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Systematic Trend Trading

  • #361
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:36pm Sep 7, 2018 4:36pm
Trade 173, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179 stopped

Trade 180 running

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-09-07 at 22.34.36.png Size: 40 KB
tradewith60
  • #362
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:38pm Sep 7, 2018 4:38pm
Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
Week 12 +6
Week 13 +14R
Week 14 -3R
Week 15 +15R
Week 16 +19R
Week 17 -6R
tradewith60
  • #363
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:17pm Sep 7, 2018 5:17pm
1 win followed by 13 consecutive losers this week... nothing unusual in that.
tradewith60
  • #364
  • Sep 7, 2018 7:07pm Sep 7, 2018 7:07pm
Technical break down for the coming week...

"The market will not go up unless it goes up, nor will it go down unless it goes down, and it will stay the same unless it does either. -George Goodman"
tradewith60
  • #365
  • Sep 9, 2018 7:34am Sep 9, 2018 7:34am
Quoting 60minuteman
1 win followed by 13 consecutive losers this week... nothing unusual in that.
Zen master trader 60! I'm not able to take that many losses in a row and think that's normal, yet! I am beginning to realise that this is what is necessary for the big gains it's just I need to go through the pain and pleasure of the losses and wins first-hand.
  • #366
  • Sep 9, 2018 7:40am Sep 9, 2018 7:40am
Quoting 60minuteman
Technical break down for the coming week... "The market will not go up unless it goes up, nor will it go down unless it goes down, and it will stay the same unless it does either. -George Goodman"
This quote kind of makes me think about a number of trading videos I've seen that talk about using 3 different time frames, e.g. daily, 4h and 15 min for entry. Some educators say that you can predict a short term 15 min candle move in relation to the daily and 4H time (when combined with a candlestick pattern) frame but basically it either goes up or down and no amount of multi time frame analysis and candle stick pattern combination. Way too many ducks to line up and probably does not improve the win rate.
  • #367
  • Sep 9, 2018 8:14am Sep 9, 2018 8:14am
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} Zen master trader 60! I'm not able to take that many losses in a row and think that's normal, yet! I am beginning to realise that this is what is necessary for the big gains it's just I need to go through the pain and pleasure of the losses and wins first-hand.
Have a read of this.... This is the reality for us and for institutional investors

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Liquid Alt Ragnarok.pdf   696 KB | 658 downloads
tradewith60
  • #368
  • Sep 9, 2018 8:17am Sep 9, 2018 8:17am
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} This quote kind of makes me think about a number of trading videos I've seen that talk about using 3 different time frames, e.g. daily, 4h and 15 min for entry. Some educators say that you can predict a short term 15 min candle move in relation to the daily and 4H time (when combined with a candlestick pattern) frame but basically it either goes up or down and no amount of multi time frame analysis and candle stick pattern combination. Way too many ducks to line up and probably does not improve the win rate.
Yes I've done it, we probably all have done it, you tweak the entry, you tweak the moving average and you affect very little change in performance. The one factor that always has a distinct effect (of the factors you can actually control) is the management of the trade, here is where you see the most dramatic effect to performance.

You don't have to be as extreme as me either, simply moving to b.e after 3R and then some sort of trail still shows a good persistent edge and less consecutive losers than I get... but you will always have more than feels comfortable, because more than 3 feels wrong to any of us.
tradewith60
  • #369
  • Sep 9, 2018 10:03am Sep 9, 2018 10:03am
“…in any probabilistic exercise: the frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters…. even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters…. Internalizing this lesson, on the other hand, is difficult because it runs against human nature in a very fundamental way.”

https://25iq.com/2018/09/08/risk-unc...rd-zeckhauser/
tradewith60
  • #370
  • Sep 9, 2018 10:45am Sep 9, 2018 10:45am
The momentum factor is based on buy high, sell higher or alternatively, cut your losses and let your winners run. Value investing is based on a long-term reversion to the mean. Momentum investing is based on that gap in time that exists before mean reversion occurs. Value is a long game, while momentum is usually seen in the short- to intermediate-term… And it is a terrible idea to chase performance if you don’t know what you’re doing or why you’re doing it. Momentum is chasing performance, but in a systematic way, with an entry and exit strategy in place. Momentum tries to take advantage of performance chasers who are making emotional decisions. This is why the best momentum investors use a rules-based approach, to avoid those emotions.”

https://25iq.com/2015/07/25/a-dozen-...g-and-trading/
tradewith60
  • #371
  • Sep 10, 2018 12:09am Sep 10, 2018 12:09am
This Person share Montecarlo Simulator, useful to predict maximum consecutive losses, average drawdown etc
by simulating 200 trade 500 times

