I think what NG is saying is not just look at the expected number but what also must be considered is market sentiment and the sentiment is made by on going news reports and the feel in the market which is also created by the media whether the perception are true or false the perception is what actually moves the market in a certain direction.
Last week during the non farm week for example the dollar was strong against the Eur all week even on the day or NFP. so even though the number came <st1ersonName w:st="on">out</st1ersonName> terrible for the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">US</st1lace></st1:country-region> it was already priced in because everyone sensed it was going to be bad already do their was no big move up in the EUR instead the USD strengthened even more.
This weekend what was the news for OIL that Saudi might cut oil what is a good pair to trade? CAD/JPY high oil prices good for the CAD bad for the yen plus the North Korean Nuclear test taking place on Sunday but actually happen today is bad for the JPY. now i don't know ab<st1ersonName w:st="on">out</st1ersonName> trading it all day but the cad has been rising against the yen since 11:00 pm EST Sunday night and still is. I think it is just more than the numbers but have to be in line what market feeling so need to read the Financial news to keep abreast of things.
But this is a very important post thanks NG and makes sense