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Fundamental Trading Always beats Technical Trading 100%

  • #1,081
  • Edited 2:23am Aug 17, 2018 1:50am | Edited 2:23am
Quoting Samson85
Trade updates: EUR/USD - entered another short this morning because we had a euro spike based on news that America is pressuring China. Simple rule is sell on the highs as fundamentally eur will go down along with cable. In tempoerorary drawdown. USDTRY is tricky but still in the balance. Bitcoin is lovely and this trade is up more than 350 points. {image} {image} {image}

Just closed usd/try!!!

Reason being is that the selling for profit taken looks like it's stopped so I will be entering a long soon
  • #1,082
  • Aug 17, 2018 2:27am Aug 17, 2018 2:27am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Just closed usd/try!!! Reason being is that the selling for profit taken looks like it's stopped so I will be entering a long soon
I'm long now as news around Turkey is not the best.
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  • #1,083
  • Aug 17, 2018 2:33am Aug 17, 2018 2:33am
shorting eurusd after cpi release did not give surprises. also H1 bearish candle after eur current account releas. Will try to catch spikes. Sl after this weeks high, hoping to not get stopped out. Reason USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment better than previous forecast and generally everybody bearish on euro Plan to clsoe before USD release in few hours.

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  • #1,084
  • Aug 17, 2018 2:41am Aug 17, 2018 2:41am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I'm long now as news around Turkey is not the best. {image}

News flow:

The TRY has seen some selling pressure in recent trade with markets mindful of recent comments by US President Trump, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and potential rating agency action today
Analysis at 10:32
Despite measures taken by the Turkish administration this week (whilst the central bank refrains from hiking rates), the TRY has seen a bout of weakness in recent trade with markets potential mindful of weekend risks for the currency given recent comments from Trump and Mnuchin.
Recap: US President Trump stated that Turkey has taken advantage of US for many years and are now holding US pastor, while he added the US will not pay anything for the release an innocent man but are cutting back on Turkey. There were also prior comments from US President Trump that Turkey has not turned out to be a great friend, while US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin commented that more sanctions are prepared for Turkey if Pastor Brunson is not released.
Furthermore, S&P are due to assess Turkey's credit rating tonight which naturally poses a risk to the Turkish outlook
The recent TRY weakness has prompted a bout of risk aversion into other markets with stocks seeing a bout of weakness and USTs at highs with traders mindful of the scope of broader-based market moves that Turkey have prompted over the past week.
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  • #1,085
  • Aug 17, 2018 2:42am Aug 17, 2018 2:42am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} I'm long now as news around Turkey is not the best. {image}
Which broker are you using. My brokers xm, hotforex has disabled Turkish lira @samson85
"Our favorite holding period is forever." Warren Buffett
  • #1,086
  • Aug 17, 2018 5:41am Aug 17, 2018 5:41am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} News flow: The TRY has seen some selling pressure in recent trade with markets mindful of recent comments by US President Trump, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and potential rating agency action today Analysis at 10:32 Despite measures taken by the Turkish administration this week (whilst the central bank refrains from hiking rates), the TRY has seen a bout of weakness in recent trade with markets potential mindful of weekend risks for the currency given recent comments from Trump and Mnuchin. Recap: US President Trump stated that Turkey has...
I am concerned holding any positions over the weekend regarding the Lira.. So many things can happen. If they release the pastor... Lira probably soaring come Monday... or the president can dig deep and do it his way... Lira tanks...
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,087
  • Aug 17, 2018 5:44am Aug 17, 2018 5:44am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} I am concerned holding any positions over the weekend regarding the Lira.. So many things can happen. If they release the pastor... Lira probably soaring come Monday... or the president can dig deep and do it his way... Lira tanks...
Tricky one that is but my risk is okay for a loss.

Just traded CPI 3% VS 2.5% FOR CAD CPI. Massive beat
  • #1,088
  • Aug 17, 2018 6:21am Aug 17, 2018 6:21am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Tricky one that is but my risk is okay for a loss. Just traded CPI 3% VS 2.5% FOR CAD CPI. Massive beat
for sure more rate hikes for the BOC is coming and fast!
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,089
  • Aug 17, 2018 6:56am Aug 17, 2018 6:56am
wow this is sick. EURUSD jumped so highly and did not want to get down. And the time of jump is same when CAD inflation had been released better than expected. I could not imaging that CAD could move eur price so much. Lost today, but new thing learned - I can trade eur using cad news also this is so unexpeded, even my coach did not tell that things like CAD can move eur so much.

