Big News - Bond traders please contribute.

This thread is a place where you can find and share possible news events that would quickly move any currency pair 200 pips (2% or 3%) or more if they came to pass. Personally I am more interested in the rare 500 pip moves (5% or 8%), it's upcoming news events that may trigger cliffs like the one that accompanied Brexit or the one that accompanied the Swiss National Bank scrapping the Euro ceiling that I want to be warned about and we can throw in our poultry 200 pippers for good measure. I have a feeling that the sure things will be based on capital flows to and from the different bond markets and I would love some input from bond market professionals.

Aside:

The American government is creating inflation with deficit funded stimulus I am expecting that interest rates will rise too high, too quickly, and prick the massive global debt bubble again. The unmistakable long term trend in interest rates is downward and when the bubble bursts this time I would expect NIRP and more QE. I have a very limited understanding of SDR's but my gut feeling is that following that they will eventually be adopted as the global reserve currency in order to absorb excess Dollars, Yen, Yuan and what have you and take them out of the real economies. I think that the big thing to watch this time round may be the bond markets. America is amassing debt at an astounding rate in the midst of what should really be called a boom and I am afraid that towards the end of this period of stability the majority of the big moves in the Forex are going to centre around a general loss of confidence in the major economies government debt. I may be wrong but something will eventually give and when the fear kicks in again we will all be needing the a put from the Fed.

What am I dooming on about? Global debt reserves are at an all time high! I have some bonds to watch so lets get the ball rolling.

S&P gave a negative outlook on the triple A credit rating of Australian government debt in 2016 and I have heard in the media that there are international interests (the details of which I am not aware) that invest huge amounts of money exclusively in AAA rated debt. I have heard that if the Australian governments credit rating is downgraded to AA+ these interests will pull their money and this would cause an immediate 500 pip dive in the AUD/USD.

Can you comment on this or think of another example?

PLEASE NO MORE THAN ONE OFF TOPIC POST! TALK ABOUT THE NEXT CRASH OR BIG NEWS MOSTLY! SERIOUS OFFENDERS WILL BE BLOCKED! I WILL POST SUMMARIES OF THE NEWS ITEMS WE ARE WATCHING FOR PERIODICALLY SO THAT NEWCOMERS DON'T HAVE TO WADE THROUGH ALL THE SPAM, IF THAT'S YOU GO TO THE LAST PAGE AND START FROM THE TOP AND YOU SHOULD FIND AN UPDATE.

PS.

I edited this post substantially after 22 replies so the first page makes little sense.

Sub-ed.

Very interesting concept you have there. Event driven trades. Look forward to hearing more from you!

Events that move a pair 500 pips or more are rare. You can however get several events a week that can give you a good weekly return. Your on the right path just look to scale down your expectations.

I know they are rare but I have only ten hours a week for trading and in any case I wouldn't want to make a habit of going all in at 100:1. I can wait a couple of years for my one big make or break gamble and then, depending on the outcome I will either give up the forex or continue speculate conservatively with the acquisition of a nice house in a relatively short period of time becoming an achievable goal.

Ten hours a week is more than enough to trade news events. What you are trying to do won't end well

That is a very risky mindset!
Trust me. You shouldn't go all-in no matter how much conviction you have in a trade. Always leave some gas in the tank!

I only have AU$10,000 to play with and I want to turn that into AU$1,000,000 and buy a nice house in a quiet suburb within ten or twelve years. I need one big risky bet that will pay eight or ten to one to get me started or the hourly rate I would be working for just wouldn't be worth it. I could spend 20 years compounding $10,000 at 30% a year and even if i didn't pay tax I wouldn't have enough for a deposit on the sort of house I want. There would be fuel left in the tank, if I lose I will have about $3,000 left over but I'd just take that out and buy an entertainment system or something and anyway; I'm not telling you to do it, I am just telling you my plan, you can risk only one percent of your equity on any one trade that turns up here, that is what I would do the second time around but just this once I'm going to risk 70%. The way I see it this will probably be the boost I need to make my endeavour worth while and if I lose then no big deal; what is it? The difference between a new car and three year old car.

I'm not naturally a gambler but I'll break my risk management strategy just one time. Read my reply on page one of this thread to find out what I have been doing up till now: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=790889

You can call me a gambler and you can call me a chump. I might get wiped out but I won't come back for seconds either way.

End of conversation.

Looking for 10-baggers? Better to go to the options market rather than wait for an FX trade that might not happen for years.

You have a bit of a gamblers mentality with that type of trading so look @ individual stocks that are likely to make big moves from a news release. OTM options will double, triple, quadruple in 1 day. Happens every day in the right stocks especially during earnings season.

Better to have more chances trying for doubles/triples than 1 huge home run.

Here's a few options moves today from a quick search. Many, many more.

Unsub.

You had an interesting concept, but Im afraid with the kind of mindset and "I want XYZ" attitude that this might not end well. In any case, good luck!

You'd be better off using that money as part of a deposit for a house. Guaranteed you will lose it all the way you are planning

Wait for a new war to start and long oil. Should not take too long imo.

It sounds like it would take a lot of study srt and honestly I'm more interested in macroeconomics than finance; that's what attracted me to the Forex in the first place. Also, as I said, I am not much of a gambler I just need one huge home run in the first inninngs if I am to get anything tangible from trading the Forex. In a low interest rate environment the percentage gains are very impressive but with little equity the dollar signs are not there and I am getting fed up.

