Automation: Most traders can't follow systems

The human brain is a poor judge of risk. If bitten once , it is shy twice to take on trades, it is loss aversion.100 losses is not a problem , I have allowed for 1200 in a row.

I would invest £500 k , if I had it, because I believe in it.I have devised EAS with 50 % hit rate , providing 2,000 pips a month or about 75 % a year .These work fine in forward tests, so I have no reason to not trust them, because these have very high probability trades.

I even have loss recovery modules, plus the eas trade with a 65/35 edge skewed in favour of EAS. I have been forwards testing them for 4 months and they are now getting touches of final varnish.

My eas are very advanced , they shut at the slightest smell of smoke.

What else, let me help you. How much do they cost?

Priceless, you can all go to mql4 site spend $1,000 and trade automatically for life. This would include a trade manager , normal several EAS templates and several indicators.

Here is a job specification sample for a new EA.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=819026

Well then perhaps its best to rectify whats causing it at its roots?

Well if thats the case doesnt that just proved your point wrong about ea being able to get rid of the fear? First you have to have confidence in the results? Hence alliviating the fear as there is always the chance to be wrong 1200 times in a row.

Btw whats the difference between that and getting 80 people to mechanically execute the trades of each system and tell them its a game?

The only point im making is, to not misinform people about how to "get rid of fear". You will never go far if you bring that mindset in. Even if you are trading an ea, the markets will test your confidence, and thats what i mean by getting rid of the fear. Confidence and competence will bring you further.

Its a valid strategy if it works. But best you get to know the full risk you are taking on lest it leads you down a long dark road.

Many years ago I hired people to trade systems , none of them could do it , I then learnt trading psychology and why they can't do it. I have written my experience in many psychology blogs. Humans still have the same psychological issues, whether trading their own systems with their own money or paid to operate systems. Try it and you will learn more.

80 people on $2m wages ?

With all due respect to everybody , the traders I hired behaved like idiots ,these were their psychological flaws during execution.The traders were not idiots ,but had psychological biases.


Economist Wins Genius Grant For Proving That Most Traders Are Idiots

https://www.businessinsider.com/colin-camerer-wins-genius-grant-2013-9?IR=T

MUST NOT ACT LIKE A TRADING IDIOT

Does not follow systems

Claims to see system trades when that do not exist

Dwells on past trades and does execute current opportunities

Disappears on Skype for 5 minutes to 30 minutes , sometimes hours

Misses loads of system trades and creates chaos in trading operation

Idiot gives stupid arguments and wastes valuable trading time

Is a nuisance during trading hours

Puts on revenge trades

Puts on non system trades

Puts on counter trend trades

Does not like working for others

Has deep rooted beliefs ,ego and personality that works against employer.

Does not provide dedicated time , input and service to employer

Thinks he is smarter than the system and employer and wants to change everything and always keeps looking for other better set ups

Puts on low probability trades and does not do adequate vetting of trading opportunities

The trading idiot believes in a 100% profitable system , with no losses.

The idiot has found a no loss profitable system.

The idiot has no common decency or etiquette

The idiot makes mistakes and disrupts the whole trading operation

The idiot repeats the same mistake over and over again

The idiot will keep chasing trades , despite being told not to chase.

The idiot wasted everybody's time and energies.

The idiot promised a lot , but delivered nothing.

The idiot talks about profits but delivers losses

The idiot does not take the next trade ,because last trade was a losing trade.

The idiot solves private issues during trading time

The idiot's mind wanders off all day , missing system trades and inputting Non system trades

The idiot sees no system trades , but trades actually exist.

The. Idiot left us with experiences of a trading idiot

Somebody teaches the idiot the right things , but the idiot does not want to listen.

The idiot trades on his whims and fancies and hallucinations

This idiot now wants to trade on his hallucinations

The idiot has no discipline

The idiot fears putting on trades , just cause he fears losses

The idiot freezes at time of entry and is immobilized by beliefs and emotions

The idiot fears momentum trades or swing trades , and sometimes both types of trades and misses trades

The trading idiot hesitates to put on trades , due to fears and emotions , and misses trades

The trading idiot second guesses the system and misses trades

The trading idiot thinks the system is crap

The trading idiot has an ego that makes him a failure

The trading idiot wants to contradict his system

This trading idiot is full of shit , his mind is full of crap.fire him.

The idiot of trading will contaminate execution with their own beliefs, egos , judgement ,opinions , comments , views ,fear , greed , hesitation with entries and other psychological issues and personal issues

The idiot misses trades

The idiot is trying to protect pips and as a result misses trades

The idiot is late putting on trades , has late entries.

