Dukascopy Market and Economic Research

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





With very few important events in the economic calendar, the past week saw most of the observed currency indexes sway in the ±0.50% range.

The two exceptions were the Euro’s and the Loonie’s measures, which showed moderate directional movement and finished the period on the opposite sides of the baseline.



As was implied by the behavior of the currency indexes, the past week saw little turbulence in the observed currency pairs.

While all reported volatility medians were below 0.030%, they did serve to divide the currencies into extremely tranquil and moderately turbulent. The first group was comprised of the Euro, the Pound, the Franc, and the Loonie, which posted the values of 0.023-0.025%, and the second included the Greenback, the Yen, the Aussie, and the Kiwi with the readings of 0.028-0.029%.



As many of the moves observed during the week were shared by several currency indexes, the period was marked by generally noteworthy developments in the bonds between the examined currency pairs.

Half of the selected combinations described the Pound’s bonds with its peers, with four of them containing GBP/USD.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The past period saw both sharp fluctuations and persistent directional movements, with six out of eight observed currency indexes crossing the ±0.50% lines.

Notably, most if the action took place in the depreciation area.

The worst results were reported by the Euro’s, the Kiwi’s, and the Pound’s indexes, while the best performer for the second consecutive week was the CAD Index.



Despite some major moves seen in the currency indexes, the overall turbulence of the observed instruments in the past period remained subdued.

The highest volatility medians reached only 0.026% and were reported by the Yen, the Aussie, and the Kiwi.

The lowest value stood at 0.021% and was posted by the Euro.



Changes in the bonds between the observed currency pairs turned more moderate after two weeks of relatively major developments, with only six of the ten selected combinations reporting greater-than-0.50-points shifts between the weekly and monthly correlation medians.

Notably, most of these combinations described the relationship between the Greenback, the European currencies, and the safe-havens.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The observed currency indexes displayed many intervals of stagnation in the past week, but nevertheless all experienced moves that took them outside the ±0.50% range.

Moreover, the period’s last day saw the majority of the measures cross beyond the ±1.00% lines.



While Friday’s falls and surges made for an extremely volatile day, the overall period’s turbulence was subdued, with the observed volatility medians ranging from 0.022% for the Euro to 0.028% for the Kiwi.



The majority of the week’s correlations, selected as the most changed compared to the monthly levels, reflected the market’s sensitivity to sentiment, which governed the currency indexes’ movements throughout most of the period.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The Loonie’s measure was one of the most prominent ones in the past period as it experienced both the longest rally and the sharpest downfall.

The Asia-Pacific indexes were definitely the most noticeable ones during the week, as the Yen’s and the Aussie’s gauges dominated in the negative area throughout most of the period, while the NZD Index managed to snatch the leading position from the Loonie’s measure at the very end of Friday’s trading.



Multiple rallies and downfalls observed in the currency indexes translated into relative high volatility, with all of the observed median values standing above 0.030% for the first time since the end of June.



All of the correlation combinations selected for the period pointed at the strengthening of the bonds between the associated currencies, and all served to illustrate the effect the Turkish Lira’s downslide had on the market. Thus all of the combinations showed the relationships between the Greenback and the Yen on one side, and the Euro, the Pound, and the Antipodeans on the other

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The observed currency indexes were notably active during the past week, with the Kiwi’s measure being the only one to remain within the ±0.50% range.
The USD Index posted its second weekly loss in a row, this time spending the whole period below the baseline, while the Yen’s gauge reported its greatest weekly loss since early March.
Meanwhile, the European currencies were the ones to dominate the appreciation area.



After the relatively turbulent previous period the observed volatility readings returned to the generally subdued levels of the past month.
Volatility medians split the majors into two groups, with the Europeans and the Loonie posting the values of 0.024-0.025%, and the Asia-Pacific currencies and the US Dollar reporting median turbulence of 0.027-0.029%.



The US Dollar’s weakness seemed to be the main driver of the developments in the correlation combinations selected for the period.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The past week saw solid activity among the observed currencies, with both persistent trends and sharp moves taking some of the indexes out of the ±1.00% range.



The market’s turbulence still remained largely subdued, though the observed median volatility readings edged closer to the normal historical level of 0.030%. The largest medians of 0.030-0.031% were reported by the Australian Dollar and the Yen, while the European currencies still posted subdued values.



Most of the correlations selected for the period were Pound-related.

Highlights of the latest Market Research release.
Full research available here.





