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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #32,801
  • Aug 31, 2018 3:29pm Aug 31, 2018 3:29pm
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Hello Lem, can you explain me the dynamic behind this movement? I mean, what happened..? Market movers like hedge funds, retail, istitutionals etc, was all in front of PC like you waiting for selling? Or there was already a lot of pending orders?
There are different things at play every morning and a lot of the time there will be movement to close the K-Gap. That aside, the move that follows the Open, will immediately reverse the previous candle, whether that moves into the gap or expands it. That's what I exploit on my original Monster Trade set-up. It's also why I don't hold it for any length of time, as often that first move is a sucker move.

All that aside - what drove that specific move on that specific day? Why it kept on powering through the floor? That I don't honestly know. I hadn't seen any fundamentals that had hinted at such a powerful move, I just hadn't had the time the previous night to do a full work up - and that is most certainly my bad, as you should always know what is going to be driving your market.

Or that's what I would always have thought - and don't tell my brother otherwise, lol.

Reason that has changed somewhat and I don't perhaps go the whole hog every time any more, is that the whole point of our methods here, is that you actually don't need to know, as we all, guess what...Trade A Line.

Hedge Funds, Institutions and all the big gorillas out there, are only interested in one thing from a trade...value.

We don't need to know why price is crossing a line, just that it is.

Having said all of that, you've got me wondering. I will go ask a man who will know such hallowed information and report back over the next day or so.
  • #32,802
  • Aug 31, 2018 3:40pm Aug 31, 2018 3:40pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} There are different things at play every morning and a lot of the time there will be movement to close the K-Gap. That aside, the move that follows the Open, will immediately reverse the previous candle, whether that moves into the gap or expands it. That's what I exploit on my original Monster Trade set-up. It's also why I don't hold it for any length of time, as often that first move is a sucker move. All that aside - what drove that specific move on that specific day? Why it kept on powering through the floor? That I don't honestly know....

Indeed! But it is always interesting to understand what and why is happening. Okay, i'll wait impatient for the man's answer. I'm too curious!
  • #32,803
  • Aug 31, 2018 5:43pm Aug 31, 2018 5:43pm
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Indeed! But it is always interesting to understand what and why is happening. Okay, i'll wait impatient for the man's answer. I'm too curious!
Right. Apparently the call last night was that should the DAX come in as massively overpriced as it was looking to be at the open, then the value play was a short all the way.

Value indeed.
  • #32,804
  • Sep 2, 2018 9:32am Sep 2, 2018 9:32am
Hi folks. Hope everyone is having a good weekend.

Just wanted to pop on and let those who are waiting on a pm know that it will be there tomorrow

Just been really busy the last two days and will be a very late night (Miami U face LSU tonight ).

As it is Labor Day on Monday, I won't have been looking to do much of anything anyway, so I will pop in first thing as usual but that's probably the level of it all.

That leaves me the rest of the day to catch up.

Anyway, have a grand rest-of-the-weekend and back tomorrow.
  • #32,805
  • Edited 2:09am Sep 3, 2018 1:15am | Edited 2:09am
Morning Guys, The Lem Dax Monster this Franky Open was super fast, I was looking to short around 12339 Daily Open 22nd Aug and Friday close area, hoping for gap up to there, the Monster was lightening speed got close to that area and away, sheeeeeesh fingers not that fast L.O.L. even after a gallon of Caffeine so no trade at this time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX30M1 3sep Looking to short 12339area price nearly but lightening speed could not enter short..png Size: 38 KB
  • #32,806
  • Sep 3, 2018 1:48am Sep 3, 2018 1:48am
Quoting Pipradar
Morning Guys, The Lem Dax Monster this Franky Open was super fast, I was looking to short around 12339 Friday Open, hoping for gap up to there, the Monster was lightening speed got close to that area and away, sheeeeeesh fingers not that fast L.O.L. even after a gallon of Caffeine so no trade at this time. {image}
Unlucky, Pips. Lightning is always hard to catch!

I'll have to take your word for it however, as the machines remain well and truly off. Two hours sleep do not an alert trader make!

Have a good one all. Catch ya' later.
  • #32,807
  • Sep 3, 2018 2:14am Sep 3, 2018 2:14am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Unlucky, Pips. Lightning is always hard to catch! I'll have to take your word for it however, as the machines remain well and truly off. Two hours sleep do not an alert trader make! Have a good one all. Catch ya' later.
eNJOY THE ZZZZZZZZZ Lem. think I need some more my post should have read,,,,,,,,,
I was looking to short around 12339 Daily Open 22nd Aug and Friday close area, SOZ L.O. SHOULDA GONE TO SPEC SAVERS.
  • #32,808
  • Sep 3, 2018 3:36am Sep 3, 2018 3:36am
Morning all. Looking at last week's dead zone set ups on UC, it worked on 3 days with no counter trade needed. On 1 day, 1 counter was needed. However, on Wednesday, the high and low of the 12pm bar were broken multiple times before it finally decided to take a specific direction. How do you guys - who trade this setup - deal with the whip? Thanks.
  • #32,809
  • Sep 3, 2018 7:14am Sep 3, 2018 7:14am
Great day on cable and stll running.

Need music - hope don't wake you up Lem.

Inserted Video
  • #32,810
  • Sep 3, 2018 3:12pm Sep 3, 2018 3:12pm
Quoting ia1979
Morning all. Looking at last week's dead zone set ups on UC, it worked on 3 days with no counter trade needed. On 1 day, 1 counter was needed. However, on Wednesday, the high and low of the 12pm bar were broken multiple times before it finally decided to take a specific direction. How do you guys - who trade this setup - deal with the whip? Thanks.
You need to break the set up into different sections.

Once the initial counter is on and the floating loss contained, then you can put it aside and forget about it.

