Pinpars Rock

shorted GC at 1.6940

USDCHF (daily) looking like a good set up if the volume pushes higher

Be very very careful with signals generated on the Friday before a long weekend. Not saying it won't work but I may hang back until next Wednesday.

Monday is labor day in the US. So a big chunk of the market will be missing

yep went long this morning instead of friday night

Forgot it was US holiday, so not any major movement

It often happens that many traders and mid to large organizations will square positions and/or eliminate or reduce their risk exposure before a long break in the markets. Mostly this is to avoid issues with any "black swan" that may come up while their broker is on "vacation".

This will create a "signal" which often takes the form of a pin bar which would not normally have occurred except for the conservative "position squaring" to keep your risk exposure down. This can also be seen just prior to Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

Hello traders,

took a good UJ long earlier. Thanks for the volume tips Donpato. You know where i can learn more of this exhausting volume thing? Is it from VSA? they are all commercialized by now sadly.

Yeah I concur on that volumne tip! Seems to filter a lot of bad signals. Still long USD CHF - targeting 9800

Hello All...I am monitoring this trade on XTI-USD (West Texas Crude) that at this point looks like it has the context and formation I am looking for.

I have already entered a short position and have set pending orders for two more positions anticipating any retest of this absorption area. I have also noted that this shooting star is forming (and retesting) the resistance area of a previous range that broke down near the end of July.

To add icing to the cake, fundamental oil production is rising thanks to US fracking and this has provoked OPEC to try and cut production. However given the individual economies including Russia's, they will be forced to produce more oil to support their economies an this may eventually send oil prices lower.

For now, we'll wait and see if this signal holds.

It is NOT from VSA but has much in common with it. What I have come to term, "the three phases of exhaustion" are a product of my own observations and many years of frustration and pulling my hair out...

I started another thread about this subject awhile back but after some initial enthusiasm I found I was mostly talking to myself...so I have not posted there in a while. But I still monitor for questions. I often find that the final phase (absorption) is what so many concentrate on and is the basis of almost every "price action signal" you will find out there, including Pin bars. But as I'm sure you are aware (as are most who read these threads), they don't always work on the right hand edge as they seem to do in static charts (back testing). This is because no one seems to want to focus on CONTEXT for their signals.

Even more confounding and confusing is that these phases (Climax, Exhaustion, Absorption) don't always occur in that order and are very often spread across multiple time frames when they are expressed in the market. As far as I know, I am the only person here speaking about this concept and there is very little about it available on the internet.

These concepts are based on "true" market structure and order flow and even fewer here on FF are disposed to discuss them. So I take bits and pieces of these concepts and comment about them on these forums hoping to generate more interest.

There is one thing I am certain of. That is that if you don't find a consistent context for any entry (or exit) signal most of your trading success will be "luck" because you will not be able to consistently reproduce your winners. However, given the "structure" of context you can improve consistency to a reasonably accurate 60% or more...which will go a long way to improving your success.

Just a quick update on the completed signal on WTI I listed earlier. Today's trading ended up being a considerable sell off.

I have readjusted the add in positions to just one. The current position is approximately the equivalent to 80 pips positive.

Watching potential 4h PB's on GBP/USD and GBP/CHF...

Jackpot!!!!

Quick update on XTI short:

Good follow though seen today on yesterday's sell off. I expect that tomorrows price action may range and be a little weak with low volume. I have left my add in short on the board but if price moves further down I will cancel the order and just manage what's on the board now.

is a sell

i am short eurnzd with the daily chart. Let's see how it goes.

I was watching that one as well because there is room for a correction to 1.7500. 1.7590 is also near-term support. But I passed it and prefer waiting for trend following pin bars. Best of luck mate!

Daily GBP/USD will be one to watch next week...

I'm not sold on Friday's pin bar on this market. Not to say it can't work out but the formation lacks any clear context. All that has really happened is that price rose tto test a resistance point and that point held. Price then returned to the middle of the current range. The epidemy of indecision.

Looks like your doing pinbars after a huge spike when its all run up and overbought.

For newb's.. Don't focus just on the pinbar... Focus on the market structure.
Also take note of the time of day.. Is it at the end of a session... mid session.. at the beginning of a session..

One candle pattern us useless without context..
If you take every pinbar you see, you will lose!
Pinbars are just a tool when all the other conditions are right.