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Success with Martingale & Hedge - Possible?

  • #161
  • Edited 3:09pm Aug 13, 2018 2:53pm | Edited 3:09pm
Ok, did not spend much time editing the user input to be honest - thought the default ones would fit the basic needs.
Using your recommended settings leads to even worse results. :/ But yeah, let me know when there is something to test.

It is possible to create a grid in a reliable way with attractive risk/reward. But the current version of your GoWithFlow unfortunately is not recommended to use.

I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim. I don not want to promote or sell anything, just give you a sketch of where it should go WHEN using grids - which are ALWAYS threatened by margin calls.
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  • #162
  • Aug 13, 2018 10:29pm Aug 13, 2018 10:29pm
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} I do agree dear friend. My data is from tick story which is not that much reliable but still good. I know this EA will blast on any bad day when spike will hit 700+ pips but the good thing is, my dreams are not based on this. :-) I will need a favor from you to test the v2 on your data and let me know results. Thank
send me let me test for you on Tick data suite data.
  • #163
  • Aug 13, 2018 10:30pm Aug 13, 2018 10:30pm
Quoting Drolph
Ok, did not spend much time editing the user input to be honest - thought the default ones would fit the basic needs. Using your recommended settings leads to even worse results. :/ But yeah, let me know when there is something to test. It is possible to create a grid in a reliable way with attractive risk/reward. But the current version of your GoWithFlow unfortunately is not recommended to use. I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim. I don not want to...
are you able to provide us a copy of your EA> or. is it not available.
  • #164
  • Aug 14, 2018 12:39am Aug 14, 2018 12:39am
Quoting cdsaa
{quote} are you able to provide us a copy of your EA> or. is it not available.
I am not sharing my work, sorry.

I do not want to discredit KashifNawaz work either, but without having a comparison, where a grid should be aiming at, it is hard to know WHEN it is worth the risk using them.
Keep in mind - you are never save trading grids in general. But if they do not survive a tickdata backtest using slippage, your chances are close to non existent as they will definetely(!) fail live pretty soon.

So in the end this "show off" should help people to avoid losing a lot of money using bad grids - as I did in the beginning as well.
  • #165
  • Aug 14, 2018 1:54am Aug 14, 2018 1:54am
Quoting Drolph
Ok, did not spend much time editing the user input to be honest - thought the default ones would fit the basic needs. Using your recommended settings leads to even worse results. :/.
Didn't tried on commercial data yet, only used trial version of tick story so results will be different for sure. Thanks for your test :-)

Quoting Drolph
It is possible to create a grid in a reliable way with attractive risk/reward.
Thanks mate for your continuous motivation, much needed to be there where you already reached

Quoting Drolph
But the current version of your GoWithFlow unfortunately is not recommended to use..
I guess you didn't read my first post where I mentioned all this stuff. I have not recommended to use it on real.

Quoting Drolph
I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim. I don not want to promote or sell anything, just give you a sketch of where it should go WHEN using grids - which are ALWAYS threatened by margin calls.
Exactly that is what we all here aiming for. Congratz to you to reach there... Best wishes bro
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  • #166
  • Aug 14, 2018 1:55am Aug 14, 2018 1:55am
Quoting cdsaa
{quote} send me let me test for you on Tick data suite data.
Hello mate..

As I mentioned earlier, still looking for some programmer to complete missing features. Will let you know :-)
.................
  • #167
  • Aug 14, 2018 7:07am Aug 14, 2018 7:07am
Quoting Drolph
I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim.
As per your BT results, from 3000$ deposit, your EA made net profit of 1,33,377$ in 42 months, so average 3,175$ per month with Max DD of 55%. Excellent and impressive results. Are you getting the same output in live trading?

Did you add any indicators or filters like ATR, ADR, BB etc in your EA or its pure grid system? And also, would you let us know if martingale is involved there are not? Thanks
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  • #168
  • Aug 14, 2018 7:53am Aug 14, 2018 7:53am
Nice to see you back in the game, KN. Hope things are going well for you so far.

