Outcome Is Random

Treat all trades equally. Recognize that the outcome is random and is not relevant to your immediate performance.
This belief is mentioned between successful traders all the time, but what does it mean exactly?

Treat all trades equally.

Where is this coming from?
To explain this lets talk about coin flipping.
For perfectly weighted coin, the probability that it is going to flip on head or tail is 50/50. The probability that it's going to flip on head is 50%, probability that it's going to flip on head two times in a row is 25%, for three times in a row it's 12.5%.
So, if we just flipped head on the coin, what is the probability that next will be tail? You would say 75%. But if you do not consider previous coin flip you would say 50% even though there was a coin flip before. Treat all trades equally would suggest exactly this , not to consider previous trade when taking the next one.
But why?
Well, here is the math.
Probability in coin flips that there will be two heads in a row is 25%. So lets think that we can use this as edge and prove wrong. This means that there is 75% chance that tail side will be flipped after flipping head side. In 1000 coin flip sample. we will have 500 opportunities, each with 75% probability. This means that we will win in 375 of those opportunities. This means that 125 times head side will be flipped again and we will lose. This means that possibility of flipping heads two times in a row is 12.5% when actually it should be 25%. We have CONTRADICTION! This means that we can't look at previous coin flip to predict the next one, the chance is still 50/50.
That's why you should treat all trades equally

Recognize that the outcome is random and is not relevant to your immediate performance.

If you can't predict next coin flip when knowing the previous one it means that outcome is random.

Hope that this was useful for at least one person.
Cheers and have many green PIPs with a touch of red ones!

Edit: I have stopped following this thread, if you have any questions send me a message.

The outcome its random because they are not connected (previous outcome doesnt weight on the next one) True

Yes.. Equally as in you MUST place the trades with the exact same rules/setup/formation (whatever you use) EVERY SINGLE TIME because those EXACT conditions are what they giving you more than 50/50 chance to win !! if you enter the market in a different way every time then.. you would have no idea wth its going to happen


in trading you can predict the outcome % (more than 50/50) if you enter THE SAME WAY every time; you are now measuring the actual trading conditions where you place a trade and where it will go (up/down) and for how long (the actual target); if they give you a consisten/predictable results then you have a good setup to take every time it shows, thats what "trading strategy/system" are trying to give you (in theory)

Price may move up or down in any moment, in or against your favour. Dont take it personally if this results in a loss, as price could just as have easily gone in the other direction and an opposing direction interpretation of a chart will have been possible anyway.

Exactly.
Thank you for explaining this from trading perspective.
If I may add, remember that you are not trading only next trade, but trading a decent sample size. Consistency and predictability comes up only over many trades. Also even if you have a system that gives you an edge you still won't be able to predict outcome of next trade.

Yes, indeed.
Every moment in market is unique thus unpredictable. Uncertainty on what's going to happen next is something that everyone needs to understand.

True, maybe its not the best word.. i think is "probability" a better way to describe it: a higher % of something more "predictable" to happen instead of a 50/50 chance; thats when you enter the market, when you have a HIGH % chance to win than "random"