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Exotics (USD/TRY, USD/ZAR, USD/MXN, and others)

  • #41
  • Aug 6, 2018 9:51am Aug 6, 2018 9:51am
Turkish Central Bank has decreased fx reserve requirement for banks..that has caused last hour down spike to 5.15 probably together with USD index drop..probably it will cause limited effect..

https://www.bloomberght.com/haberler...t-siniri-dustu
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #42
  • Aug 6, 2018 10:01am Aug 6, 2018 10:01am
Well, this could get ugly.
Newsweek working with Gülenists to topple Erdoğan - pro-gov't columnist
  • #43
  • Edited 12:42pm Aug 6, 2018 11:43am | Edited 12:42pm
UsdTry is 5.28..it looks, sky is limit..

Edit: these Iran sanctions are not good also for lira since oil import from there
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...ble-iran-deal/
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #44
  • Aug 6, 2018 1:16pm Aug 6, 2018 1:16pm
This pair move very good since october 2017.
What happened in Turkey?
Turkish lira falling deep.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #45
  • Aug 6, 2018 1:19pm Aug 6, 2018 1:19pm
Central Bank steps in to change reserves rules as currency tumbles
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46
  • Aug 6, 2018 1:43pm Aug 6, 2018 1:43pm
See ya tomorrow before Frankfurt ! Should be good.
  • #47
  • Edited 8:12pm Aug 6, 2018 2:13pm | Edited 8:12pm
Quoting DJsignals
This pair move very good since october 2017. What happened in Turkey? Turkish lira falling deep. {image}
1- there is a worry about Central Bank independence since it is not increasing interest rate sufficiently according to higher inflation..this become very apparent since April 2018..together with rising usd index from april to june usdtry increased from 3.90 to 4.90..also elections in june has caused some uncertainty and increase in fx..then some consolidation period..

https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...-idUSL5N1UJ3DO

2- dovish central bank policy has continued in july 24th meeting of CB..and also recent tension with US has caused another up movement from 4.80s to 5.28 now..probably will go higher due to ongoing political issues..

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/01/w...ey-pastor.html

There are another reasons also..but these 2 issue above are most important ones..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #48
  • Aug 6, 2018 2:19pm Aug 6, 2018 2:19pm
Quoting blackwinter
{quote} 1- there is a worry about Central Bank independence since it is not increasing interest rate sufficiently according to higher inflation..this become very apparent since April 2018..together with rising usd index from april to june usdtry increased from 3.90 to 4.90..also elections in june has caused some uncertainty and increase in fx..then some consolidation period.. https://turkey.theglobepost.com/cent...ira-plummeted/ https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...-idUSL5N1UJ3DO...
Very good point.
  • #49
  • Aug 6, 2018 2:30pm Aug 6, 2018 2:30pm
Quoting DJsignals
{quote} Very good point.
CB may increase interest rate very soon with extraordinary meeting..if not 5.50 will be seen this week probably..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #50
  • Aug 6, 2018 2:38pm Aug 6, 2018 2:38pm
Quoting DJsignals
{quote} Very good point.
this pair not increasing since 2017 please check it out since 2002 , and also look at who in governmet from this date till now ( 2002-2018) u will got it what ım talking about
  • #51
  • Edited 8:15pm Aug 6, 2018 3:07pm | Edited 8:15pm
Quoting Aussi
Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro 'survives drone assassination attempt' just on news
I doubt that ....
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #52
  • Aug 6, 2018 3:45pm Aug 6, 2018 3:45pm
Quoting blackwinter
UsdTry is 5.28..it looks, sky is limit.. Edit: these Iran sanctions are not good also for lira since oil import from there https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings...ble-iran-deal/
Just seen 5.42 in usdtry..lets see when central bank increase rates..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #53
  • Aug 6, 2018 5:50pm Aug 6, 2018 5:50pm
"Turkish diplomatic sources tell media that US and Turkey reached a preliminary understanding on Brunson case. A Turkish delegation will visit Washington this week"

https://mobile.twitter.com/ragipsoyl...7532854274?p=v
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #54
  • Aug 6, 2018 7:31pm Aug 6, 2018 7:31pm
Sold small amount of usdzar ard. 13.43..see how
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #55
  • Aug 7, 2018 1:00am Aug 7, 2018 1:00am
Reuters
Okay. The second one? I'm just going to say it: hahaha Probably just a meeting of rhetoric, but still...
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  • #56
  • Edited 1:38am Aug 7, 2018 1:25am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting blackwinter
Sold small amount of usdzar ard. 13.43..see how {image}
Closed with some profit..today looks sell day for usdzar..i may sell intraday highs..
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #57
  • Aug 7, 2018 1:27am Aug 7, 2018 1:27am
Quoting 2dollardog
Reuters Okay. The second one? I'm just going to say it: hahaha Probably just a meeting of rhetoric, but still... {image} {image}
This meeting news has supported well lira from last midnight..see what happen this time..they are taking time..hope some agreement happen this time..better for all
make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #58
  • Aug 7, 2018 1:36am Aug 7, 2018 1:36am
Charts of UsdMxn..monthly, weekly, daily, 4h and hourly..

All looks bearish..

I m in watching mode in this pair..not have experience before..

Note:
Turquoise line is 50 MAs (moving average)
Orange line is 100 MAs
Green line is 200 MAs
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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make your own analysis and decisions..just giving some perspective..
  • #59
  • Aug 7, 2018 2:13am Aug 7, 2018 2:13am
USDTRY

You were right about Iranian influence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #60
  • Aug 7, 2018 2:23am Aug 7, 2018 2:23am
Broker increased the spread to 4x - 6x (dynamic).
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