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Systematic Trend Trading

  • #341
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:52pm Sep 4, 2018 1:52pm
Quoting 60minuteman
Trade 166 +7R Trade 167,168,169,170,171,172 stopped {image}
Was this the trade you were considering closing at 4R?
  • #342
  • Sep 4, 2018 4:55pm Sep 4, 2018 4:55pm
"According to the authors, up to 45% of investor's behavior is genetic and *is impervious to education.* Meaning, no matter how many times you tell them about the various biases, it will never sink in."
tradewith60
  • #343
  • Sep 4, 2018 4:55pm Sep 4, 2018 4:55pm
Quoting CandleSurfer
{quote} Was this the trade you were considering closing at 4R?
yes, got my target just before it reversed. I wasn't considering closing it early, I rarely do that anymore. I was picturing it breaking down to 15-20R but I do that with every trade
tradewith60
  • #344
  • Sep 4, 2018 5:07pm Sep 4, 2018 5:07pm
No short cuts... get over that one and you can start the process of growing your account.
tradewith60
  • #345
  • Sep 5, 2018 2:28am Sep 5, 2018 2:28am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} well, you can have 99% win rate and still look like that
Yes it’s called grid trading lol
  • #346
  • Sep 5, 2018 3:02am Sep 5, 2018 3:02am
If losses are a problem you can just widen your stop and trail, you will have a lower average RR but a higher win rate. You adjust position size accordingly and be patient. The technical elements should still remain simple.

Nick Radge has a very long record of profitability trading this way

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tradewith60
  • #347
  • Sep 5, 2018 12:29pm Sep 5, 2018 12:29pm
Hi 60Minuteman, I'm still mentally processing the high risk reward trading like this,

with this my thought process seems very clear
I only plan the Money Management
enter with any method I know, InsideBar, PinBar, London Break, support become resistance etc etc doesn't matter
then do the exit I planned,
winrate doesn't matter anymore since its most likely will be low or very low, and the Reward I get offset it
even more so when you have a low risk entry like you do plus pyramid position, any 200ish ticks move will get R multiple really high
executing seems to be much easier since I already expect it to be a loss right away

I slowly focus more into Risk Reward, Entry, Exit, Money Management which all are certain and controllable
while winrate is not it changes over time and ironically many of us including me are so obsessed with
and with winrate out of the thought process it seems to give so much clarity to my head
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #348
  • Sep 5, 2018 2:28pm Sep 5, 2018 2:28pm
Quoting danzka
Hi 60Minuteman, I'm still mentally processing the high risk reward trading like this, with this my thought process seems very clear I only plan the Money Management enter with any method I know, InsideBar, PinBar, London Break, support become resistance etc etc doesn't matter then do the exit I planned, winrate doesn't matter anymore since its most likely will be low or very low, and the Reward I get offset it even more so when you have a low risk entry like you do plus pyramid position, any 200ish ticks move will get R multiple really high executing...
Hi Danzka, went through the very same process myself. Some of the mental barriers we set are actually easy to overcome by just doing it, and it can open up a whole new way of thinking about the problem.
Very true about the entry process too, we naturally obsess about it so never actually question how important it really is.

When I started digging more into it I found more and more professional traders, funds etc using very simple strategies, I felt stupid for missing what was right in front of my face for so long. I then spent time going back through all the systems I had given up on and found they all performed well if I just sorted out the trade management.

Please feel free to post on the thread, happy to have like minded traders here...
tradewith60
  • #349
  • Sep 5, 2018 9:37pm Sep 5, 2018 9:37pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} ...I felt stupid for missing what was right in front of my face for so long. I then spent time going back through all the systems I had given up on and found they all performed well if I just sorted out the trade management....
I'm in this phase for the last couple days

sure I'll post when I have something
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #350
  • Sep 6, 2018 3:31am Sep 6, 2018 3:31am
Attached Image
tradewith60
  • #351
  • Sep 6, 2018 3:41am Sep 6, 2018 3:41am
All these equity curves had 17% win rate and average RR of 6R - what you never know is what sequence the winners and losers will come in.(well, you never know your win rate either, you only know what it was) Get your position size wrong and some sequences will kill you

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tradewith60
  • #352
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:10am Sep 6, 2018 4:10am
good thread !
  • #353
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:17am Sep 6, 2018 4:17am
You think you know what your win rate is, but you don't know. You think you know the best exit, but you don't know... The fastest and easiest way to be right is to accept you don't know.
tradewith60
  • #354
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:28am Sep 6, 2018 4:28am
Quoting 60minuteman
You think you know what your win rate is, but you don't know. You think you know the best exit, but you don't know... The fastest and easiest way to be right is to accept you don't know.
zen trading rules !


I found myself very relaxed, even though I'm trading $600, it sill hard earned money... by giving up yep

but the ea is still running
  • #355
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:37am Sep 6, 2018 4:37am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} zen trading rules ! I found myself very relaxed, even though I'm trading $600, it sill hard earned money... by giving up yep but the ea is still running
Yes it is, money on the line is money on the line... Once you accept the outcome is uncertain you can go about the process, traders who know the outcome are the ones that blow up.
tradewith60
  • #356
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:42am Sep 6, 2018 4:42am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Yes it is, money on the line is money on the line... Once you accept the outcome is uncertain you can go about the process, traders who know the outcome are the ones that blow up.
willing to succedd at all costs.. recipe for disaster!
  • #357
  • Sep 6, 2018 6:26am Sep 6, 2018 6:26am
what is the win rate for a coin flip? 50% right?

* credit to Rivo for data and chart

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tradewith60
  • #358
  • Sep 6, 2018 11:01am Sep 6, 2018 11:01am
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tradewith60
  • #359
  • Sep 7, 2018 11:03am Sep 7, 2018 11:03am
Quoting 60minuteman
If you are still at the stage where you believe analysis is the answer this is a simple system that might make you consider things differently. 1. If the previous week closed bullish only long this week. If the previous week closed bearish only short this week. 2. Once direction is decided (that was your analysis part) wait for a H4 bar to close in agreement with the direction of your analysis. If long buy at the high of the bullish closed H4 bar and set your stop at the low, if short sell at the low of the bearish closed H4 bar with a stop at the...

All of those examples show amazing results and not even for a full year (?).

One thing which intrigues me is the Gold 2018 chart had the lowest R return of the bunch but clearly the most obvious looking downward trend for the latter half of the year . Whereas the charts with NO pattern (of the Mesopotamian sheep liver reading technical analyst variety) have a larger R return. I wonder why?
  • #360
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:32pm Sep 7, 2018 4:32pm
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} All of those examples show amazing results and not even for a full year (?). One thing which intrigues me is the Gold 2018 chart had the lowest R return of the bunch but clearly the most obvious looking downward trend for the latter half of the year . Whereas the charts with NO pattern (of the Mesopotamian sheep liver reading technical analyst variety) have a larger R return. I wonder why?
Gold had good market conditions but just bad luck, just missing tp's or just retracing enough to take the trail out. Minute variations can make huge differences when you hold trades for high RR, the important thing to know is that our job is to make sure we stay alive long enough for the odds to play in our favour, and because we limit downsides and have unbounded upsides we will capitalise on the good luck sooner or later.... when the shock comes it will be a massive winner and not a massive loser!
tradewith60
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