Big News - Bond traders please contribute.

Thanks plymgary.

Okay We have three scenarios...

1. Australian Bonds getting downgraded to AA+ (short on the Aussie). Any announcement is probably a long way off and a downgrade would depend upon continued high levels of deficit spending.
2. Trump getting impeached (short on the Greenback and long on the Euro). With a Republican Congress it's unlikely they would impeach unless the FBI turns up evidence of collusion and I think that is also unlikely. If they make a case on some other issue Congress probably won't take action and it would be well reported and realativly slow moving.
3. Hard Brexit (short on the Pound). I have not been paying attention honestly, you can expect me to have something to say in the next update.

If you can comment on the likelihood of any of those possibilities or justify any pip values for them please post a reply. The figure I have on the Aussie Bond scenario is 500 pips but all I have to back that up is some pundits opinion.

And don't let my handle confuse you, I hated Clinton with a passion, I supported Sanders. I think you guys need to start leading the world again by levying an annual flat tax on all assets other than real estate and private businesses and use the money exclusively for economic stimulus in the form of basic income. The vast majority of economists agree that wealth disparity is a growing drain on the economy and the only tax that would combat it is a wealth tax. Mandating that all financial entities must give a flat annual rate of domestic charity out of their liquid assets would be better (I'd recommend 2.5% ) but socialism is a distant second.

I'm off to explore the rest of the internet, I'll be back.

Hi altleftshift,

When you suggested your thread yesterday, I checked it out right away, and I was thinking about it. I am in a similar situation as you are, with the same budget. I will never be able to collect such amount of money, ever again, therefore this is my last chance to prove that I am worth my salt. Also, there is a significant pressure from my surrounding. However I know that it wouldn't be a rational decision from me to give in to such pressure. Thus, I defeat pressure by cultivating patience while I live the kind of life I don't want to live. I believe, without such sacrifice, there will be no worthwhile riches - neither material nor spiritual.

I am (not even) a beginner trader yet, and for me the most important thing is to acknowledge where exactly I stand in hierarchy. There isn’t a better place to start at, but the place that you exactly stand at. My experience is that most mistakes happen when we exceed our powers and act from caprice rather than rationality. Decisions are erratic, rationality is smooth and consistent.

My intention is not to discourage you, but to convince you to wait a bit in order to build more power, because believe me the more power you’ll have the most efficient your moves will be. Also, I feel that you don't really want to take this trade yet - I could be wrong. But, perhaps you have thought about these already - I am not conceited. My impression is that you are heading the right way, as far as your curiosity is concerned.

I think power is gained when theory is empirically challenged. And, we as beginner traders have more theory, than practice. Thus, we have no choice, but to enter the market with baby steps. For me to hasten the process would be like putting the cart before the horse. I value patience above brute force. I want to give myself a chance – not to take chance away. Courage without intellect is blind, therefore deconstructive. But, I am sure that the time will come, when I’ll be able to handle such bold moves as you are thinking of now.

Also, I am very aware of my virtues, which is patience, tolerance and awareness. I think it is important to know your strengths when you enter the battle field. Strengths aren’t strengths unless they have been challenged and withstood the onslaught of time. And, I could never even dream of making a move that would consequentially turn against me. I know, it could happen, but I could reduce that chance by contemplation. In other words, I want to be able to handle the risks of my decisions/actions with dignity! But, I'll be able to do it only if it's clear to me where I stand as a trader.

Self awareness and self knowledge I believe is the absolute foundation of sound decisions. I don't know you and perhaps you can manage such move without a significant backlash. I also can't advise anything, because I am very far away from such decisions. It is you only who knows what you are doing. I wish you the best, and I wish that you have a good plan backed up by perception and analysis. And, I also wish to hear from you in the future.

Forgive me for talking about myself, but I can’t contribute anything worthy to your otherwise admirable thread. Also, I am sorry for not being able to keep up yet with the subject you have raised. However, I think your initiation is worthy of thought. In fact, your post opened me up to things I've never really thought of or even heard of.

All the best,
A.

P.S.
Thanks for inviting me to your thread. By the way, who's your broker?

I have been doubting my courage to risk all our discretionary savings to the dice more and more. I am enjoying this hobby and my wife would make me give it up if I lost that much money. I just occasionally think that it's a waste of time at $7.50 an hour (particularly after a losing trade) but perhaps fate will intervene and provide some benefit if I just forget about the money and do it for the fun. I'm a part time economics student and a home dad at the moment and the forex is really accelerating the growth of my knowledge of macroeconomics which is my main interest after religion and family.

I don't think I have enough stupids to pull the trigger with 70% at 100:1 but I'll take the trades that turn up here with leverage varying upon the stop losses which I will continue to set at a maximum of 5% of my equity for the time being and with a view to reducing the risk on any single trade to a maximum of 1% by the time I accumulate $100,000. Assuming this isn't beginners luck and I continue to accumulate pennies I will get there in 10 years.

My broker is Pepperstone and let me recommend another thread to you.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=798241

Hi Altleftshift. I found my trading really came along after looking at the successful, red flag, members who post their trades in the Interactive Trading forum. I found it much more useful than any other forum on this site.

I never copy what they do (you have to find your own way), but it definitely is a great source for inspiration and ideas. Of course, like everywhere on this site there are the numpties who know sod all- just have to sort the wheat from the chaff.

Here's one for you. Sterling is undervalued due to brexit pressure.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/cab...-deal-20180829