The idiot can predict the market

The idiot is in a confused state of mind

Contamination of execution of trade entries.

The following are the issues created regularly during trading time , with regular disruptions to trading activities , with those wasting valuable trading time and energies of everybody else.So here are the clarifications in advance .The job is to follow the systems and execute trades , in a timely manner in real time.Those who keep creating the following issues on a regular basis will be fired.

I am no longer interested in listening to issues from traders , I have no time to waste with idiotic issues I have been getting for last 6 months .Here are many of these idiotic issues raised.

When you put on a trade , only technical analysis set up for entry has to be valid , we have no knowledge of the outcome of the particular trade ,therefore we can not pick and choose which set up will fail and which set up will succeed.We Can therefore not choose to second guess the system , and not process the system trade. Anybody second guessing the system will be fired.

Our beliefs are our own beliefs , they should not contaminate the entry ,if we believe the trade will not succeed and decide not to execute the trade entry, our belief has no place in the system.We should therefore proceed with entry.The fact that a previous similar set up failed and lost pips , has no relevance to the outcome of the next set up.

Our fear of not being right about the trade ,will contaminate our view about the valid system signal. If the technical analysis set shows a valid trade entry, then the trade is a right trade , we should not override a system signal with our opinion or view about the trade due to our fears.

We fear losses as it could hurt my reputation for calling high probability trades , if the trade is a failure or a loss , I fear my reputation will be tarnished.Your fears are not included In the system ,your fears or reputation are not part of the system and they should not Contaminate perfect execution of the system entry signals.The system has many losses , almost 25 percent of trades can be losses or failures ,this is acceptable part of trading.
The easy looking trades , we do not fear putting on , are most often the losers.There is no such thing as an easy trade , the difficult trades are the ones that are most likely to profit.

I am still dwelling on the last trade which was profitable , the last trade is finished , it is time to move on to the next trade .I want to know why the last trade was profitable and I want to experiment on other similar trades.You are paid to follow systems , process technical analysis signals for entry , and sometimes manage trades.You are not paid to dwell on past trades , whilst missing new entries and wasting paid time.You are not paid to experiment on newer systems and trades , at the expense of our newer entry signals.

I like to pick and choose trades , and like to be picky about entries and outcomes.Trading is a probabilities game , one has no knowledge prior to any technical analysis set up ,if it better than a cleaner looking set up or worse than a slightly uglier looking set up , therefore we can not be picky on particular trades that fit the system entry criteria.cognitive biases tests have shown our minds see only what they are looking for , they do not want to see the more difficult trades with the higher success rate.There is random distribution of success rates of ugly ,clean and mediocre set ups , so what gives the power to pick and choose the ones with the most success ratios or override system signals?

Many Consecutive Losers and winners are affecting my emotions and psych.There is random distribution of profits and losses , 10 to 15 consecutive winners or losers or 10 to 15 consecutive winners in a drawdown/ losing period is normal.It is part of most trading.
Does a series of of 10 to 15 losses , either in a sequence or in a drawdown / losing period , indicate the system is poor , bad or useless?Does it reflect on the trader?It does not indicate a poor system or system fault , often this is due to market conditions being adverse to the system , a failure of traders to execute the system or a combination of both.If the system is being followed by the trader , it does not at all reflect on on the trader.

I miss trades regularly , due to too many trades being triggered at the same session , within minutes of each other.It is normal to take on 2 to 3 trades , within an hourly period , as it is too difficult to process more than than 2 to 3 trades.Out of our weekly 50 signals , we are expected to take 35 signals .

I miss trades regularly because I am constantly looking at many finer details (noise) , listening to distracting phone calls from friends , distracting news , handling my personal issues during paid trading time and generally being distracted at home during trading hours.Your job is not to look at finer details , until a set up has materialised on the higher time frames.Constant distractions and undedicated and unfocused attention to trading will lead to missed trades .This is not a fault of the system but your own personality and mindset.

I find it difficult to follow systems , like most people .I often put on discretionary non system trades like momentum trades , revenge trades and unfiltered system trades.Not everybody is suited to system following , either become disciplined and use breathing , yoga , exercises and or meditate.

I keep dwelling on past set ups and my mind wanders off regularly in search of better systems, set ups and thoughts of contradicting the system , and Technical analysis and the failure of technical analysis set ups .Your mind should be dedicated to looking at charts and looking for system fit set ups.All the work of looking for new systems , thoughts of contradicting the technical analysis and looking for newer set ups and methods has been done , and it is not your job to do this.Your job is to follow systems and stop your mind from wandering away from dedicated focus on looking for new trades.You are not doing the job , you are paid to do , people who do not do their jobs get fired.