You are very negative EcoTrader; house prices in Australia are freaking astronomical, my parents bought a four bedroom house here in the 80's with a three year mortgage while my wife and I have had to sign up for a ten year mortgage on a two bedroom flat. We are starting a family and we will soon need more space; we can afford to lose $10,000 and I really do think that the odds of winning once are substantially better than even. One AU$10,000 100:1 short on the Aussie with a 50 pip stop loss upon news of a credit downgrade (which may never come) and even if I didn't come out with $100,000 the odds are I would come out even or in positive territory as the chances of it stopping me out if I took my position after it had developed some downward momentum would be remote.

Thanks anyway srt.

Wish me luck everbody and give us all a scenario (however unlikely) that would precipitate a 500 pip move in a currency. Twelve posts in and I'm still the only contributor.

A few years ago, I met an arab guy in an online trading room who turned $1.000 into $100.000 within a few weeks, simply by trading news and not using a Stop Loss. Instead he doubled down every X pips the market went against him (martingale). In the end he came out as a winner all the time. Was quite fascinating to witness. So yes, it is possible.

However, eventually he bet on the wrong horse at some FED decision and the follow up conference. He lost $90.000 within a week and only pulled the trigger when he was down to $10.000. Then he disappeared from the trading room. He really was one of a kind. Still nice to turn $1.000 into $10.000 in a short period of time though.

But the morale of this story: High risk trades with Martingale strategy work, until they don't.

Expecting a "500 pips" move in one go is quite unrealistic though. The last time this happened was at the global financial crisis 2008. You can get weekly movement of 50-100 pips though, depending on the impact of the news.

Be more realistic and you may reach your goal. Since you said you have $10.000 available "to lose," you can of course do the same: Simply trade without Stop Loss. But still don't go "full retard" and "all in." Never go "full retard." $10.000 is a big buffer. Trade 0.10 Lot or if you want to be more conservative 0.01 Lot and double down every 25 or 50 Pips or so and TP at either a fixed sum or fixed Pips target.

However, if you are new at trading, chances are still high that you lose it even with a big buffer. It is like sitting the first time on a beast of a motorbike. If you don't know the power of that beast and can't control it or your temper, chances are high you will have a fatal crash.

Trade careful!

There are numerous examples of 500 pip moves, there is almost always one every year or two and the near misses are far more common; Brexit was closer to 1,000 pips and my example could render a 500 pip plus move if it came to pass.


Have you even read my posts? Risking 70% of my equity one time is hardly equivalent to doubling down with my active trades profits continuously and on multiple occasions.


I would certainly be a loser if I took any of your advice.

ANYWAY, THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT MY MOTIVATION OR MY RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY IT IS ABOUT SHARING SCENARIOS THAT WOULD PRECIPITATE LARGE VERTICAL MOVES ON THE FOREX. PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC!

After i read the first post i was like WHATTTTTTT??????? Hope to buy a house???? I think your whole concept is upside down! You have to do something else instead. Do find a concept a system that works and make sure you execute every single trade as best as you can following that working formula. This is the only way to do anything. Your mindset is coming from scarcity and hope which will definitely lead you to a failure. The goal does not make the result but the process you follow to the goal. Good luck with your quest .... )

Instead of sitting there and waiting for that one big event which may or may not happen in 1 or 2 years to go "all-in" and risk wiping your account in one go, you can setup orders in that "10 hours a week" you have and let it run. This will most likely bring you closer to your desired goal as the one big event you are hoping for. And even with that big event, you can't turn $10.000 into $1.000.000 in one trade anyway. Even if you are on the right side.

Have you even read my post? I told you about one guy who "Hundret Bagged" his account in a couple of weeks trading news and you are like "STOP GIVING ME TIPS FFS! I ONLY WANT TO TRADE BIG NEWS THAT WILL MOVE THE FOREX!"

Uhm yea, whatever. Good luck! Stay green!

Sorry mw108, that was harsh.


I'm new to financial speculation and I'm taking trades on the daily charts based on technical analysis which is helping me to gain an understanding of the impact of the news on the markets. I'm averaging about 3% a month low to moderate risk and I'm not trying to turn $10,000 into $1,000,000 in one trade, the one trade target is $100,000; that's the amount I have estimated that I will need to start with if I hope to compound to $1,000,000 over 10 years and upgrade my accommodation. If I can't achieve that I would rather not waste my time so I'm all in for a full house.


I'm sorry I was rude but not looking for anecdotes, I'm looking for specific future news events that have the potential to move Forex, please feel free to post and scenarios you think would be of interest.

What was the impact of the greek crisis which threatened to destabilise the euro - and indeed the entire economic system - on the value of eur/usd?

Well, the anecdote was just to show that it is indeed possible to make a lot of money in a short time in Forex, but that you also have to be careful. In fact I'm actually the only guy here so far who supports your idea and isn't a negative nanny and "nay sayer."

All I can say is try to capitalize on the daily economic news. Just look at the AUDUSD alone this month: You already got over 500 Pips movement. What are you waiting for?

Don't want to be rude, so don't get me wrong. But if you can't capitalize on the normal news, why do you expect to do it from big events? Besides that, really big events have a lot of negative side effects: Huge spread, massive slippage, greatly reduced leverage, etc.

Wonder how the USD would react should Trump be impeached? I imagine that would be a 500+ pip move?

Or, if the UK exits the EU without a deal - that could trigger a 500+ move too?

Let's hope one of those things happens.