Diversified Trend Trading Approach

Predictions

Hehehehe. We can't stop ourselves T :-)

Small token of appreciation for all the food for thought this thread has provided. Great work, and awesome music!

This is perfect... lol love it......

Cheers Nik

Copernicus..... thanks for feeding my brain with interesting stuff!
Some great posts!

Thanks H....and likewise mate :-)

The danger of linear thinking, the plight of unbridled resource exploitation, the challenge for democracy and the ultimate secret sauce to real 'sustainable' wealth.....where you strip away the confusing symptoms and meet the 'inconvenient truth of perpetual growth head on'. :-)

Why I like Pepperstone. Good to see internal processes at work.

That's the way we should be interpreting it T. We are an emergent artifact of this universe and one of it's expressions....like waves in the ocean. If we think about it and don't believe in mysticism where we can create a something from nothing, the information (or meaning) has always been just there but it has just been distilled into human 'form'. Unfortunately we get a bit biased with our supposed 'intelligence' and get it arse-end about where we attribute meaning to self in an otherwise dumb universe....You start thinking that it is the self that creates meaning and purpose and hence out comes the ego, when in fact it was imparted to us all along in this ordered beautiful creative system within which we are embedded.

Here you go T. Some thoughts to chew on over the weekend.

An amazing educator in action at the deepest levels discussing a universe derived from Indolence, Anarchy and Ignorance. :-)



You may have seen a similar diagram to this before on this very forum *scratches head*....I wonder where/tic?

A Lesson in Survivorship Bias

Sometimes it pays to think holistically.



From wiki

During World War II, Abraham Wald was a member of the Statistical Research Group (SRG) where he applied his statistical skills to various wartime problems. These included methods of sequential analysis and sampling inspection. One of the problems that the SRG worked on was to examine the distribution of damage to aircraft to provide advice on how to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire.

There was an inclination within the military to consider providing greater protection to parts that received more damage but Wald made the assumption that damage must be more uniformly distributed and that the aircraft that did return or show up in the samples were hit in the less vulnerable parts. Wald noted that the study only considered the aircraft that had survived their missions—the bombers that had been shot down were not present for the damage assessment.

The holes in the returning aircraft, then, represented areas where a bomber could take damage and still return home safely. Wald proposed that the Navy instead reinforce the areas where the returning aircraft were unscathed, since those were the areas that, if hit, would cause the plane to be lost. His work is considered seminal in the then-fledgling discipline of operational research.

when forecasters fail to get their doom and gloom prediction right in real life; they blame it on the cycle being very long this time; which really means; their prediction is correct.

the doom and gloom may happen this year, next year, or next decade; or next 50 years

some of them can even predict the exact fraction of the year 2039.95!!