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vertical line when cad cpi was released:
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If I knew that CAD is so important - before news price moved nicely in my direction and could have taken nice profit before release.
  • #1,090
  • Aug 18, 2018 2:52pm Aug 18, 2018 2:52pm
TalkingFx is not realtime - it can be delayed 20 or 30 seconds

Randsquawk is real-time

a 5 second delay is too slow
  • #1,091
  • Aug 19, 2018 9:01pm Aug 19, 2018 9:01pm
Bank trades for the week:



Nordea says it still recommends buying dips on EUR/SEK and also states to sell rallies above 0.9000 in EUR/GBP


Barclays says its trade of the week is short AUD/USD with a target of 0.7170 and stop at 0.7390
  • #1,092
  • Aug 20, 2018 3:18pm Aug 20, 2018 3:18pm
Quoting Samson85
Trade updates: EUR/USD - entered another short this morning because we had a euro spike based on news that America is pressuring China. Simple rule is sell on the highs as fundamentally eur will go down along with cable. In tempoerorary drawdown. USDTRY is tricky but still in the balance. Bitcoin is lovely and this trade is up more than 350 points. {image} {image} {image}
Just closed bitcoin for a profit as it did a deep pull back.

Still in eur/USD and usd/try.
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  • #1,093
  • Aug 20, 2018 9:51pm Aug 20, 2018 9:51pm
Quoting Samson85
Trade updates: EUR/USD - entered another short this morning because we had a euro spike based on news that America is pressuring China. Simple rule is sell on the highs as fundamentally eur will go down along with cable. In tempoerorary drawdown. USDTRY is tricky but still in the balance. Bitcoin is lovely and this trade is up more than 350 points. {image} {image} {image}
Woke up to see I had been stopped out on Euro. Trumps complaints about Powell raising rates has really pushed the euro and pound up. Only time will tell whether this is just sentiment or a complete reversal. There was reverse head and shoulders in place on EUR/USD which did told the technical story about buyers being in control

My only trade that remains in play is USD/TRY
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  • #1,094
  • Aug 20, 2018 10:31pm Aug 20, 2018 10:31pm
voke up at night to go to toiled and see that my sell limit at 1.1510 was opened and and with scary move quickly rising. By minute chart it is so quick up, that it looks like there were lot of buy stop orders - at that time I do not see any news released.

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Maybe now GBP also is helping to move price up for eur Public Sector Net Borrowing with good forecast.
I like that at least there is bearish rejection in hourly chart which so far is not broken, but buyers are attacking it looks like:

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  • #1,095
  • Edited 10:55pm Aug 20, 2018 10:39pm | Edited 10:55pm
now thinking maybe thursday eur PMI good forecasts for eur are already driving price up, and my shorts are bad even when wednesday Existing Home Sales USD and CAD Core Retail Sales m/m should drive price down, those might be not so strong?


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fxstreet shows CAD retails sales forecast is better than previous.

Hawkish expectation on FOMC minutes:
Quote
“In the evening, the FOMC meeting minutes will be published. At the most recent meeting the FOMC raised its description of the economy from “solid” to ”strong”,
Quote
laying the groundwork for further rate hikes in September and December. We expect the FOMC minutes to solidify this message.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/markets-what-is-most-important-in-the-week-ahead-nordea-markets-201808201230

Quote
We expect the PMI releases to back our story that US momentum will drop quicker than the European.”
this does not help euro fall.
  • #1,096
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:45pm Aug 20, 2018 11:45pm
Quoting Mzwandile93
I think NZDUSD will be bullish for the next 12 trading days.(USD will be weak against NZD) {image}
NZDUSD gone bullish as I thought.
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Lord Forex
  • #1,097
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:52pm Aug 20, 2018 11:52pm
Quoting Mzwandile93
{quote} NZDUSD gone bullish as I thought. {image}
There is nothing like always or obvious in Forex. But it’s true, most f the time; fundamental events change the direction.
  • #1,098
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:53pm Aug 20, 2018 11:53pm
Quoting Mzwandile93
{quote} NZDUSD gone bullish as I thought. {image}
On the 29th I'll do another fundamentals analysis and tell you which direction I think it's going.
Lord Forex
  • #1,099
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:58pm Aug 20, 2018 11:58pm
Yes and no, best trader I know, (a millonaire), trades only tech. day in day out, pauses at news, then starts again, 5 minutes charts.His momentum strategy will take him with the flow.
Still,if you found your edge, good on you, but beware of "100%" claims...there are many outstanding tech. traders, some make outreageous profits.
And tons of news traders that loose consistently.
  • #1,100
  • Aug 21, 2018 11:02am Aug 21, 2018 11:02am
Trump's criticism of the Fed's for rate hikes hammering the USD. Although, I don't think his comments matter in the long run as the Fed is to continue to be independent of politics, it does not affect the long term trend of the USD as bullish. In the meantime... the USD probably has some legs from here. The CAD has also cooled, nothing fundamentally changed.. An technical pullback as rate hikes still on track for the BOC.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
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