I am not an emotionless robot and can not execute trades like a robot.The job is for people with appropriate psyche and mental skills ,who can execute trades unemotionally with flawless execution of the system. , without regard to outcome of trades or judging set ups for entry.This job does not suit people with emotional deregulation during execution.

Do not think before placing a trade , thinking and thoughts have enormous power to become reality in trading execution.Do not think negatively in trading ,it will prevent you from placing trades and make you hesitant in placing a trade , and loads of trades will be missed.

Failure of previous set ups or success of previous set ups have no relevance to the outcome of next set up.

If I miss trades , and somebody else puts on trades or three people put on the same trade , then we can have 3 losing trades from three people at the same time .Two out of three people are wasting valuable energies on same task , instead of expending it on other set ups and instruments, due to incompetence of the prime trader who missed the trade in the first place.The first trader should be fired due to incompetence.

If I achieve my weekly target of 40 pips , can I try to protect my pips and not take on further trades or hesitate to take on further trades and miss them?No!Some weeks will show. 40 to 100 pips , other weeks will show -30 to 40 pips profit , so we can not stop taking trades to protect pips ,that is not your job ,your job is to call out trade entries.Some weeks are bad and others are great , but they average out at 35 pips per session .Some months can be bad , others can be great , so we can not cap our profits on good days ,weeks and months.

Traders have a lot of personal beliefs , for example one believes they are a swing trader , so they will no place trades on momentum trades.There are many other personal beliefs which prevent traders from executing trades , delaying/hesitant execution and missing trades.

I look for trades which show me certainly , as to where prices are going and will reach there.i like to be sure about my trades , hence fewer trades and more missed trades.I like to put on trades , where I know the outcome of trades.I like to put on trades and use set ups and systems without losses.There are no such set ups without losses, this is what trading idiots believe and look for in trading ......surety , the length of the move of the next trade, holy grail set ups without losses and a free lunch in the market , and lastly no one knows the outcomes of trades.

If traders contaminate execution with their own beliefs, egos , judgement ,opinions , comments , views ,fear , greed , hesitation with entries and other psychological issues and personal issues, there is no way the systems can be operated successfully as the traders are preventing successful implementation of system. Trading is 80 percent psychology
And mindset of trader which prevents traders from executing trades correctly , and messing up .

I like to second guess system and not put on system trades , because I think the system has flaws and is crap.I am smarter than the system and I am not comfortable with the system and it's flaws.The system is to be followed , not second guessed by a clueless idiot of trading.The job here is for following the system , not paid to argue about second guessing the system.

I have not made any pips this week or the last few weeks , and I feel bad about the results.The daily trading log is for keeping a record of performance of trader.The purpose behind the log is to asses the number of trades and the type of trades put on by trader.The pips performance is not important ,because it is the system which makes pips , the trader does not make any pips.
Pips performance is irrelevant for those following only the system , to the best of their abilities , it is relevant for those who are incompetent at this job and regularly miss trades due to their mindset. The trader just follows the system , the pips is the performance of the system not the trader , so just follow the system.

I prepare the entry signals , but somebody else manages the trade and exits.Do the results reflect on me?No!You are just following the system ,the system earns or loses pips , not you because you do not earn the pips.The pips results reflect on the system .

The pips are the market pips ,they do not belong to anybody.Either we are a bunch of clueless traders who always give pips to the market , or the smarter traders who take pips from the market.We have a system which takes pips from the market , if we can not take pips fom the market ,we have problems in the mind which prevent us from taking the system pips.


The system is 16 / 18 systems packed into one , it is many systems put together.No!it is a flexible system with multiple entry and exit options , whichever option materialises first can be taken.


The system and it's rules are in my opinion crap and I like to change them and bend them regularly.I am too intelligent to work like a moron who follows profitable systems , I can do better than than that and use my intelligence to improve , devise and change systems .My track record shows my poor performance , because the human brain is not wired to trade , and my inability to follow systems like an obedient assistant. Successful trading does not require intelligence , it requires moronic assistants who can follow systems without using their poor trading wired mind.

Trading and successful trading is a simple process , it is the mindset of the trader which prevents them from being successful, they complicate it as listed above with all the issues and problems they create.

I like to argue my view points ,opinions , thoughts , beliefs and agendas during trading time .I like to show my intelligence and show how clever I am by wasting everybody's trading time and energies , with stupid arguments .Only idiots waste other people's time , the policy is to fire idiots who create disruptions.

If you read this blog , not my blog, you will understand trading is 100% psychological.

http://www.rookietrader.com/psychology/graemes-trading-blog-review-of-van-tharp/

same system given to 20 traders will produce 20 different results.

