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  • #1,101
  • Edited 2:28pm Aug 21, 2018 2:14pm | Edited 2:28pm
this starts to give me some adrenaline. I am thinking, had I misunerstood something totally. But looks like fundamentals did not change, there is just market for some reaosning listening to Trump

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So maybe just good price to take extra shorts? This writer writes that we should ignore trump: https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=810610

I am afraid that my SL could be hit. But if we need to be bearish still, then maybe I should widen the SL. I have 1.75 % risk with this SL. I have set to risk max 2 % at a time. I dont widen SL. But I am thinking, if my SL is hit, and I still am bearish, fundamentals bearish, I have to open another position with wider SL and it still looks like same as if I now would widen up the SL. And if I widen up now, I dont pay extra spread for broker.

But I see there is also who says rally has ended. But not sure. Evem if it has ended, it does not mean maybe that dollar should start fall. It could go sideways than.

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One more hope is that EU stops rising - DXY looks like reached support

One more thing - more retail traders started shorting eurusd than longing on forex factory, on myfxbook, and on dailyfx. So who is then rising this price if retail is shorting? Institutions? Why they believe trump will affect the interest rate?
  • #1,102
  • Aug 21, 2018 2:50pm Aug 21, 2018 2:50pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
this starts to give me some adrenaline. I am thinking, had I misunerstood something totally. But looks like fundamentals did not change, there is just market for some reaosning listening to Trump {image} So maybe just good price to take extra shorts? This writer writes that we should ignore trump: https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=810610 I am afraid that my SL could be hit. But if we need to be bearish still, then maybe I should widen the SL. I have 1.75 % risk with this SL. I have set to risk max 2 % at a time. I dont...
that is the nature of trading or investing.. there is always the retracement as nothing does straight down... or straight up. No, Trump's comments on the Fed mean nothing. Powell can care less what Trump thinks as he has no influence over the Fed. Though this is a perfect reason for the USD to take a breather.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,103
  • Aug 22, 2018 12:34am Aug 22, 2018 12:34am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Woke up to see I had been stopped out on Euro. Trumps complaints about Powell raising rates has really pushed the euro and pound up. Only time will tell whether this is just sentiment or a complete reversal. There was reverse head and shoulders in place on EUR/USD which did told the technical story about buyers being in control My only trade that remains in play is USD/TRY {image} {image}
My USD/Try is still in a tiny bit of profit but it's the weakness of TRY holding it up.
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  • #1,104
  • Aug 22, 2018 12:55am Aug 22, 2018 12:55am
Quoting mtawunge
{quote} Which broker are you using. My brokers xm, hotforex has disabled Turkish lira @samson85
I use CMC Markets.

The lira was being disabled from time to time on alot platforms.
  • #1,105
  • Aug 22, 2018 1:52am Aug 22, 2018 1:52am
opened one more small short and now have full risk - 1.98 %. Because it broke consolidation in 5 minute chart at 1.1566 . Hopefully this will be now a resistance. Plus H4 bearish pinbar also helps hopefully. And as others said - trump comments are just the pullback. CAD forecast Core Retail Sales m/m is bad, USD Existing Home Sales is good. Plan to close before CAD release.

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  • #1,106
  • Aug 22, 2018 7:10am Aug 22, 2018 7:10am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} My USD/Try is still in a tiny bit of profit but it's the weakness of TRY holding it up. {image}
there is an week long national holiday in Turkey this week.. Hence the very little movements in the Lira.

Should be pick up volatility next week.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,107
  • Edited 7:43am Aug 22, 2018 7:24am | Edited 7:43am
plan terribly not working by fundamentals. It is close to SL, and soon will be CAD news. I now think that its not worth to close before news as planned because it near SL and near resistance of august 8 high anyway, if I news move price up, then it will loose just a little. If there is some mirracle and price is moved down, I could get back much more.

