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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #1,241
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:51pm Sep 6, 2018 4:51pm
The market almost always moves in the direction of its technical trend, fundamental news can impact, but only for a few hours or that day, UNLESS its something like a rate hike or rate lowering that could have an effect of changing trade direction and effect the pair for a while.

JMO

We all do what feels right and works for us.
  • #1,242
  • Sep 6, 2018 4:55pm Sep 6, 2018 4:55pm
Quoting patterncode
The market almost always moves in the direction of its technical trend, fundamental can impact, but only for a fewhours or that day, UNLESS its something like a rate hike or rate lowering that could have an effect of changing trade direction and effect the pair for a while. JMO We all do what feels right and works for us.
Fair enough.......
  • #1,243
  • Sep 7, 2018 12:16am Sep 7, 2018 12:16am
yesterday tried traing after ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news release, and before it.
Did not understand why it did not make going GBPUSD or EURUSD down.

On fxstreet calendar I see more bad news for usd, but according to forex factory calendar those are not important, they are not even in FF calendar. But in fxstreet their volume is shown same as that ISM. So maybe they affected and weakened dollar. Or what?

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Probably biggest news today are

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So today until payrolls USD should strenghen I guess, because of good payroll and unemployment rate forecast.
  • #1,244
  • Sep 7, 2018 12:49am Sep 7, 2018 12:49am
Quoting patterncode
The market almost always moves in the direction of its technical trend, fundamental news can impact, but only for a few hours or that day, UNLESS its something like a rate hike or rate lowering that could have an effect of changing trade direction and effect the pair for a while. JMO We all do what feels right and works for us.
this man, this is what i was talking about.
but its ok to understand both technical and fundamental.
the Key is timing. timing when to trade.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #1,245
  • Sep 7, 2018 12:51am Sep 7, 2018 12:51am
Quoting Samson85
I've taken a short hoping that will see a spike down when it hits midnight USA time as tarrifs would have kicked in for China which well weigh on the aud. Stop loss is at the daily pivot {image}
Woke up to see my take profit had been hit. Very simple fundamental trade
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  • #1,246
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:04am Sep 7, 2018 1:04am
Quoting Samson85
I traded the Risabank interest rate release and the eursek went up and down like a yoyo. I could have taken profit at the top but I have decided to swing trade it as it has been a very bullish pair. ING bank see it going to 11.000 but if i can get 200 pips I will be a happy man. {image} {image}
The trade is still moving to the upside and I expect it to fly up as we have already touched the daily pivot today
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  • #1,247
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:19am Sep 7, 2018 1:19am
can somebody explain what is going on with GBPUSD: bad news released for eur

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since gbp corelates with eur, I opened the short GU and it rised. Just first minutes went down. I do not get. Plus dollar forecasts are good. Market manipulation?

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  • #1,248
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:22am Sep 7, 2018 1:22am
Took a long also on usdcad which I am in a loss for 12 pips. Stupidest trade ever as I thought the nafta news was just an opportunity for a dip buy. May close it.
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  • #1,249
  • Sep 7, 2018 1:42am Sep 7, 2018 1:42am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
can somebody explain what is going on with GBPUSD: bad news released for eur {image} since gbp corelates with eur, I opened the short GU and it rised. Just first minutes went down. I do not get. Plus dollar forecasts are good. Market manipulation? {image}
Maybe that price is not knowing yet where to go, because on fxstreet calendar there are more various forecasts some good, some bad for eur. damn it, loses after loses.
  • #1,250
  • Sep 7, 2018 2:55am Sep 7, 2018 2:55am
Quoting Samson85
Took a long also on usdcad which I am in a loss for 12 pips. Stupidest trade ever as I thought the nafta news was just an opportunity for a dip buy. May close it. {image}
Closed it for a 12 pip loss. Such a silly trade and ignored the rules
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  • #1,251
  • Sep 7, 2018 3:17am Sep 7, 2018 3:17am
I still hold my short position on USD/CAD
  • #1,252
  • Sep 7, 2018 3:36am Sep 7, 2018 3:36am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
can somebody explain what is going on with GBPUSD: bad news released for eur {image} since gbp corelates with eur, I opened the short GU and it rised. Just first minutes went down. I do not get. Plus dollar forecasts are good. Market manipulation? {image}
Your using the calendar the wrong way.