Monte Carlo Simulator
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=582578

try playing around with the setting and you will know that variance is huuuge
(variance is win loss sequence, distribution of win and loss eg 50% winrate is not distributed as 1 win after 1 loss in a lot of times, but it can be 10 loss then 5 win then 19 loss then 25 win etc, where on 25 win you'd feel like a god and 19 loss would make you feel like total sh*t, yeah god of probability is very humorous)
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #372
  • Sep 10, 2018 1:54am Sep 10, 2018 1:54am
Quoting danzka
This Person share Montecarlo Simulator, useful to predict maximum consecutive losses, average drawdown etc by simulating 200 trade 500 times Monte Carlo Simulator https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=582578 try playing around with the setting and you will know that variance is huuuge (variance is win loss sequence, distribution of win and loss eg 50% winrate is not distributed as 1 win after 1 loss in a lot of times, but it can be 10 loss then 5 win then 19 loss then 25 win etc, where on 25 win you'd feel like a god and 19 loss...
Thank's Danzka, really important to understand this....
tradewith60
  • #373
  • Sep 10, 2018 9:43am Sep 10, 2018 9:43am
Simple trend/direction filter and 5:1 RR.... But people want to complicate it and feel they know better than the best.

https://mebfaber.com/2014/11/06/paul...oving-average/
tradewith60
  • #374
  • Sep 10, 2018 9:58am Sep 10, 2018 9:58am

  1. “The model never varies. It never has an ego problem; it never has a fight with its spouse; it never wants to prove that it’s right. The model is never hung-over after a night of partying — it just does the same thing, time and time again. Very boring, very profitable.”

tradewith60
  • #375
  • Edited 11:16am Sep 11, 2018 10:38am | Edited 11:16am
"Unless you are willing to tolerate the ups and downs and stick with your strategy over the long term, then you can't expect to achieve attractive returns in the market. Patience is not only a virtue, but even a necessity when it comes to investing."

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/7...ting-long-term

* dont make the mistake of thinking it doesn't apply to forex or day trading - it's the same game
tradewith60
  • #376
  • Sep 11, 2018 3:37pm Sep 11, 2018 3:37pm
I'm always banging on about luck but never that good at explaining why it is important.... thankfully someone has done it for me

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/ironies-of-luck/
tradewith60
  • #377
  • Sep 11, 2018 3:50pm Sep 11, 2018 3:50pm
1. Short
2. Miss TP by a few pips
3. Long
4. Miss tp by 1 pip
5. stopped out by 1 pip before price reverses

Attached Image


This is bad luck and you do nothing... just continue to execute your model. Never change your process based on a short run of bad luck!!!
tradewith60
  • #378
  • Sep 11, 2018 6:15pm Sep 11, 2018 6:15pm
Quoting 60minuteman
1. Short 2. Miss TP by a few pips 3. Long 4. Miss tp by 1 pip 5. stopped out by 1 pip before price reverses {image} This is bad luck and you do nothing... just continue to execute your model. Never change your process based on a short run of bad luck!!!
Again I can only admire your self discipline. I assume your analysis tells you that 5/6/7 R isn’t as profitable over time?

Have you run a demo forward test using 5/6/7R TP and trailing at 1/2 R behind?
  • #379
  • Sep 11, 2018 6:29pm Sep 11, 2018 6:29pm
Quoting CandleSurfer
{quote} Again I can only admire your self discipline. I assume your analysis tells you that 5/6/7 R isn’t as profitable over time? Have you run a demo forward test using 5/6/7R TP and trailing at 1/2 R behind?
Actually 5,6,7R are all good but at some point you need to hang your hat on one option or another. There is no problem with updating your choice when you have overwhelming evidence to suggest it is wise, and in fact that is exactly what we should do. What we should not do is make changes based on small data samples.

We are very skilled at looking at events like the last few days and quickly deciding that we have found a better strategy - but it is very rarely the case if we dig a bit deeper into the data.
tradewith60
  • #380
  • Sep 12, 2018 5:16am Sep 12, 2018 5:16am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Actually 5,6,7R are all good but at some point you need to hang your hat on one option or another. There is no problem with updating your choice when you have overwhelming evidence to suggest it is wise, and in fact that is exactly what we should do. What we should not do is make changes based on small data samples. We are very skilled at looking at events like the last few days and quickly deciding that we have found a better strategy - but it is very rarely the case if we dig a bit deeper into the data.

I'm trying break even at 2R and trailing 2R behind from 5R. Consequently been stopped out several times though with 3R...a bit worried these wins wont cover all the losses.
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