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  • #1,361
  • Aug 3, 2018 11:28am Aug 3, 2018 11:28am
Quoting reader1
{quote} hey neilsdigest (https://www.forexfactory.com/neilsdigest) gbpchf fail many days gbp break yestarday strong support zone close it sell gbpaud today {image} {image}

What's your story with GBPCHF?

Community is 99% bullish.

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Day trend clearly goes down. So what's the problem here?
  • #1,362
  • Aug 3, 2018 11:56am Aug 3, 2018 11:56am
Quoting Botan626
{quote} What's your story with GBPCHF? Community is 99% bullish. {image} Day trend clearly goes down. So what's the problem here?

yep it's wrong?
life is short.enjoy your coffee...
  • #1,363
  • Aug 3, 2018 12:48pm Aug 3, 2018 12:48pm
Quoting reader1
{quote} yep it's wrong?
reader1 I have told you many, many times, you do the opposite. that's why it's called contrarian.. Read the first post by Osjoe2. He posted the rules for me there.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=761579

Even though the GBP hits the floor it will go right through it.

Carney: No-deal Brexit risk 'uncomfortably high' - The pound will keep falling for a while yet.

The Bank of England has raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% - Yesterday's drop.

The Government is in a mess...

I'm will only post once a day as have no time at the minute.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,364
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:27pm Aug 3, 2018 2:27pm
Reader1 here is a example... The GBP is having a horrible time like I said in the post above and with yesterdays news on brexit and interest rates rising and being so weak, it will drop further.... The CAD has been very strong lately... To cut a long story short; - Retail traders are buying the GBPCAD
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The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,365
  • Edited 8:09pm Aug 3, 2018 7:34pm | Edited 8:09pm
botan626 just for you as keep forgetting to answer you on it... I won't go on too much as its 01.30.. Burning the midnight oil again. It's the only chance I get to work, when it's peaceful ;-)

Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies (A fiat currency's value is underpinned by the strength of the government that issues it, not its worth in gold or silver) and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is no doubt that gold will continue to play an integral role in the foreign exchange markets. Therefore, it is an important metal to follow and analyze for its unique ability to represent the health of both local and international economies.
In times of uncertainty, people hoard gold. You can see it in the early '80s oil crisis and recession and the most recent financial crisis, when gold prices soared, only to fall sharply once the overall economic environment improved.

Here is a chart with the Gold currency index with the 8 main currencies we all trade with against the DXY - Dollar index. One day the dollar will come crashing down. When?.. Who knows... Wish I new...

OK, I added the DXY (Dollar index) plus the BXY (GBP index)... What if the GBP still falls all the way down and then Armageddon happens with the GBP/USD and it reverses.. A new U.K Government - New brexit deals - Get ready to make your millions ;-)
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The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,366
  • Aug 3, 2018 9:58pm Aug 3, 2018 9:58pm
I suspect someone's using a macro to automatically click Dislike button to Neil's postings. Twee needs to investigate this if it breaches Terms of Services or Code of Conduct.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #1,367
  • Aug 3, 2018 10:30pm Aug 3, 2018 10:30pm
Quoting heispark
I suspect someone's using a macro to automatically click Dislike button to Neil's postings. Twee needs to investigate this if it breaches Terms of Services or Code of Conduct.
He has done.. He even knows who it is but didn't tell me who. Just tells me who it isn't LOL.... He knows not to tell me as the last person had there fingers cut off by making false accusations on a website lol
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,368
  • Aug 3, 2018 10:56pm Aug 3, 2018 10:56pm
how could we have dealt with usdjpy up move on Monday and the rest of the week falling. the usdjpy showed sell for retails. and the price went to 70 mark. if one would have opened the trade at that point, he would have missed the move. the price then went down and crossed the 30 mark. any advice?
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Forex is a wild wild beast. You cannot tame it. Just run wild with it.
  • #1,369
  • Edited 11:39pm Aug 3, 2018 11:09pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting assassin85
how could we have dealt with usdjpy up move on Monday and the rest of the week falling. the usdjpy showed sell for retails. and the price went to 70 mark. if one would have opened the trade at that point, he would have missed the move. the price then went down and crossed the 30 mark. any advice? {image}
Can I answer you tomorrow. Its gone 5am and not been sleep yet and my brain has gone... I will explain with a few charts etc.... Where to buy and when... Why sometimes it goes the retail way. It has too etc, etc.