The movements of the observed currency indexes were notably less directed than in the previous period, but the sharp changes still managed to take all of the measures beyond the ±0.50% range.



The market’s turbulence edged up from the subdued levels it held on in the two previous periods. The Euro, the Franc, the Loonie, and the US Dollar still posted below-0.030% volatility medians, but the Pound and the Antipodeans reported solid median turbulence levels.



Most of the correlation combinations selected for the period indicated weakening of the bonds from elevated monthly levels to or even below more moderate half-yearly readings.

Market overview for September 10 - September 14 2018: The market’s volatility falls back from the previous period’s uptick. The JPY Index posts its year’s greatest weekly loss, the Pound’s measure reports gains for the fourth week in a row. The greatest changes in correlation distributions extend the patterns seen on the 4-week basis.
Full research available here.





All of the observed indexes opened the week near the previous period’s closing levels and, for the most part, remained relatively flat. Nevertheless, the strong moves, however scarce, still managed to take most of the measure outside of the ±0.50% range.



The market’s turbulence fell back from the previous period’s uptick, with the reported volatility medians dividing the observed currencies into two groups. Thus the Euro, the Swiss Franc, the US and the Canadian Dollars were the more tranquil ones with the readings of 0.024-0.026%, while the Pound and the Asia-Pacific currencies posted moderate values of 0.029-0.031%.



The greatest changes in correlation distributions observed in the past week served to extend the patterns seen on the 4-week basis and take the bond strength measure further away from the long-term norm and into the elevated territory.

Market overview for September 17 - September 21 2018: The market’s volatility edges up, but remain in line with the past month’s levels. The Yen’s and the US Dollar’s measures are the main losers, Brexit developments send the GBP Index tumbling after a month of growth, new US tariffs have a limited impact, the Kiwi’s gauge become the leader after a better-than-expected GDP release.
Full research available here.





The past week saw continuation of many of the previous period’s pattern, with the Yen’s and the Dollar’s indexes leading in the negative area, the Aussie’s measure resuming its ascent, and the Pound’s gauge being driven by Brexit headlines.



The market’s turbulence edged up in the past week, with most of the observed volatility medians adding around 0.002 pp to their previous readings, though still standing in line with moderate 4W levels. The greatest change was reported by the Swiss Franc’s measure, which grew to stand 0.003 pp above the monthly value, while the highest absolute values were again reported by the Aussie, the Yen, and the Kiwi.



The past week saw little changes in the bonds between the observed currency pairs, with most of the selected combinations containing the Pound’s crosses.

Market overview for September 24 - September 28 2018: The market sees feeble volatility both in terms of median levels and highest peaks. The CAD and GBP Indexes post the greatest September gains, while the Swiss and Japanese safe-havens are the only ones to report MTD losses. Correlations signal extensions of previous patterns.
Full research available here.





The past week proved to be a reversal for half of the observed currency indexes. Thus the previous period’s prominent losers – the Pound’s and the US Dollar’s measures, – spent the week in the appreciation area, while the Euro’s and the Swiss Franc’s gauges erased previous gains.



Turbulence among the observed currencies remained on the relatively feeble levels of the past month. The Pound was the only major to post higher-than-0.030% volatility median, while the US Dollar was the least turbulent currency with the reading of 0.025%.
Peaks marking the sharp moves of the observed indexes were also subdued, with none of them reaching the 0.100% line.



Most of the combinations selected for the period signalled continuation of the bond change patterns seen in the past month, both among the strengthening and the weakening correlations.

Market overview for October 1 – October 5 2018: The market’s median volatility picks up, but the peaks remain moderate. The Pound’s index posts its year’s greatest weekly gain, the Kiwi’s measure reports the greatest weekly loss in 2018 so far. Correlations show little significant changes.
Full research available here.





The past week was notable for extended trends on both sides of the baseline, with the Pound’s, the US Dollar’s, and the Yen’s indexes finishing the period above the +1.00%, and the Antipodeans falling below the -1.50% mark.



In general, the past week was relatively turbulent, with most of the observed currencies posting volatility medians of or above 0.030%. The lowest reading of 0.027% was reported by the US Dollar.
Still, individual peaks that mark sharp moves of the currency indexes remained subdued, with only one of the volatility aggregates reaching above the 0.100% mark.



Correlations selected for the previous period showed very little significant changes in the bonds between the observed currencies. Most of the developments pointed at the weakening of the relationships, with the weekly distributions either easing down from the elevated monthly levels, or dropping below the long-term norm.