Quoting Drolph
{quote} I am not sharing my work, sorry. I do not want to discredit KashifNawaz work either, but without having a comparison, where a grid should be aiming at, it is hard to know WHEN it is worth the risk using them. Keep in mind - you are never save trading grids in general. But if they do not survive a tickdata backtest using slippage, your chances are close to non existent as they will definetely(!) fail live pretty soon. So in the end this "show off" should help people to avoid losing a lot of money using bad grids - as I did in the beginning...
That is some impressive backtesting there, Drolph. I haven't met too many people using grid systems who could control their drawdowns to acceptable levels. If your claim is for real, congratulations!

I have been searching for traders on FF who have stumbled upon something similar to what I have for about a year now, and I think there are perhaps 2 people on this forums that operate with a similar concept. I think that is the real key to succeed in grid trading. Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating it. Grids will always bring the inherent DD risk unless you explicitly manage your positions when a specified DD is hit. Based on my tests, if you want to achieve positive expectancy with a grid system overtime, it's all about managing your positions once they have been opened, and also watching that margin like a hawk.

Part of me wishes to share what I have with regards to that but then again.. Why should I? So I perfectly understand you not wanting to share your work. Hope all is well for you and that you meet your financial freedom goals asap!
  • #169
  • Aug 14, 2018 8:30am Aug 14, 2018 8:30am
Quoting KashifNawaz
{quote} As per your BT results, from 3000$ deposit, your EA made net profit of 1,33,377$ in 42 months, so average 3,175$ per month with Max DD of 55%. Excellent and impressive results. Are you getting the same output in live trading? Did you add any indicators or filters like ATR, ADR, BB etc in your EA or its pure grid system? And also, would you let us know if martingale is involved there are not? Thanks
You have to be careful with these linear extrapolations. Since you can see an exponential curve, there is a money management system implemented. This means you will get the greatest monetary increase at the end of the observed timeframe. Averaging down monthly values afterwards is misleading in this context.

But yeah, I am using it live and the results are even exceedings the tests. Why? My Tickdata test uses variable spreads including slippage of 2.5(!) pips for each entry and exit...EACH! I am not facing these high values under live conditions until now.

Beyond that I am sorry, but I am not revealing any details of the bot in terms of the logic. But you can count it as a grid as it uses grid mechanics.

The true secret of success still is diversification: this is not my only strategy used. In fact most part of the money is used for conservative approaches.

Do not put your eggs into one basket only.

For your GoWithFlow I have no idea if it is a dead end. But always keep both sides of the medal focused! Most of the grids simply are not profitable enough compared to the risk they are housing.

Quoting carddard
Nice to see you back in the game, KN. Hope things are going well for you so far. {quote} That is some impressive backtesting there, Drolph. I haven't met too many people using grid systems who could control their drawdowns to acceptable levels. If your claim is for real, congratulations! I have been searching for traders on FF who have stumbled upon something similar to what I have for about a year now, and I think there are perhaps 2 people on this forums that operate with a similar concept. I think that is the real key to succeed in grid trading....
Thank you for your kind words carddard!