Only focus on high impact releases (The red ones)

EUR, JPY, CHF Data releases do not move the market. JPY & EUR are in QE. USD data does not do much because the USD are hiking rates anyways. CAD & GDP present the best moves. AUD & NZD are okay as well.
  • #1,253
  • Sep 7, 2018 4:35am Sep 7, 2018 4:35am
I think today Canadian employment will be greater than forecast and Non-Farm less, but I'm still new trader and new in fundamentals so I can't be sure if I'm right.
  • #1,254
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:17am Sep 7, 2018 5:17am
Quoting RoninFX
I think today Canadian employment will be greater than forecast and Non-Farm less, but I'm still new trader and new in fundamentals so I can't be sure if I'm right.

I agree with you there as CAD data is important to whether they raise rates
  • #1,255
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:41am Sep 7, 2018 5:41am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Your using the calendar the wrong way. Only focus on high impact releases (The red ones) EUR, JPY, CHF Data releases do not move the market. JPY & EUR are in QE. USD data does not do much because the USD are hiking rates anyways. CAD & GDP present the best moves. AUD & NZD are okay as well.
but there is today dollar NFP and similar red news. Even CAD red news which I noticed corelates with eur. And CAD red forecasts are worse then previous. So CAD should go down. USD will raise rates, but this is probably counted in and also recently said taht they are considering to stop raising rates. But still those NFP, unemployment rate forecasst for USD are good.

But it looks like they do move the market, even those small releases. Only they moves smaller.I am thinking to trade short time position while that new moves the market. I of course do not expect those small news to override the red news, but I try to combine them with red news as additional confirmation- if the direction of red news and small news is same, then make a trade to that direction.

Here is how it moved on bad German Industrial Production m/m and German Trade Balance. Firs bit down as news said, but after few minutes up which probably other news forecast affected.
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I do not get also why USDCAD is falling today. Something really overrides those forecasts in the calendar - those speeches maybe.
  • #1,256
  • Sep 7, 2018 5:45am Sep 7, 2018 5:45am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} but there is today dollar NFP and similar red news. Even CAD red news which I noticed corelates with eur. And CAD red forecasts are worse then previous. So CAD should go down. USD will raise rates, but this is probably counted in and also recently said taht they are considering to stop raising rates. But still those NFP, unemployment rate forecasst for USD are good. But it looks like they do move the market, even those small releases. Only they moves smaller.I am thinking to trade short time position while that new moves the market. I of...
You are over complicating things. You are using the calendar but you are not knowing where the central bank is up to. You cannot trade economic data if you do not know whats going on with the central bank or whether the bank is data dependant.

If you want to trade the data today - Trade the CAD, but do it on NZD/CAD or even EUR/CAD.
  • #1,257
  • Sep 7, 2018 6:03am Sep 7, 2018 6:03am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} but there is today dollar NFP and similar red news. Even CAD red news which I noticed corelates with eur. And CAD red forecasts are worse then previous. So CAD should go down.
The forecast is just what people expect, it's not a fact. I wouldn't trade just on expectations, You have to do your own research and you can take a look on data in previous years for the month.
  • #1,258
  • Sep 7, 2018 7:06am Sep 7, 2018 7:06am
Quoting RoninFX
{quote} The forecast is just what people expect, it's not a fact. I wouldn't trade just on expectations, You have to do your own research and you can take a look on data in previous years for the month.
Hmm, interesting point - previos years of the month. How can this be important? If NFP is monthly then tendency should be same every month I assumed.

But at least my coach said the forecast is very important - the price goes to the direction of most important news forecast. Unless there is some political events which are unforecastable and he said he hates those
  • #1,259
  • Sep 7, 2018 7:07am Sep 7, 2018 7:07am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The trade is still moving to the upside and I expect it to fly up as we have already touched the daily pivot today {image}
Got stopped out quite badly and the sad thing is that I know why but ignored the weekend sentiment to come. I had a note in my phone from last week to discuss the sek election wit RANsquawk today as it takes place today. I knew there was a risk event on the weekend but I still wanted to swing this position. I did not expect the market to buy sek and price in a positive election outcome. Lesson is don't hold trades when you know there is a risk event close by. Overall it's been a positive week.
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  • #1,260
  • Edited 7:36am Sep 7, 2018 7:22am | Edited 7:36am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I agree with you there as CAD data is important to whether they raise rates
BOC Wilkins said the bank may raise rates even if NAFTA fails apart.. but only expecting +5k jobs... seems like a low number to beat.

but.. came in at -51k jobs vs +5k.... interesting.... prices ignoring it as likely NAFTA news is overriding jobs data.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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