Market overview for October 8 – October 12 2018: Currency indexes show numerous abrupt jumps and drops, pushing median volatility levels above the past month’s readings. Weekly correlation distributions show extensions of the monthly patterns.
Full research available here.





The past week was marked by abrupt, zigzagging changes of the observed currency indexes. The general developments were governed non-macroeconomic issues, with the safe-haven Yen’s measure touching the +1.50% line, and the oil-price-dependent Loonie’s gauge nearly breaking below the -1.50% mark.



With all the ups and downs seen in the currency indexes, turbulence picked up above the long-term norm. The only currencies to not raise their weekly volatility medians above the 0.030% level were the US Dollar, the Loonie, and the Euro, while the Yen reported a very high reading of 0.038%.



The period’s correlations showed relatively small changes, with many of the weekly distributions extending the patterns seen in the monthly values.

Market overview for October 15 – October 19 2018: Most of the currency indexes post moderately negative changes, but their development throughout the week remains turbulent, allowing the volatility to hold on solid levels. Most prominent changes are reported by GBP/USD correlations with NZD/USD and AUD/USD.
Full research available here.





The previous period’s zigzagging patterns extended into the past week, but lost the amplitude, with most of the observed currency indexes remaining in the ±0.50% range. In addition, most of the measures posted negative results, with only the New Zealand, the Australian, and the US Dollar’s gauges reporting weekly gains.



The reported median volatility levels lost some points compared to the previous period, but still remained at solid levels, with the Euro posting the lowest reading of 0.027%. Three of the observed currencies – the Pound, the Yen, and the Kiwi, – showed volatility medians above 0.030%.



The most prominent changes in the bonds between the observed instruments were reported by the GBP/USD correlations with the Antipodean pairs.

Market overview for October 22 – October 26 2018: Volatility remains on solid monthly levels. Equity market drives the risk-sensitive currencies, the Pound’s index posts its greatest weekly loss since the beginning of the year. EUR/USD and GBP/USD correlations with NZD/USD and AUD/USD remain subdued.
Full research available here.





As the risk-sensitive indexes were governed by the equity-market-related sentiment, and the European measures were weighted by the political uncertainties, the past week saw the observed measures be affected by both persistent developments and sharp changes. The moves were fairly balanced on both sides of the baseline, with the losers and the gainers being largely restricted by the ±1.50% lines.



In general, volatility observed in the past week remained in line with the monthly readings. As the currency indexes were largely governed by the market’s risk sentiment, median volatility levels reported by the commodity-related currencies, the Yen, and the US Dollar stood above the four-week values. The Pound, in turn, was the only currency to show a decline in median volatility as its turbulence measure edged down from the previous period’s elevated reading.



The past week saw very little changes in the observed significant correlations, with four of the ten selected combinations showing virtually no discrepancies between the weekly and the long-term medians.

Market overview for October 29 – November 2 2018: Median volatility exceeds monthly readings, but the peaks remain subdued. The NZ Dollar’s index posts its greatest weekly gain since the beginning of the year, while the Yen’s measure reports its greatest loss.
Full research available here.





With various reports on Brexit and US-China trade relationship, the past week saw a lot of activity among the safe-havens and risky assets. Thus the start of November was market by rallies of the Antipodean and the Pound’s indexes, while their peers closed the week below the baseline. Notably, the NZD Index posted its greatest weekly gain since the beginning of the year, while the Yen’s measure reported its greatest loss.



All of the observed currencies reported median volatility levels above the monthly readings, with the highest values of 0.036-0.037% being posted by the Yen, the Antipodeans, and the Pound. Still, maximum volatility levels remained subdued, with none of the peaks reaching the 0.100% mark.



The period’s correlation highlighted the synchronicity between the US and the Canadian Dollars, as well as the extremely tight bonds between the Antipodeans.

Market overview for November 5 – November 9 2018: The NZD Index breaks its previous period’s record for the greatest weekly gain, the Aussie’s measure post its fifth consecutive weekly growth. The Yen steps down as the most volatile major. Correlations between GBP/JPY and USD/JPY fall below the significance threshold.
Full research available here.





The Antipodeans continued to dominate in the appreciation area, while most of the other indexes spent the majority of time below the baseline and finished the week in the negative territory.



