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Searching for market changes to keep EA current

  • #21
  • Edited 5:58am Aug 7, 2018 5:22am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting Mourad
{quote} I'm still not a winner, I myself have my demons to fight against. I learnt coding, only to find out that I can't find a good system even if it needs development.
The type of Eas that work in forex are Grid EAS .Design yourself a grid EA and trade it with interest rates expectations.

Search on internet for Grid trading very viable method of automated trading & EURUSD Currency grid trading like a pro.

I have made grid eas for forex that are profitable in the long term.These are the only types of EAS that produce returns.
  • #22
  • Aug 7, 2018 5:42am Aug 7, 2018 5:42am
Quoting Mourad
{quote} I'm still not a winner, I myself have my demons to fight against. I learnt coding, only to find out that I can't find a good system even if it needs development. I trade horizontal lines, all types of them, and my worst nightmare is when price keeps fluctuating around this line. I tried to recover losses by adding the lost pips to the next trade TP, only to end up with a trade that has a huge target that will never be achieved. Tried to add losses to the next trade in terms of lots to keep TP pips the same, yet if I had 2 consecutive losing...
Manual trading is the best way to learn. Learn to negotiate PA and different systems. It takes time and patients, stick with it
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #23
  • Aug 7, 2018 5:53am Aug 7, 2018 5:53am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Manual trading is the best way to learn. Learn to negotiate PA and different systems. It takes time and patients, stick with it
95 % of manual traders lose at forex, all the forums have substantial number of 95% lose threads, the number is more likely to be 99% of manual traders will lose, due to psychology .He is better off making an EA to trade for him.
  • #24
  • Aug 7, 2018 6:06am Aug 7, 2018 6:06am
Quoting loozers
{quote} The type of Eas that work in forex are Grid EAS .Design yourself a grid EA and trade it with interest rates expectations. Search on internet for Grid trading very viable method of automated trading & EURUSD Currency grid trading like a pro. I have made grid eas for forex that are profitable in the long term.These are the only types of EAS that produce returns.

Easier said than done friend...
  • #25
  • Aug 7, 2018 6:17am Aug 7, 2018 6:17am
Quoting Mourad
{quote} Easier said than done friend...

You already found out early ,that psychology is very important. Adding to losing positions, overriding trading systems etc are only 2 of the 100 demons of psychology inside you.You don't want the other 98 demons of manual trading.

I run profitable grid & random entry EAS on forex. The following grid EA is on indices, I can use it for forex.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax grid.jpg Size: 297 KB
  • #26
  • Edited 9:49am Aug 7, 2018 6:29am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Thanks for the posts. Yes, these are things I am looking for. For the EA to be scripted this way it needs to read its information from a source ie a ATR indicator, perhaps a stoch. and maybe a MA or 2 with a cross over. It's what I am searching for in this thread to see if people will share how they perceive market shifts that happen perhaps 2-3 times year, sometimes more and others less. An ATR on less days is easier to see changes, though yes, it can be more volatile; but it does also trend.
Hi Matts

The way I test if a strategy needs to be turned off or on is based on it's long term performance statistics using the Total Return to Drawdown ratio of the strategy or the MAR ratio (CAGR/Max Draw).

There are two aspects at play here. The long term statistics are used to ensure strategy robustness over a broad variety of different market conditions but you also need an adaptive measure to bring in new strategies that respond to more recent market conditions.

The long term back test provides these statistics that can be used as benchmarks to guide you in determining whether or not your strategy is working well and also as benchmarks to guide you in determining new strategies that exceed these benchmark requirements that can be included in the portfolio.

For example the table below highlights a portfolio comprising 22 different strategies today (EA's).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Strategy performance.PNG Size: 64 KB


Let's assume that I use a benchmark of a 0.58 MAR ratio as a basis to decide which strategies to turn off or keep on which effectively is an annual return that is half the size of it's drawdown. I also use these benchmarks to bring new strategies that are found through testing into the portfolio that exceed them.

When performance over time of each strategy falls below this benchmark, the strategies are highlighted (eg. the two highlighted strategies in the "MAR rotate' column) and then I simply turn them off and allow the rest of the strategies to chug along. These are all data mined solutions...however the principle is that the portfolio is continuously added to over time with new EA's that are data mined from more recent data as the walk forward progresses. This way the portfolio adapts over time and the weak strats are eliminated and the strong strats survive. A bit like 'Natural selection in action'. When global market conditions change the portfolio can quickly shrink in size but this serves to protect your capital base. When conditions are favorable for extended periods of time, the portfolio grows and you rake it in during these more stable conditions.

If you want to progressively improve portfolio performance over time then progressively raise the benchmarks to weed out the stronger strats and ditch the weaker ones which allows you to achieve better risk-weighted returns that assists in accelerating your returns through compounding.

I hope this helps :-)
  • #27
  • Aug 7, 2018 6:49am Aug 7, 2018 6:49am
Quoting Mourad
{quote} I'm still not a winner, I myself have my demons to fight against. I learnt coding, only to find out that I can't find a good system even if it needs development. I trade horizontal lines, all types of them, and my worst nightmare is when price keeps fluctuating around this line. I tried to recover losses by adding the lost pips to the next trade TP, only to end up with a trade that has a huge target that will never be achieved. Tried to add losses to the next trade in terms of lots to keep TP pips the same, yet if I had 2 consecutive losing...
Yeah a successful approach is a basket of things. It takes time to get everything line up. The key to system development lies not so much in the particular strategy as it is in recognizing which environment it works under. That's the secret sauce.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #28
  • Aug 7, 2018 6:50am Aug 7, 2018 6:50am
What if markets remain illogical or regularly become illogical , they start giving bigger consecutive losses or wins , or volatility dies like 2007?
  • #29
  • Aug 7, 2018 6:54am Aug 7, 2018 6:54am
Quoting Rennaissance
{quote} Yeah a successful approach is a basket of things. It takes time to get everything line up. The key to system development lies not so much in the particular strategy as it is in recognizing which environment it works under. That's the secret sauce.

The secret is finding appropriate method to work profitably in all the environments, one which is suited to the instrument behavior.
  • #30
  • Aug 7, 2018 8:34am Aug 7, 2018 8:34am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hi Matts The way I test if a strategy needs to be turned off or on is based on it's long term performance statistics using the Total Return to Drawdown ratio of the strategy or the MAR ratio (CAGR/Max Draw). There are two aspects at play here. The long term statistics are used to ensure strategy robustness over a broad variety of different market conditions but you also need an adaptive measure to bring in new strategies that respond to more recent market conditions. The long term back test provides these statistics that can be used as benchmarks...
Awesome mate, thank you. You have got the ol' cogs up top grinding. I have different strategies for different conditions but being unable to identify those conditions. Instead I let the numbers do the work for me. This will be easily accomplished and my fingers are already itching make a new spreadsheet. I need time to process and plan but I feel the wall can be climbed, no doubt others will arise but one hurdle at time. I will report back on progress. Again thank you.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #31
  • Last Post: Aug 7, 2018 8:46am Aug 7, 2018 8:46am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Awesome mate, thank you. You have got the ol' cogs up top grinding. I have different strategies for different conditions but being unable to identify those conditions. Instead I let the numbers do the work for me. This will be easily accomplished and my fingers are already itching make a new spreadsheet. I need time to process and plan but I feel the wall can be climbed, no doubt others will arise but one hurdle at time. I will report back on progress. Again thank you.
Cheers mate :-)
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