I can agree with most of your evaluations, but as I said above - do not rely on one "attractive" strategy alone, if you want to make money in this business longterm.
  • #170
  • Aug 14, 2018 8:49am Aug 14, 2018 8:49am
Quoting Drolph
{quote} You have to be careful with these linear extrapolations. Since you can see an exponential curve, there is a money management system implemented. This means you will get the greatest monetary increase at the end of the observed timeframe. Averaging down monthly values afterwards is misleading in this context. But yeah, I am using it live and the results are even exceedings the tests. Why? My Tickdata test uses variable spreads including slippage of 2.5(!) pips for each entry and exit...EACH! I am not facing these high values under live conditions...
That's very nice to hear. I'm sure it would motivate many people on this forum!
I agree with you completely regarding diversification. It is something that I have brought with me into forex since my beginnings in the equity/bonds/ETF world.
I'm not sure if I understood your point regarding relying on 1 attractive strategy correctly - but if you're suggesting that one should not rely solely on one good strategy but should instead employ multiple profitable strategies in an effort to diversify your portfolio, then yes that makes sense. Always helps to have more than 1 good strategy in your portfolio!
  • #171
  • Aug 14, 2018 1:37pm Aug 14, 2018 1:37pm
i don't thinking Martingle and hedge is useful, and i don't think you should trade depending EA, but good luck with what you doing
  • #172
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:06am Aug 15, 2018 12:06am
If you can put an EA that uses 3 different trading strategy, for ranging entries, trending entries and hedging entries with a semi-martingale function then I think you'l be on the right direction.
  • #173
  • Aug 25, 2018 4:55pm Aug 25, 2018 4:55pm
Guys, I didn't really test this ea but i have made one similar to this strategy last year. Marti+grid+hedge.

My experience:

a) I believe the reason why this type of ea fail because of high impact news (in EU case), careful on high impact news especially those was not schedule. You may continue to enable the trade after news impact calm. You may also cut loss/profit when the high impact news move started.

b) Take only 1%-5% (from monthly capital) daily and stop the trade for that particular day. Come back next day.

c) In my case, I would not wait until NYO. My trade normally done before LO or during early time of LO (hitting 1%-5%). So that you will have more quality time with real human.

Inserted Video


p/s: I still consider myself not yet a successful trader. I'm not that smart with algo and haven't found one (set, forget and profit) since my involvement with forex.
  • #174
  • Sep 1, 2018 3:20am Sep 1, 2018 3:20am
Quoting Drolph
Ok, did not spend much time editing the user input to be honest - thought the default ones would fit the basic needs. Using your recommended settings leads to even worse results. :/ But yeah, let me know when there is something to test. It is possible to create a grid in a reliable way with attractive risk/reward. But the current version of your GoWithFlow unfortunately is not recommended to use. I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim. I don not want to...
excuse me, can you show me the link or upload those expert / EA , so trader can comparise and make better EA uploaded by this thread
  • #175
  • Sep 1, 2018 10:08am Sep 1, 2018 10:08am
Yes success with Martingale is possible.
Just have a look to my post here: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11398818
and follow the rules. Signals are rather rare but profitable.
My system uses a lot of indicators but most of them are efficient.
Good luck
MT4, QChartist, Stooq, Alpha Vantage, TC 2000, TradingView, Yahoo Finance
  • #176
  • Sep 2, 2018 10:28am Sep 2, 2018 10:28am
Quoting Drolph
Ok, did not spend much time editing the user input to be honest - thought the default ones would fit the basic needs. Using your recommended settings leads to even worse results. :/ But yeah, let me know when there is something to test. It is possible to create a grid in a reliable way with attractive risk/reward. But the current version of your GoWithFlow unfortunately is not recommended to use. I have attached two risk settings of my own self-coded grid EA to give you a glimpse of the risk/reward ratio you should try to aim. I don not want to...
I noticed your tests are from 2015 to 2019
How you can test future price?
  • #177
  • Sep 2, 2018 10:34am Sep 2, 2018 10:34am
Success with martingale is only possible if your system can survive 3k pip drop...because that will happen sooner or later.
  • #178
  • Sep 2, 2018 10:38am Sep 2, 2018 10:38am
Quoting Redbaron81
Success with martingale is only possible if your system can survive 3k pip drop...because that will happen sooner or later.
To survive that end of world situation you need a really big account or just cut the losses after a predetermined absolute DD.
  • #179
  • Sep 4, 2018 12:09am Sep 4, 2018 12:09am
Martingale always leads to big losses
  • #180
  • Sep 17, 2018 8:15am Sep 17, 2018 8:15am
Hi KashifNawaz, i've been always skeptical about grid/martingale system.
I appreciate a lot your sharing, thanks! As i can see from your myfxbook this EA is working out nice for you.
Let me know if you would like a mt5 version of it, i think i could do that.
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