ONCE you have a proper method to place the trade and manage the positions then yea, trading its 100% psychological BUT ONLY AFTER you have the proper mechanical (repetable) profitable system and a good position management

Funny thing its that the actual trading process goes AGAINST the human nature, thats why its so difficult for the vast majority to do it

The human brain look for safety, its risk adverse, dont like to loose, dont like uncertanty, dont like to lose and ALWAYS want to find logic and predictability to anything that happens..


I came to Understand this point when i had to make this work, living on a extreme country with a crazy economy, where the minimun wage its 2$ PER MONTH i just could not fail, it was not an option!! thats where i had to put my trades follow my method, TURN OFF MY BRAIN and just dont give a damn about the result !!! what matters TO ME its to follow my 2 rules EXACTLY and nothing else..

And go figure.. the positive numbers, the account growing started to come true and i was so worried and OVER THINKING everything before that !! how dumb ass i was

Perhaps because they have never trained themselves to become psychologically strong?

I'm already trading and that's why I'm telling you, better to work off of a good core, proper foundation.

I definitely don't dispute the results, but what I'm saying is the root cause of the problem is still not solved, only delayed.

I think you just validated my point? Because you cannot compare complete rookies to highly experienced traders, you will get negative results. Experienced traders train to be disciplined. Rookies aren't.

There is 1 thing that robots don't have which experienced traders have, which is intuition to changing market condition and the necessary means to adapt to it.

What is a proper good foundation?

You like most people have a misconception of robots in trading.Take a look at this mercedes factory robots , and ask yourself a question "why are their robots successful? If most robots fail , there is something going horribly wrong with traders.

Your beliefs about trading robots is an example of beliefs, most 99 % of traders have these misconceptions.Robots in Mercedes factory don't change to adapt to different tasks , different robots are used.There are thousands of robots used.

You can learn on internet searches "why most trading robots fail, why eas robots fail?.
Why do most trading robots (EAS) fail?

99 % of traders lose , there are polls here showing 90 % lose due to psychology

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc

So a bunch of people , about 6 of them , after given proper profitable systems,like this system below failed to follow it. I have automated this system and it works fine.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=805676

Humans are born with a brain, a brain that is wired to lose in the markets.Trading is 100% psychological, as soon as you are born. Trading systems etc are taught after you were born.I did not want to send you to this site , but the information is there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_of_the_brain

http://ibankcoin.com/hattery/wired-to-lose-the-psychology-of-trading/#sthash.KStxXQYB.dpbs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2qyBZzpF4w

A good foundation is maybe what havo wrote above?
When you need to succeed and there is no way out then you have a good foundation to work on.

So you are saying that you need an adaptation module to properly direct the different eas to work properly.

Well most eas fail because they cannot adapt to changing market environment.

The best quant funds I know always have quants tweaking and checking if their models work and that is the discretion they have to put in. They cannot let it trade blind, it is always managed.

Hmm you seem to have not gotten my message though, I agree with you that whatever you wrote are facts, but what I'm saying is, that it is alot better to retrain your mind to handle risk and uncertainty, than it is to just avoid it altogether.

You don't understand how robots work , I will explain briefly because each robot is coded with precise accurate execution.

As an example I have two different systems , I have 75 of them.

One buys at support and one buy a price action set up , the support EA has to be coded to buy at support , the support trade many not materialize for weeks or months depending on time frames and related moving averages + other conditions , but every few months I get a trade on the exact precise logic , same applies to price action + related entry conditions based on time frames etc , even the price action precise entry EA will not get more than 1 trade a week or month.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=802780

I get your message now.

psychology is more important than systems or technical

survey proved it

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8824

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11416557#post11416557


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2U2w7jgyV4

you dont need a robot to "adapt" it just need to trade a good/repetable setup/conditions with a high probability EVERY SINGLE TIME.. thats it

you dont NEED to be "always on" in the market, thats a noob way of thinking (no offense)

A robot will cost you $1,000 , sitting at a desk will lose you 10 years of your life. $1,000 for 10 healthy years of living , automation is the key.

Desk jobs: How to prevent serious illness from sitting too long

http://express.co.uk/life-style/health/856034/desk-job-office-sitting-too-long-serious-illness

Setups come and go, innate understanding of how the market moves and how to manage out of such markets is key.

Probabilities can change according to the participant profile changes, for example Forex markets are different from stock markets and some setups work better on Forex than stock, while some work better in stocks than Forex. However if the players changes, then those may shift to work well in Forex instead of stocks.

Non taken, but "always" depends on your edge, so I wouldn't say anything abt always.