Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others) | Page 22 | Forex Factory

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Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

  • #421
  • Edited 12:40pm Aug 27, 2018 12:07pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting blackwinter
USDTRY I just realized that swaps increased to 4 times in UsdTry in pepperstone..fantastic..maybe they reduced pip value i dont know..not opened a position for a week..maybe because of public holiday in Try..
USDTRY

It seems, swap rates rised higher permanently..so, holding long UsdTry over days is too costly now..and shorting is more profitable if not lira collapse further when holding short UsdTry..pip value has changed some in my broker..it was approx. $220 in each 100 pips for 1 lot..now approx. $160..short swap was around 200 plus a few weeks ago..now more than 800..

So, it seems swap rates has increased probably swap reduction arrangement of Turkish Banking Authority two weeks ago..because, CB's implicit interest rate hike to %19,25 shouldnt cause such an increase..swap rates (%30(according to Twitter sources)), 2 year gov bond rates (%24,5) and CB interest rates (%19,25) has differentiated..
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #422
  • Aug 27, 2018 2:40pm Aug 27, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting Ced74
To all the learned people here what just caused this large spike on the usdtry. R

Blackwinter is right. Erdogan had made some blunderous statements. Then, the financial release showed less than stellar business confidence and higher debt (right when Erdogan makes the "bankrupt" statement. The spike seems relative to the time of this release. I wasn't watching it at the time so I'm counting the hours.

Save this page and set the time to your local time. Keep a close eye around the news releases at least so you don't get pinched.
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  • #423
  • Aug 27, 2018 3:24pm Aug 27, 2018 3:24pm
Quoting blackwinter
USD INDEX 4h charts now at 200 MA..this can provide some support for a while..but i expect it will break down soon..maybe tomorrow, maybe next week.. Daily has approached to 50 MA..it will touch to it soon, i guess..it may hold for a while.. Weekly..we are under 100/200 MAs..and it seems we will end this week under those MAs.. Maybe, thanks to Trump we are at the beginning of USD index downtrend..he looks very determined about depreciating USD..and we should consider that sep and dec fed hikes have already priced in..however there is an important...
USD INDEX

4H chart..it is fabulous to see how perfectly MAs respected when coming down..now we are under 200MA too..bearish now..

Daily..broken down 50 MA..looks bearish

Weekly..we have closed under 100/200 MA last week..we continue down..

Monthly..we are around 50 MA..if we close around here monthly candle will be ended with a nice up pin which implies returning down in next months..

Usd index drop make trading exotics tough, since most of us think that fundies of Zar and Try are very weak..

Btw..we are coming to end of august..end of summer season..with a higher volume usd may become stronger again..one more thing..before big crisis, volatility usually increase significantly..if Turkish currency crisis turns to debt crisis and hurts Eu area, Usd may go higher again with a lower Euro..

All in all, I m more favor of weaker Usd index in coming months now considering charts and Trump effect..
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #424
  • Aug 27, 2018 4:53pm Aug 27, 2018 4:53pm
usdMXN
Remarks by President Trump in Phone Call with President Peņa Nieto
of Mexico on the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement
Transcript
  • #425
  • Aug 27, 2018 5:19pm Aug 27, 2018 5:19pm
Quoting Aussi
those who dare >>>>. mxn

USDMXN

I bought tiny lots in UsdMxn at 18.79..all good news out already..maybe time to close gap now..risky (because of drooping usd index) but i try..
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #426
  • Aug 27, 2018 5:45pm Aug 27, 2018 5:45pm
usdZAR

Source - Fin24
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  • #427
  • Aug 27, 2018 5:54pm Aug 27, 2018 5:54pm
usdZAR
Sauce
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  • #428
  • Aug 27, 2018 6:08pm Aug 27, 2018 6:08pm
usdZAR

If they persist with the rhetoric, Don is likely to respond. (Observational)

Farm owners (both black and white, mostly white) are calling on Trump for help. they're asking for investigations. Probabilities are Trump will respond.
Those for land expropriation are focused on the issue of race and revenge for colonization in 1913.
Whites are just as stubborn. Civil war might be a catalyst to currency devaluation over long term.

Financially, the pro-land expropriators are likely to destroy the economy, but only if it happens on a wide scale. Otherwise, it will just rock the currency with news of it. I think they are likely to keep it as hush as possible? Time will tell.