The market’s turbulence shifted down from the previous period’s elevated levels, with most of the volatility medians laying below the 0.030% mark. For the first time since May, the Yen’s reading was not among the highest ones, which were instead reported by the Aussie, the Pound, and the Kiwi.



Correlations selected for the period showed some considerable shifts in the bonds between the observed currency pairs.

Market overview for November 12 – November 16 2018: The Pound suffers record volatility, its index posts its greatest weekly loss since the beginning of the year and drops its YTD change below -2.00%. The Antipodeans continue their winning streak, and the NZD Index’s YTD change turns positive.
Full research available here.





During the past week, the market was primarily governed by the Brexit developments, and thus the Pound’s index was the main mover among the observed measures. Most of its peers remained within the ±0.50% range, with notable exceptions being the Antipodeans, which retained their leading positions in the appreciation area, and the US Dollar’s gauge that finished the week as the second-worst performer.



The past week was marked by major overturbulence, with even the lowest median volatility levels, reported by the Loonie, the Euro, and the Greenback, standing above the 0.030% mark. The absolute leader was the Pound, which posted its highest median volatility since early February, and absolute highest since the Yen’s reading reported at the same time.



The greatest changes in correlations were observed among the Pound’s pairs.
Thus the currency’s pairs with the safe-havens – the Yen, the Swiss Franc, and the Greenback, – saw their weekly correlation distributions shift towards extreme levels.

Market overview for November 19 – November 23 2018: Volatility backs down to moderate from the past month’s elevated levels. The Kiwi’s index loses its leadership and pushed YTD change back below zero, the Aussie’s measure breaks its six-week growth streak, and the Swiss Franc’s gauge reports a solid gain after three periods of losses.
Full research available here.





Most of the observed indexes remained roughly in the ±0.50% range, with the notable exceptions being the Antipodeans, which became the worst performers after dominating over its peers for three periods in a row, the Canadian Dollar’s measure that had its fourth consecutive negative week, and the Swiss Franc’s index, which posted its greatest weekly gain since August.



The market’s volatility shifted down from the elevated levels observed in the past periods, with most of the weekly medians standing below the monthly readings. The Euro returned to being the most tranquil major with the median volatility of 0.024%, while the highest value of 0.033% was reported by the Pound.



The past period saw little significant changes in the observed currency pair bonds, and most of those were related to the Pound’s and the risky currency’s behaviour.

Market overview for November 26 – November 30 2018: An overall calm period with low volatility levels. The US Dollar fuels the week’s most prominent move, the Antipodeans reclaim the leaders’ positions, and the Loonie’s, the Pound’s, and the Yen’s indexes post nearly identical losses.
Full research available on our analytics page.





The past week saw the return of the Antipodeans as the leaders among the observed indexes, with a major impact coming from the US Dollar’s tumble which evoke the sharpest reactions from the Aussie’s and the Kiwi’s measures. Aside from that, the Loonie’s gauge reported its fifth consecutive weekly loss, and the Pound’s index erased previous period’s modest gain, thus keeping its YTD change on par with its Canadian peer.



The past week was relatively tranquil as all of the observed volatility medians lay below the 0.030% level, and only one event managed to push the turbulence measures above the 0.060% mark.



The most prominent changes in the observed correlations were once again reported by the Pound’s pairs, but this time most of them showed minor pullbacks from the elevated monthly levels. A notable exception were correlations between GBP/JPY and USD/JPY, which extended the patter seen in the monthly distribution and pushed their median even further into the insignificant territory.

Market overview for December 3 – December 7 2018: Market’s volatility picks up to elevated levels. The Franc’s and the Yen’s indexes share the best performer’s position, the Aussie’s gauge posts its greatest weekly loss in the year so far, and the Loonie’s measure reports both the week’s greatest jump and the sharpest fall.
Full research available on our analytics page.





Commodity-related indexes were the only measures to spend the past week in the depreciation area, with the Antipodeans falling below the baseline again after a rebound in the previous period, and the Loonie’s gauge posting its sixth weekly decline in a row. Meanwhile, the Yen’s and the Swiss Franc’s measures shared the first place among the gainers, while the Pound’s index remained the most turbulent one, but ended up with a near-zero change.



After two periods of subdued turbulence, the market’s volatility picked up again, with the observed weekly medians standing in line with or above the monthly readings.



Most of the correlations selected for the period were fell in one of the two groups – those describing the relationship between the Pound and the safe-haven, and those concerning the Europeans and the Antipodeans.