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  • #1,201
  • Sep 3, 2018 12:21am Sep 3, 2018 12:21am
Quoting Samson85
Took a long GBPAUD as I believe the aud is still in trouble. {image}
Closed gbpaud for a small loss as we had a mixture of data last night which failed to push the currency up
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  • #1,202
  • Sep 3, 2018 12:30am Sep 3, 2018 12:30am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The deputy govenar just resigned at the central bank. Coukd hit profit today {image}
Just closed another 50% of this position and the stop is still at breakeven
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  • #1,203
  • Sep 3, 2018 4:56am Sep 3, 2018 4:56am
Citi trade recommendation - buy Aud/Jpy at 79.75, target 82.00 and 78.75 stop


Barclays trade recommendation - long Usd/Cad (market ref circa 1.3050), targeting 1.3200 and stop at 1.2970
  • #1,204
  • Sep 3, 2018 6:53am Sep 3, 2018 6:53am
I have just gone long on USDCAD and will close the trade on Wednesday before the boc interest rate statement.

The reason for the trade is i don't think CAD will get a nafta deal as they are no push over.

I think oil also needs to fall because traders know if it goes past 70.00 by a mile then trump will start barking
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  • #1,205
  • Sep 3, 2018 1:38pm Sep 3, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting Samson85
I have just gone long on USDCAD and will close the trade on Wednesday before the boc interest rate statement. The reason for the trade is i don't think CAD will get a nafta deal as they are no push over. I think oil also needs to fall because traders know if it goes past 70.00 by a mile then trump will start barking {image}
so far going good, but now resistance
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and tomorrow will be hard day for usd rise as I undersrtand

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But I have no idea about that nafta deal, so maybe that will be strongest driver.

Plus friday good for CAD employment also does not help for CAD to fall I guess
  • #1,206
  • Sep 3, 2018 1:42pm Sep 3, 2018 1:42pm
EU. if price above 1.16395 then BUY
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #1,207
  • Sep 3, 2018 1:56pm Sep 3, 2018 1:56pm
I see there are good fundamentals for USD as safe haven demand:

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2018/08/31/US-Dollar-Aims-Higher-on-Haven-Demand-Yield-Appeal.html
  • #1,208
  • Sep 3, 2018 2:18pm Sep 3, 2018 2:18pm
Quoting Samson85
I have just gone long on USDCAD and will close the trade on Wednesday before the boc interest rate statement. The reason for the trade is i don't think CAD will get a nafta deal as they are no push over. I think oil also needs to fall because traders know if it goes past 70.00 by a mile then trump will start barking {image}

Trade update:

Up over 30 points
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  • #1,209
  • Sep 3, 2018 2:51pm Sep 3, 2018 2:51pm
Joining USD buyers:

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because of https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2018/09/03/UK-Week-Ahead-Renewed-Brexit-Fears-Weigh-on-Sterling-Webinar.html?ref-author=McQueen brexit fears and dollar safe haven demand https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2018/08/31/US-Dollar-Aims-Higher-on-Haven-Demand-Yield-Appeal.html

Tomorrow there are bad forecasts for USD but also bad for GBP.

Plan to close before EUR Spanish Unemployment Change because this also might affect GBP a bit - as eur correlates with GBP.

SL after todays high. Good myfxbook sentiment - long 75 %
  • #1,210
  • Sep 3, 2018 2:54pm Sep 3, 2018 2:54pm
Slso not bad that GBPUSD broke support

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  • #1,211
  • Sep 3, 2018 3:51pm Sep 3, 2018 3:51pm
MS issued the short CAD / JPY recommendation during the UK morning, so bear that in mind
to sell CADJPY at market with

