Real reason why 99% lose - daytrading

In the dawn of time (market modeling time, that is) this was called "weak form efficiency."

For day trading, it means even if someone can extract enough signal to build a winning strategy, the signal is almost always so weak that the expected value of a trade is inside the bid/offer spread. That's how casinos work, and why anybody running any kind of casino wants their customers to trade (or pull slot handle/roll the dice) starting early and often.

Yes, professional do of course much better but...they are also losing money

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FX hedge funds lost money in six of the last eight years, the Parker Global Index data showed.

In this article, they explain that their strategies are losing money because of randomness of the FX market:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/marke...llar-perplexes

Actually, you are right that they are the only ones making consistently money...but not from their trading...but from the fees they still charge to their customers whether they win or they lose!

It's a HG for my purpose based on how I currently trade but it may currently be useless to you. I'd have to search and try to dig for the post because I have no idea in which thread I had read it. It was just a post I had read about 1 year ago which seemed cool at the time but not amazing; however, after learning some more things since then and trading as I currently do, it's pretty much a HG on my end now. I might make a thread and share that idea in more detail but in the mean time, keep searching and develop your own tool box. Once you're better developed, a lot of things will look like a HG anyway. In any case, just find what works for you.

Yeah I’ll keep on searching for my HG as well.

Oh? Are you referring to EMH?

I don't remember having that part of the theory
Isn't EMH just about the speed of flow of information and the markets ability to price that in?

or might as well try out weekend trading.
excuses people come up with for "their" failures and lack of understanding of the complex and dynamic system market is just laughable.

Let me spill the secret right now OP yes you're right, day trading is rigged game so is trading - profitable traders do not exist.
The whole game is playing against us - including the brokers.
I guess you believe what you want to believe....... but be careful you might just get what you wish for.

Thanks for sharing your view about the reasons that are behind the failure of day trading traders. Day trading is one of the widely used trading styles where a trader analyzes a trade for the whole day, but he makes the decision to close the trade at the end of the day either with profit or lose. It means that a day trader does not leave his position on a currency pair waiting overnight.

Thanks for your contribution. It is 48-48 payout on short timeframes trying to guess 3rd and 4th digit in every combination possible using daytrading where price moves not even 1 cent where every daytrader lose which 1st diagram explains, and doing opposite of price also prove that doing opposite of losing trades also lose long term doing short term strategy (400$ bank goes to 0)

But if we use only 1st and 2nd digit (waithing weeks not days) of price and compound where price moves moves over 1,2,3 cents in long term trend with higher stop loss 3 years looks like this.

Long term trends:



GBP/CAD 200 pips renko, drawdown was 6 cents. So compounding every 200 pips with stop loss 300. When account is doubled on leverage 200?

It's mainly luck.. I made an experiment and traded at night for a month-no difference

EAs never work in the long run, my brah. The best traders in the world don't use EAs. They either trade manually or use algorithms worth millions of dollars that the everyday person wouldn't even dream of using, let alone have one.

So it is not important does trader do long term or short term - they will lose. In any given data over time there is 50%-50% minus spread so it is not important do trader do buy or sell. Probability changes depending of stop loss and profit target.

But what makes me think how to profit in short term daily on probability events, there is only one mathematical edge to exploit - standard deviation of multiple independent events.

When first time tested this edge it was too much profitable average 400-600 pips per day so I canceled it. It was to fast so I discarged it thinking it is impossible.

3075 pips in 7 days. That is impossible but it is based on standard deviation of multiple events.

Thank You

Why would anyone believe that only because they are failing at day trading then everyone has to fail in the long run? Just accept the fact that successfull traders have a set of skills that you don’t have.
With proper risk management it is nearly IMPOSSIBLE to blow an account.

I blew a couple of accounts a few years back for a fairly decent amount of money for two reasons:
1- I didn’t put in the effort of learning therefore I was a clueless idiot.
2- I wanted to get rich quick.

I still consider myself an inexperienced trader (am I even a trader?) but now i know one thing, in the long run, if I stay disciplined I am profitable.

Hi, Money management is crucial to be profitable and also the discipline over the system

Psychology dictates greed and fear , it messes up money management. Psychology is the key.




https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=810287

Most traders lose because most traders connect highs and lows of historical trades that can no longer be traded, then use that data to trade the live market. As a former business analyst, the way to predict future demand is to use averages. With averages, you can determine probability. The average of a line connecting two lows/highs together is 0. There is no probability. The average of price touching one of those lines is 0. There is no probability. Every trade taken, based on a line, is an outright guess. If you are not educated in basic Statistics and have a solid understanding of Trigonometry, then you should not be trading. But, just like everyone thinks they can sing, everyone thinks they can trade. Comparing successful singers to all singers probably yields the same percentage as comparing successful traders to all traders. It takes talent and experience. Either you commit to achieving them, or you fail.

But that only addresses the mathematical issues. Gambling is illegal in most areas, at least in the United States, so most traders do not have any gambling experience. They are not emotionally and mentally prepared to risk money, no matter if they win or lose. So, if you are gambling on lines, for instance, then each trade is loaded with indecision before you place it, then anxiety as you wait to see if you are correct, then panic if price goes the other direction.

Between the lack of education that creates really poor trading systems, and the inability to risk money properly, most traders are doomed to fail.

The OP refers to position traders, or more commonly known as investors, as some magical breed of successful traders. It is simply not true. A time frame is just a time frame. If you can trade a monthly chart, you can trade an hourly chart. They only differ in range from high to low and the frequency of the ranges. Otherwise, they all draw the same patterns. They can be traded using the same probabilities. It is incorrect to state that a long-term trader will make money and a short-term trader will not. Because of the frequency, the short-term trader can make more money than the long-term trader because he has more opportunities. The short-term trader can also lose faster because he has a higher frequency of trades. If you don't have a good trading system though, it doesn't matter what time frame you use. You will just lose less trades on a higher one because they occur less frequently, but you are also more likely to lose more pips because the range is higher. It is the same thing. You lose either way.

Just because you have not seen a profitable strategy or met a profitable trader does not mean they do not exist. Many businesses do not openly share their intellectual property. That is a stupid way to conduct business, lol. Anyway, it is incorrect to categorize day traders against position traders and assume there is a difference in their profit potential. It is the same potential. One loses less money per trade but more frequently, while the other loses more money per trade but less frequently. Or, one knows how to trade and trades the time frame that best fits their life. While a lot of traders focus on pips, you can also make a lot of money through risk. If you are consistent, you can risk more per trade to compensate for less pips per trade. It all depends on your strategy.