to aggressively manage this trade (move S/L to B/E at the 38.2 and take profit at the 61.8), because of the breakdown. Price went a little in my favor, but eventually hit my S/L.

Trade 2
When price made a NSL, the expectation changed and I was looking for a NSL on the IOF.

Expectation = NSL

P2 < P1

M2 = M1

Projection decreased, so I was looking for a deeper correction which I got. Entered at a rotation and trailed the 1:1.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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