Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) | Page 29 | Forex Factory

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Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

  • #561
  • Sep 3, 2018 11:47pm Sep 3, 2018 11:47pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDZAR i m waiting on long too from yesterday at 14.927..expecting to test 15.00 today.. all timeframes (weekly, daily, 4h, 1h) looks bullish to me for now in UsdZar..i dont see yet any weakness..
Closed at 14.98

Going to sleep
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #562
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:33am Sep 4, 2018 12:33am
Quoting 2dollardog
I took it. I really need a break. {image}
-250 trying to follow a retrace.

bought 15.015
  • #563
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:41am Sep 4, 2018 12:41am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} -250 trying to follow a retrace. bought 15.015
15.50 truly on the cards
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #564
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:30am Sep 4, 2018 1:30am
Quoting dweb
{quote} 15.50 truly on the cards
I think you're right. I must quit. I'm exhausted. Been a nice run!
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  • #565
  • Edited 3:00am Sep 4, 2018 2:40am | Edited 3:00am
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  • #566
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:42am Sep 4, 2018 2:42am
I'm back in. Target 15.5?
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  • #567
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:46am Sep 4, 2018 2:46am
Quoting 2dollardog
I'm back in. Target 15.5? {image}
cut +250 Flipped
  • #568
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:59am Sep 4, 2018 2:59am
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} cut +250 Flipped
-450 stopped
  • #569
  • Sep 4, 2018 7:54am Sep 4, 2018 7:54am
Wow ZAR just collapsed to 2 year highs.

Technically speaking it should retrace, but fundamentally I see ZAR going further north.

A very volatile time to be trading UZ.
Truth is like poetry. And most people f*cking hate poetry.
  • #570
  • Sep 4, 2018 8:02am Sep 4, 2018 8:02am
Bumpy ride ahead...
Attached Image
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #571
  • Sep 4, 2018 8:07am Sep 4, 2018 8:07am
Quoting dweb
Bumpy ride ahead... {image}
Targets: 15.2282 reached, 15.1980, 15.1756 (toughest to break), but if it does then during night then 15.03xx
We err, and err, and err again, but less.
  • #572
  • Sep 4, 2018 8:31am Sep 4, 2018 8:31am
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Welcome to thread I m not trading usdrub..but i just looked at charts.. Daily looks range but above 50, 100, 200 MAs..weekly looks bullish above MAs again..and monthly looks also bullish to me..if more and serious sanctions come, then we may go to 80s (now 63.31).. But have no plan to trade this pair..daily, 4h, hourly predictability is more important for me..i m day trader.. {image} {image} {image}

Hi,

I know very little about Exotics. Which timeframes do you use for day-trading?
  • #573
  • Sep 4, 2018 11:29am Sep 4, 2018 11:29am
Quoting dweb
Bumpy ride ahead... {image}
It can go to 16.50 as more economic coming tomorrow , Thursday and Friday , Big worry for us ,
  • #574
  • Sep 4, 2018 11:42am Sep 4, 2018 11:42am
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Hi, I know very little about Exotics. Which timeframes do you use for day-trading?
Hi,

I check often monthly, weekly, daily charts to understand main trends..if i can see very obvious trend, then focus daily, 4h and 1h charts to enter day trading position..now, i see a clear uptrend (monthly, weekly) in UsdTry and UsdZar..so, i focus to long trades in those pairs..and if daily, 4h and 1h dont show any weakness in candles, i try to long..usually strong up movements happen during Frankfurt open (that is Turkish and probably S.Africa (not sure that) market open) and London open hours..these hours are good for scalp with increasing volatility..when approaching NY close, retracements may happen due to lesser volume and swaps..

I recently have started to trade exotics and continue to follow together with majors..because there are country specific opportunities..but not so easy to earn, since fundamentals (economics policies and political problems) play a great role in exotics..so, difficulty is, you must follow and understand political and economical problems and background of a related country..

i m just learning exotics world recently such as Rand, Peso etc..but maybe i can say that i have some familiarity with Turkish economy..but there are very experienced good traders in the thread fortunately..

I m outside now..i will put some chart later on..

Best wishes and welcome to thread
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #575
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:22pm Sep 4, 2018 12:22pm
fundamentals applies to all currencies, not just exotics
  • #576
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:41pm Sep 4, 2018 12:41pm
Quoting EcoTrader
fundamentals applies to all currencies, not just exotics
Of coursebut following and understanding fundamentals (political and economical policies/problems) is more vital in exotics..

You can trade some majors mostly with technicals as many traders do..just focusing CB policies and general risk sentiment might be enough for them..but in exotics, unexpected political issues may suddenly cause huge spikes which is difficult to guess by looking charts..last three months of UsdTry is good example of what i mean..also, i think, lesser volumes of exotics compared to majors increase their vulnerability to political news..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #577
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:44pm Sep 4, 2018 12:44pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Of coursebut following and understanding fundamentals (political and economical policies/problems) is more vital in exotics.. You can trade some majors mostly with technicals as many traders do..just focusing CB policies and general risk sentiment might be enough for them..but in exotics, unexpected political issues may suddenly cause huge spikes which is difficult to guess by looking charts..last three months of UsdTry is good example of what i mean..
Can you write a little about exotic slippage?
  • #578
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:01pm Sep 4, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} Of coursebut following and understanding fundamentals (political and economical policies/problems) is more vital in exotics.. You can trade some majors mostly with technicals as many traders do..just focusing CB policies and general risk sentiment might be enough for them..but in exotics, unexpected political issues may suddenly cause huge spikes which is difficult to guess by looking charts..last three months of UsdTry is good example of what i mean..also, i think, lesser volumes of exotics compared to majors increase their vulnerability...
i trade exotics often but off of their economic releases like South Africa GDP release today. You don't see them in most economic calendars , i get it from Eikon but you can also get it from tradingeconomics. Generally i find the same quality of opportunity i find in majors with exotics (the exception of rate differentials being larger and rollovers bite harder if you hold overnight). Events that shock emerging markets are quite rare but when they come around can be highly profitable. i stayed away from try because the spreads are ridiculous.
  • #579
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:01pm Sep 4, 2018 1:01pm
Quoting mbrown
{quote} Can you write a little about exotic slippage?
I trade with pepperstone..i dont have a big issue yet..during data time(like CB interest rate decision), it may happen..dont have bad experience yet but dont trade much data/news events..widened spreads may be problem during data/news events..spreads are widened during Asia session usually in Try, Zar pairs(100 to 1000 pips may occur)..in EU and USA session spreads are ok (20/250 pips nowadays in Try pairs)

Using lesser than usual leverage in exotics better..

Hopefully, experienced thread members may want to share their experience in slippage
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #580
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:05pm Sep 4, 2018 1:05pm
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conne...018/ano2018-37

economists waiting drop usd/try and euro/try in 13.09.2018 due to centarl bank interest rate decision ( expectation interest rate will be increase between %5-7)

regards
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