And still I think expectations are that FED will raise rates and ignoer Trump. I think if I close, then price will start to move down I could be an indicator

Update: cad Retail Sales m/m worse than expected. Eur ignores this, USDCAD even fell. :|

One more article: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-trump-is-not-happy-with-fed-rate-hikes-nomura-201808221229?utm_source=tradingview&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=62d504f0-ae31-4d3d-bba5-11fb479d51ae

Quote by Richard Koo:
“I believe the president’s comments will actually force the Fed to raise rates (https://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/rates) as scheduled in order to demonstrate its independence.”

So it feels like the more it rises because of trump, the more we should short eurUSD and even keep during the FOMC with tigher stops and wide TP and expec that finnaly Trump talks will be negated and sudden rise of USD will happen.
  • #1,108
  • Aug 22, 2018 7:49am Aug 22, 2018 7:49am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
plan terribly not working by fundamentals. It is close to SL, and soon will be CAD news. I now think that its not worth to close before news as planned because it near SL and near resistance of august 8 high anyway, if I news move price up, then it will loose just a little. If there is some mirracle and price is moved down, I could get back much more. And still I think expectations are that FED will raise rates and ignoer Trump. I think if I close, then price will start to move down I could be an indicator Update: cad Retail Sales...
you are now entering the counter-trend phase...It has driven many before you mad...
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,109
  • Aug 22, 2018 9:27am Aug 22, 2018 9:27am
Again weird things: Existing Home Sales worse for USD but past 1.5 hours eurusd falls. Maybe now sicem 3.5 hours left to FOMC - it dollar starts to rise because of expecting FOMC to tell some hawkish news?
  • #1,110
  • Aug 23, 2018 2:52am Aug 23, 2018 2:52am
Both types/factors of trading are important and every trader have to work on them. Yes, I think the same as fundamental knowledge is much much important than the technical. Technical aspect is the later part and fundamental aspect is initial part. So, you cannot achieve later without intial!
  • #1,111
  • Aug 23, 2018 3:24am Aug 23, 2018 3:24am
yesterday ended terribly, probably biggest loss so far from fundamental analisis, like 1.6 % which caused loss of confidence in my skill. Now I am reducing my max risk of 1% of capital for trading, because otherwise if I continue like that, I will quickly loose.

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But yesterday opened small position after FOMC, and made some profit, closed before PMI news when I notieced that price starts to move up. Small opened because wanted to give time and see how market reacts. Plus those PMI forecasts could drive price higher.

Just released PMI news, so overall looks slightlty worse than expected for eur
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So opened short positions and plan to close before ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts or hit TP. If it is close to SL, then probably no need to close during news and hope that for euro will be bad.

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So just after opening positions, it does not go to oposite side, which looks good for the start, but it still can, like I opened yesterday and it went at first good, then to oposite.

Btw I have noticed myfxbook long poistions increased to 45 % from like 36 %, so good sign also for shorting eur because they do the oposite often, unless its a ranging market - I see they buy when price looks low sell when high. THis works in ranging market but does not work in trending.
  • #1,112
  • Edited 5:54am Aug 23, 2018 5:18am | Edited 5:54am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
yesterday ended terribly, probably biggest loss so far from fundamental analisis, like 1.6 % which caused loss of confidence in my skill. Now I am reducing my max risk of 1% of capital for trading, because otherwise if I continue like that, I will quickly loose. {image} But yesterday opened small position after FOMC, and made some profit, closed before PMI news when I notieced that price starts to move up. Small opened because wanted to give time and see how market reacts. Plus those PMI forecasts could drive price higher. Just released PMI news,...
searching for oportunities to close. At first went so well, and later bad, even breakse the resistance levels :/

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Closed all. Looked at one moment that trend in minute chart starts reverse, but again goes up. I cant understand what is going on.