Can you check on the myfxbook outlook on the USD/JPY for this week if possible...I don't have flash on my tablet and can't see that bit.... Only the outlook page works.

At the minute its short 54% and long 45%

Edit. If you use the RSIOMA script I gave you you will BUY only if the myfxbook says over 70% retail are selling and when the RSIOMA crosses.. The RSI crosses the MA. It's not infallible and you will get some false signals when news comes etc... The RSI2 follows the price action a lot closer and will move faster. Plus the USD/JPY was in a sell zone... It won't go higher until it drops a bit... I'm working on the PDF to update the thread.
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The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,370
  • Aug 4, 2018 1:31am Aug 4, 2018 1:31am
Quoting neilsdigest
botan626 just for you as keep forgetting to answer you on it... I won't go on too much as its 01.30.. Burning the midnight oil again. It's the only chance I get to work, when it's peaceful ;-) Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies (A fiat currency's value is underpinned by the strength of the government that issues it, not its worth in gold or silver) and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is...
Thank you Neil... You are a tree that keeps bearing great fruits...
  • #1,371
  • Aug 4, 2018 3:36am Aug 4, 2018 3:36am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Can I answer you tomorrow. Its gone 5am and not been sleep yet and my brain has gone... I will explain with a few charts etc.... Where to buy and when... Why sometimes it goes the retail way. It has too etc, etc. Can you check on the myfxbook outlook on the USD/JPY for this week if possible...I don't have flash on my tablet and can't see that bit.... Only the outlook page works. At the minute its short 54% and long 45% Edit. If you use the RSIOMA script I gave you you will BUY only if the myfxbook says over 70% retail are selling and when...
thank you. will be waiting for the reply
Forex is a wild wild beast. You cannot tame it. Just run wild with it.
  • #1,372
  • Aug 4, 2018 3:56am Aug 4, 2018 3:56am
Quoting neilsdigest
botan626 just for you as keep forgetting to answer you on it... I won't go on too much as its 01.30.. Burning the midnight oil again. It's the only chance I get to work, when it's peaceful ;-) Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies (A fiat currency's value is underpinned by the strength of the government that issues it, not its worth in gold or silver) and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is...
Neil,

In some of your posts, you mentioned people look at Currency Pairs when they should be looking at currencies. So, can one consider the currency index ,example: BXY as the equivalent for GBP currency?

Thanks
  • #1,373
  • Aug 4, 2018 7:19am Aug 4, 2018 7:19am
Quoting neilsdigest
botan626 just for you as keep forgetting to answer you on it... I won't go on too much as its 01.30.. Burning the midnight oil again. It's the only chance I get to work, when it's peaceful ;-) Gold has a profound impact on the value of world currencies. Even though the gold standard has been abandoned, gold as a commodity can act as a substitute for fiat currencies (A fiat currency's value is underpinned by the strength of the government that issues it, not its worth in gold or silver) and be used as an effective hedge against inflation. There is...

Got it. No more explanation needed. Thank you!

Good to remember that the price of commodity (GOLD) will never hit 0, but the Stock can has a 0 value one day, as companies go bankrupt.



Re that 350M trade: Could you possibly remember what currency pair it was? What was the leverage? How long did this trade last? What was the profit?

You said them Big Boys had an instant execution for it. Was it ADSS broker who provided it?