Many of you know this already, I've confirmed it with on line data sources. FYI
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  • #429
  • Aug 27, 2018 6:14pm Aug 27, 2018 6:14pm
SA Government: UK and SA to solidify economic ties. - 11 hours

There are a lot of healthy gov't moves. I have yet to determine legitimacy. Hard to keep up
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  • #430
  • Aug 27, 2018 6:18pm Aug 27, 2018 6:18pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDMXN I bought tiny lots in UsdMxn at 18.79..all good news out already..maybe time to close gap now..risky (because of drooping usd index) but i try.. {image}
usdMXN

I looked at it for potential trades. It's at a point where I need to let the market decide if it will catapult to a bullish run or retreat. Good to watch.
  • #431
  • Aug 27, 2018 6:43pm Aug 27, 2018 6:43pm
USDZAR

Daily chart looks bearish..

4h is just above 100 MA..it looks ready to bounce up..but Usd index weakness make it difficult to take a decision for me..i m just watching..no position yet..
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #432
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:15pm Aug 27, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting blackwinter
USDZAR Daily chart looks bearish.. 4h is just above 100 MA..it looks ready to bounce up..but Usd index weakness make it difficult to take a decision for me..i m just watching..no position yet.. {image} {image}
I don't see a bottom, y et, on the daily. I'm hoping it will go to the 50ma on the daily.
  • #433
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:27pm Aug 27, 2018 7:27pm
Quoting 2dollardog
{quote} I don't see a bottom, y et, on the daily. I'm hoping it will go to the 50ma on the daily.
USDZAR

Agree..not bottomed..bounces will probably be sold again..daily and weekly looks quite bearish..longs should be only for scalps for now..50 MA daily is around 13.70..looks possible in coming weeks if Usd index weakness continue..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #434
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:30pm Aug 27, 2018 7:30pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDMXN I bought tiny lots in UsdMxn at 18.79..all good news out already..maybe time to close gap now..risky (because of drooping usd index) but i try.. {image}
Exited with a few pips my UsdMxn long..no need risk..i have only gbpusd and gbpjpy longs now..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #435
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:33pm Aug 27, 2018 7:33pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} USDMXN I bought tiny lots in UsdMxn at 18.79..all good news out already..maybe time to close gap now..risky (because of drooping usd index) but i try.. {image}
glad to see you making money mate no matter what it should close the gap>>> when is the hard part waiting is even harder , i have on the fall bought again i will post what i have done shortly regards from dave
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  • #436
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:36pm Aug 27, 2018 7:36pm
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it seems it might be going down again here's hoping
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  • #437
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:39pm Aug 27, 2018 7:39pm
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i just got a sell on try we see during the day what it does
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  • #438
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:44pm Aug 27, 2018 7:44pm
Quoting Aussi
{quote} glad to see you making money mate no matter what it should close the gap>>> when is the hard part waiting is even harder , i have on the fall bought again i will post what i have done shortly regards from dave
thanks a lot Dave..actually i m a bit demoralized..i m behind my targets (%1 daily)..but trying to keep my morale up..

last 3 weeks i m just earning some and losing again..earning and losing...then finishing at same place where i start..i think, most of my loss came from fear exits..so, despite lesser leverage it seems i should decrease my leverage more..may i ask what is your averageand maximum leverage ? Do you trade lesser than 1:1 leverage ?
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #439
  • Aug 27, 2018 7:50pm Aug 27, 2018 7:50pm
usdZAR
Sold 14.1562
  • #440
  • Aug 27, 2018 8:06pm Aug 27, 2018 8:06pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} thanks a lot Dave..actually i m a bit demoralized..i m behind my targets (%1 daily)..but trying to keep my morale up.. last 3 weeks i m just earning some and losing again..earning and losing...then finishing at same place where i start..i think, most of my loss came from fear exits..so, despite lesser leverage it seems i should decrease my leverage more..may i ask what is your averageand maximum leverage ? Do you trade lesser than 1:1 leverage ?
on icm my leverage is 1-200 i don't change it on xm i use 1-100 , , your fear exit is a problem using your real money , i was the same using my first real account for i watched and saw the account go down and panic get rid of the trade only to see it go up again when i did , to help you its a hard thing because its in your mind if you look at the chart on one hour and see the rises and falls over a extended chart you will see how it works instead of trading do a exercise on paper and see where you would get in and sell it i know its not the same as live trading but worth the look blackwinter ., kindest regards from dave
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