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Only I see bulish pinbars in hourly chart:
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maybe once I see this, I should close as soon as possible and wait another hour for candle to form and show what is happening. SHould investigate over long run if those bullish pinbars really most often mean price go up.
  • #1,113
  • Aug 23, 2018 12:15pm Aug 23, 2018 12:15pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} searching for oportunities to close. At first went so well, and later bad, even breakse the resistance levels :/ {image} Closed all. Looked at one moment that trend in minute chart starts reverse, but again goes up. I cant understand what is going on. {image} Only I see bulish pinbars in hourly chart: {image} maybe once I see this, I should close as soon as possible and wait another hour for candle to form and show what is happening. SHould investigate over long run if those bullish pinbars really most often mean price go up.
may very well go back down now...
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,114
  • Aug 23, 2018 1:55pm Aug 23, 2018 1:55pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} may very well go back down now...
of course, because I closed trades.

But seriously why it went down fundamentally?
  • #1,115
  • Aug 23, 2018 2:16pm Aug 23, 2018 2:16pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
{quote} of course, because I closed trades. But seriously why it went down fundamentally?
USD fundamentals are better than the Euro at this point. Also, the recent rallies of Trump slamming the Fed is unwinding as Fed Officials shunning Trump about being independent from Politics.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,116
  • Aug 23, 2018 3:29pm Aug 23, 2018 3:29pm
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} USD fundamentals are better than the Euro at this point. Also, the recent rallies of Trump slamming the Fed is unwinding as Fed Officials shunning Trump about being independent from Politics.
but it did not change since the morning then. I saw some low news released bad for usd. But that means I closed too early. And I am not sure can I still open now - 1.15 can be support. But on the other hand, it might not hold up since it showed that it can be broken with current news. Just now interesting how high the price can pullback.

Ok, open 0.5 % of capital, SL - above yesterday high. Close before tomorrow Core Durable Goods Orders m/m which forecast is better than previous.

THere is another 0.5 % remaining, thinking what to do with it. Maybe some sell stop order or sell limit. Maybe tomorrow will decide.
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  • #1,117
  • Aug 23, 2018 4:09pm Aug 23, 2018 4:09pm
Quoting Samson85
{quote} My USD/Try is still in a tiny bit of profit but it's the weakness of TRY holding it up. {image}
Still in the trade now and it's been a week. Hoping for a dollar push up on this.
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  • #1,118
  • Aug 24, 2018 1:10am Aug 24, 2018 1:10am
I am thinking about trade wars, how they affect. If the tariffs are raised, then products become more expensive. Products become more expense = inflation. Inflation rises, interest rates also have to rise.

So trade war with china is good for dollar.

Is that correct?
  • #1,119
  • Aug 24, 2018 4:00am Aug 24, 2018 4:00am
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
I am thinking about trade wars, how they affect. If the tariffs are raised, then products become more expensive. Products become more expense = inflation. Inflation rises, interest rates also have to rise. So trade war with china is good for dollar. Is that correct?
The main reason for dollar strength to kick back in is that only US are hiking rates hence dollar strength this year.
  • #1,120
  • Edited 8:16am Aug 24, 2018 4:48am | Edited 8:16am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} The main reason for dollar strength to kick back in is that only US are hiking rates hence dollar strength this year.
if thats the case, maybe there is no need to think much, just enjoy the pullback and short eurusd big whil there is a pullback?

THere are still bit more retail traders shorting than longing on myfxbook - 56 % short at the moment which is not perfect. Probably sometimes even retial traders are right.


Migth be that based on the news, short was wrong now, at least until the durable goods orders release. Price started to rise, but I thought core durable goods forecast should drag down.

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It is marked as red, and durable goods orders is marked orange. Red forecast better than previous. But not as much. And orange is worse than previoous by 1.5 %. So it might be dragging now up. But now I guess its too late to close when being closer to SL , left like 30 %

In fxstreet they are marked as equal volatility and the forecast is bit differetent, but still in favor for usd weakening:

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Now since main fundamentals are better for USD, could maybe use this new for entering new shorts.


Just noticed this: https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=811878 Powell's big Jackson Hole speech could have a dovish surprise - new is released 15 hours ago. So all those 15 hours maybe all are waiting for dowish surprise and raising eurusd ?
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