Now you have a few options. You can wait till tomorrow and take the new set-up and cover that loss.

Or, you can take the next entry that comes as if the original one (s) hadn't happened.

I began to use my momo-scalp techniques in these situations while waiting for the next major trigger.

The key to these "whips" is that once you get into profit at all, never let it go negative. Bank those pips. Re-enter if it turns back again.

Usually the only way you get whipped to death is if you don't have a large enough candle to give you a WZ entry far enough back into the body.

(Before you ask, no I don't have a magic figure as to what is "big enough" or "too small" - a candle that is, stop making up your own jokes!)
  • #32,811
  • Sep 3, 2018 4:43pm Sep 3, 2018 4:43pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You need to break the set up into different sections. Once the initial counter is on and the floating loss contained, then you can put it aside and forget about it. Now you have a few options. You can wait till tomorrow and take the new set-up and cover that loss. Or, you can take the next entry that comes as if the original one (s) hadn't happened. I began to use my momo-scalp techniques in these situations while waiting for the next major trigger. The key to these "whips" is that once you get into profit at all, never let it go negative....
Thanks Lem for the insightful response. So I guess the key is don't try and double up every time the opposite trade is triggered. Counter and put aside. Then look for new trades. Understood. Thanks for being patient with me.
  • #32,812
  • Sep 3, 2018 5:44pm Sep 3, 2018 5:44pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Thanks Lem for the insightful response. So I guess the key is don't try and double up every time the opposite trade is triggered. Counter and put aside. Then look for new trades. Understood. Thanks for being patient with me.
No worries. Glad to help.
  • #32,813
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:42am Sep 4, 2018 1:42am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} You need to break the set up into different sections. Once the initial counter is on and the floating loss contained, then you can put it aside and forget about it. Now you have a few options. You can wait till tomorrow and take the new set-up and cover that loss. Or, you can take the next entry that comes as if the original one (s) hadn't happened. I began to use my momo-scalp techniques in these situations while waiting for the next major trigger. The key to these "whips" is that once you get into profit at all, never let it go negative....
Morning guys will be busy trading today, I am in a hole - 7points. Will explain why later. Catch you later.
Morning Lem
  • #32,814
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:47am Sep 4, 2018 1:47am
'Morning, all. How'd it get to the 4th of September already? It was the 1st of June just last week, wasn't it???

Anyway.

Big open move for The Monster this morning...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30.H4rantheFork4thSept18.png Size: 38 KB


Price has been running the C-Fork and has now not only broke off that but now travelled back over the 50-Fib level as well.
  • #32,815
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:55am Sep 4, 2018 1:55am
On the Daily tf, we still have price sitting in a deep area of Demand, so any lower tf Long move will have to be viewed as a ''weak'' one. All relative when we're working down on the m5 charts.

Here, of more use to us, is the fact that on the H1, we are approaching a mid-level Supply Zone at 12395, so if it slows its climb before the Open, then reaches that, we could be looking at a reaction Short from that.

As I write that, it seems that price has in fact now reached that level and we've had an initial rebound...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30.H1gotthedropreactionalread4thSept18.png Size: 38 KB
  • #32,816
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:57am Sep 4, 2018 1:57am
M15 gives us lots of useful info...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30m15haslotsofinfoforus4thSept18.png Size: 31 KB


As such, I am off to see if I can get in on some of this. Back soon.
  • #32,817
  • Sep 4, 2018 1:59am Sep 4, 2018 1:59am
Right, back for a mo'...

I am not sure of the power behind this move higher, so I am going to hang fire on trying any drop, instead witing on any drop that may come and taking the bounce from that.
  • #32,818
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:29am Sep 4, 2018 2:29am
Right.

The main move has obviously been-and-gone over Pips' time-slot.

What's going on here is sucker-move territory.

You can see clearly that this is the case here...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30.H1suckerterritorythismorning4thSept18.png Size: 41 KB


This is now Z-Line killing ground, though this actual position as a turn in a downtrend means it's not as straightforward as it looks at first glance.

I may take a step away for now, to let things settle and come back for Momo-Scalps later once all this skulduggery is over with.
  • #32,819
  • Sep 4, 2018 2:34am Sep 4, 2018 2:34am
Ok, that's the killer for me. Price has closed below my marked pivot at 12365 on my 10-min entry chart. That kills my Momo-Scalp set-up for now.

Definitely time for a break away and come back fresh.

Feels like a morning when I have been a step behind the action all the way.
  • #32,820
  • Edited 3:40am Sep 4, 2018 3:27am | Edited 3:40am
Quoting Pipradar
{quote} Morning guys will be busy trading today, I am in a hole - 7points. Will explain why later. Catch you later. Morning Lem
Hi guys, Lem has put together a brilliant summary of the Monster action this morning, big thank you Lem..
I will not boil the cabbage twice L.O.L.
This morning Franky Open, The monster made a gap up and bounce from the 50 fib, I took a short with expectation of a return to close the gap.The reversal against me was swift and I closed out -7 points. Price closed above the 50 fib I entered long 2 trades and made my 7 points back YAAAAAAAAY, that should of been, now go put the kettle on Pips, but .

The monster invited me in when she bounced at yesterday open, yellow dotted line. this was surely the return to fill the gap, yipppppppeeee, I went short, erm erm price bounced up and down and around, made gestures to me that said ok Pips we are going to close this gap , this went on for a while, and ups!! Price pushed north and put me back in the hole for -6 points, managed to pull 2 back , then got out of dodge. Smarting.
Gap was closed 08-32. with out Moi. mmmmmmm, shoulda had that brew at break even.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DAX30M1 4SEP Gap up Franky Open Bounce at 50fib entered short caught -7 took long +7=0.png Size: 46 KB
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