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AUD/USD

  • #104,341
  • Sep 5, 2018 7:07am Sep 5, 2018 7:07am
Quoting FxProsper
{quote} On weekly there is a completed one too...now these patterns are not surefire like we know, but I am long on AUD/USD, just don't tell lasty about this, he will suggest to go short AUD/USD targeting 0.0000 lasty, your pessimism up until now carries credit as it reflects in the price of AUD/USD, i respect that, and nice call btw. You are a better trader than me in that aspect since I think any price sub 0.75 is a good buy on AUD/USD, But this pair is so oversold now its not even funny. I like it when pairs reach such levels as it gives...
I think it looks bearish.
not the chart but the oanda order book is bearish.
below 0.71 there are many short orders.
i imagine even the bulls want price there.
  • #104,342
  • Sep 5, 2018 7:22am Sep 5, 2018 7:22am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} I think it looks bearish. not the chart but the oanda order book is bearish. below 0.71 there are many short orders. i imagine even the bulls want price there.
Hi longshot, two questions if you do not mind: First, how can you access the order book there and second - does that help as forex is a decentralized market?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #104,343
  • Sep 5, 2018 9:34am Sep 5, 2018 9:34am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hi longshot, two questions if you do not mind: First, how can you access the order book there and second - does that help as forex is a decentralized market?
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...rex-order-book

this one is better
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...rder-indicator

It is just an orderbook of oanda so its just an indicator and has not taken the full market in to account but just oanda's clients orders.
but they have a lot of clients so i think its a good indicator anyway.
  • #104,344
  • Sep 5, 2018 9:44am Sep 5, 2018 9:44am
a/u is going up. jfyi
  • #104,345
  • Sep 5, 2018 10:31am Sep 5, 2018 10:31am
Quoting longshot_nl
{quote} https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...rex-order-book this one is better https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/...rder-indicator It is just an orderbook of oanda so its just an indicator and has not taken the full market in to account but just oanda's clients orders. but they have a lot of clients so i think its a good indicator anyway.
Thanks, I will have a look at it. Looks like a market profile / point of control thing at the first glance lol
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #104,346
  • Sep 7, 2018 12:36am Sep 7, 2018 12:36am
AUDUSD needs only 1 more leg down to make lower low and it will bounce hard all the way to 0.7400

I expect the area between 0.7090 to 0.6950 to provide the support needed for the bounce

so no selling anymore for me. only look for a good support to buy
  • #104,347
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:33am Sep 7, 2018 1:33am
I have to agree with the above. i think the aud will bounce looks like some selling pressure has kicked in but wont last.
  • #104,348
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:37am Sep 7, 2018 1:37am
trend down is getting stronger.
ready to profit again.
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Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #104,349
  • Sep 8, 2018 11:58am Sep 8, 2018 11:58am
There may be a small short near term pop up but ultimately i think we will be seeing 68 cents in the future.
  • #104,350
  • Sep 8, 2018 2:39pm Sep 8, 2018 2:39pm
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Can someone explain from technical point of view why AUD/USD broke obvious wedge to downside?
Price action came to strong weekly support, created obvious wedge (which should break to upside), bullish divergence on RSI, but still price denied all this technical signs.... What is your view?
  • #104,351
  • Sep 8, 2018 7:09pm Sep 8, 2018 7:09pm
Quoting fx111
{image} {image} Can someone explain from technical point of view why AUD/USD broke obvious wedge to downside? Price action came to strong weekly support, created obvious wedge (which should break to upside), bullish divergence on RSI, but still price denied all this technical signs.... What is your view?
I admit that I don't usually use oscillators in my trading. I knew AUDUSD would fall deep because it had been in a range since end of June until 9th August, and price broke the range downwards
  • #104,352
  • Sep 9, 2018 2:31am Sep 9, 2018 2:31am
Rate differential was really only think I took notice of in this pair. With expected rate increases in USA, this down move was predicted miles away.

Unless mining takes off and the passive RBA changes it's stance, don't really expect much of a change.
Humans are naturally hardwired to avoid and detest uncertainty.
  • #104,353
  • Sep 9, 2018 3:12am Sep 9, 2018 3:12am
Quoting CannonScout
Rate differential was really only think I took notice of in this pair. With expected rate increases in USA, this down move was predicted miles away. Unless mining takes off and the passive RBA changes it's stance, don't really expect much of a change.
It is also weak against euro, jpy. so that is not the whole story.
  • #104,354
  • Sep 9, 2018 5:45am Sep 9, 2018 5:45am
The biggest thing hurting the aussie is not bullshit charts or anything like that.
simple:
1) Australia is one of the last few countries to increase rates yet banks have lifted rates anyways.
2) The USD against all pairs has been going gang busters due to Tariffs on every country.
3) Copper and other materials have been getting smashed.

But a poor aussie is really good for the economy so why not... but i think we will get to the .73 range again.
US as a country is running on thin ice.
  • #104,355
  • Sep 9, 2018 5:55am Sep 9, 2018 5:55am
Quoting fx111
{image} {image} Can someone explain from technical point of view why AUD/USD broke obvious wedge to downside? Price action came to strong weekly support, created obvious wedge (which should break to upside), bullish divergence on RSI, but still price denied all this technical signs.... What is your view?
It’s not the AUD per se, but the USD is temporarily gotten stronger across the board ... Good NFP numbers?
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #104,356
  • Sep 9, 2018 8:01pm Sep 9, 2018 8:01pm
AUD @ .7112

https://finance.nine.com.au/2018/09/...-rates-on-hold

I think NAB are on a winner here and have refrained from gouging.

More importantly they dont see any rates pressure on top side
  • #104,357
  • Sep 9, 2018 9:11pm Sep 9, 2018 9:11pm
Quoting fx111
{image} {image} Can someone explain from technical point of view why AUD/USD broke obvious wedge to downside? Price action came to strong weekly support, created obvious wedge (which should break to upside), bullish divergence on RSI, but still price denied all this technical signs.... What is your view?
If you rely on indicators your dead. they show nothing but past movements. That´s what happened. You will blow your account again and again. 99% do it all the time.
POSTMASTER
  • #104,358
  • Sep 10, 2018 12:55am Sep 10, 2018 12:55am
waiting break & stay 0.70500 sr for previous low . some bounce & time may need . Take care , fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #104,359
  • Sep 10, 2018 5:53pm Sep 10, 2018 5:53pm
https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...24cee49b40a84c

$1 billion in the scheme of it is small for the banks but its a sure sign that after the Royal commission into financial institutions there is going to be a massive shake up.
  • #104,360
  • Sep 10, 2018 7:43pm Sep 10, 2018 7:43pm
Quoting fx111
{image} {image} Can someone explain from technical point of view why AUD/USD broke obvious wedge to downside? Price action came to strong weekly support, created obvious wedge (which should break to upside), bullish divergence on RSI, but still price denied all this technical signs.... What is your view?
Just stay short & ride out the waves.
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