  1. a target of 78.00
  2. and stop of 85.15

Morgan Stanley cite:
CAD looks poised to weaken further

  1. positive trade news has largely become priced in, suggesting limited upside and more significant downside, especially given the break-up of Canadian-US trade negotiations which is a risk-negative factor.
  2. Governor Poloz at Jackson Hole suggested that he was looking through the uptick in headline CPI, and 2Q GDP showed that economic data are continuing to soften, limiting the hawkish risks from the BoC.
  3. Markets have begun to price in the risks associated with highly indebted economies exposed to rising global funding costs like Australia and New Zealand, but so far CAD has remained relatively immune, suggesting further room to fall.

while JPY appreciation should continue

  1. JPY looks poised to strengthen as continued risks in EM should begin to spill over into broader markets,
  2. Fed policy normalisation continues and market volatility increases.

Risks to the trade

  1. include a more hawkish surprise from the BoC supporting CAD and continued low volatility and outperformance of US assets, keeping JPY from appreciating

MS also issued a second recommendation, We like to buy USDMXN at market with a target of 20.30 and stop of 18.40

  • #1,212
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:09am Sep 4, 2018 12:09am
closed GBPUSD with small profit:

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It is interesting to notice that as I understand low impact news started to drag price up about 1 hour before release.

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y forecast was better than previous. But after released - uppre arrow in the chart - price continued to move down. In 5m chart looks nice and if after release who was not sleeping could make some tight SL and make good profit.

Now it started rising on 5m chart, and I took profits while I can. Not sure why it is rising.

The Spanish Unemployment Change is in 2 hours, I guess since it stopped going down, this will might help in those 2 hours.
  • #1,213
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:51am Sep 4, 2018 1:51am
Took a EUR short this morning as fundamentally it's to the down side vs the dollar. Currently have a 40 pip stop in place. Targeting 1.14/13. The DXY tells the story as well.
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  • #1,214
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:45am Sep 4, 2018 2:45am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Trade update: Up over 30 points {image}
Now 78 pips up on the trade
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  • #1,215
  • Sep 4, 2018 3:03am Sep 4, 2018 3:03am
Looks like Spanish Unemployment Change raiseed GBPUSD price before release, and after bad release for eur GBPUSD continued to drop. Would be nice to know before that that it is not so strong and so keep shorting GU would be nice profit. But since there are bad USD ISM Manufacturing PMI - this was make me worrying that GU might rise.

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Hmm, actually no, that spanish eur forecast was bad - the hgihe number, the worse for euro . So thats intersting why GBP rised. maybe people where closing shorts before news release then
  • #1,216
  • Sep 4, 2018 6:58am Sep 4, 2018 6:58am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Now 78 pips up on the trade {image}

100 pips hit

May close half or all of the position

Stop loss at breakeven now
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  • #1,217
  • Sep 4, 2018 7:42am Sep 4, 2018 7:42am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} 100 pips hit May close half or all of the position Stop loss at breakeven now {image}
Closed for 106 pips. All this oil news presents risk to the trade and wti is up more than 100 points
  • #1,218
  • Sep 4, 2018 7:43am Sep 4, 2018 7:43am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} 100 pips hit May close half or all of the position Stop loss at breakeven now {image}
Trump has been on a rampage threatening Canada all weekend...into this week. Highly doubt it will stop and likely can be a no deal looking at the tendencies of Trump. A no deal for Canada will absolutely crush the CAD, but so far.... Just political posturing as I still expect some kind of deal to be done.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,219
  • Sep 4, 2018 8:52am Sep 4, 2018 8:52am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Closed for 106 pips. All this oil news presents risk to the trade and wti is up more than 100 points

It hit target as wti shaved half it's gains today giving less strength to cad but hey 100+ pips is good for me
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  • #1,220
  • Sep 4, 2018 9:10am Sep 4, 2018 9:10am
Quoting Samson85
Took a EUR short this morning as fundamentally it's to the down side vs the dollar. Currently have a 40 pip stop in place. Targeting 1.14/13. The DXY tells the story as well. {image} {image}
Up 60 pips on the day for Eur/usd. The swing maybe ambitious for the TP but let's see.
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