If it's of no issue to open and close such big trades, would this mean it's no problem to catch intraday 50-100 pips moves nowadays?
  • #1,374
  • Edited 8:37pm Aug 4, 2018 8:05pm | Edited 8:37pm
Quoting Botan626
{quote} Got it. No more explanation needed. Thank you! Good to remember that the price of commodity (GOLD) will never hit 0, but the Stock can has a 0 value one day, as companies go bankrupt. Re that 350M trade: Could you possibly remember what currency pair it was? What was the leverage? How long did this trade last? What was the profit? You said them Big Boys had an instant execution for it. Was it ADSS broker who provided it? If it's of no issue to open and close such big trades, would this mean it's no problem to catch intraday 50-100 pips moves...
I will quote aaven question here first.... The trouble with the currency index is that they are so old.. With for example pairing the DXY with the BXY (USD index v GBP index) Over 70% of the weight in them indexes are for the EUR.. So can you tell how really strong the USD is or the GBP is...

One way of doing in. In tradingview is the make a chart as for example you want to know how the CHF is performing.

You add the; CHFGBP+CHFEUR+CHFCAD+CHFUSD+CHFAUD+CHFNZD+CHFJPY and you will get a chart with all the main currencies with equal weight and a better picture of how the CHF currency is performing.. You can tell it's real strength or weakness.

For the GBP add: GBPEUR+GBPCHF+GBPCAD+GBPUSD+GBPAUD+GBPNZD+GBPJPY and you will see the real strength of the GBP

The 350M trade

What they wait for is a small decline or rise in prices... Not big moves but slow and steady.. Small candles going down or up.. Less then a 45% angle... Its dropping slowly and no big moves down. It's just a steady move.

As for example in the chart... They put in for example a 50 million buy order.. Usually a market prices or a few pips under the last move down.. That way they can get a virtual guarantee of that order being taken instantly as there are a lot a sellers but not big move sellers..... As the order is being taken the price will sort of consolidate then move higher... As the price is moving higher a few more buyers come into the market and the price will shoot up a bit as their isn't any big move sellers.

...... Now when they put in their buy order they set a sell limit order for 300 million (as seen on the chart).... As their is now buyers in the market their order gets filled - Sometimes it takes around 10 - 15 seconds for an order that large... Now as a lot of buyers came into the market as the price started to rise they can take out all of their stop losses and drive the price lower.. Usually 10 -25 pips - 100 -250 points or more.

The one I seen was a five million pounds (Six and a half million dollars) profit in under 12 minutes.. Not a lot from the size of the order but they do that day after day and sometimes multiple pairs.

They will most days made over ten million pounds (Over 15 million dollars)

Sometimes a lot more depending on the market.

When I left. Which was a long time ago now. They where making a billion a year.

Major investment banks are all turning to forex more... A recent report says it will more then double by 2020 to around ten billion a day.. At the minute its around five billion a day.. Around 7 years ago it was three billion a day.

I still read it on this forum that they manipulate the market... and it's fixed... It's not and no they don't manipulate it... They manipulate you into doing things and they will just do the opposite...

Now concerning the DOM... They can't see market orders... If you go and sell the GBP/USD for a thousand lots in a market order they can't see that.... All they can see is the limit orders and stop orders coming in and how many lots it is..

They will if they see a big sell limit order come in they will drive the price to it and put a massive sell limit order just under that one.. One reason you can see prices rising then you get a big drop in one go.

All about money flow....

Now one thing that annoys me with retail traders is when they say the price is just consolidating... It's not moving much. Small up then small down etc. It's ranging...

BUT WHY IS THAT?

If the USD currency is strong and rising against all the other currencies except the EUR then it is really strong.
If the EUR currency is also very strong and rising against all the other currencies except the USD then what happens to the pair - EUR/USD?

It hardly moves... It will just ranges as seen it the pic below.. The is massive buying pressure in the USD and the EUR and vise versa

If you just watch them two currencies - not the pair and just watch one coming weak as it will.

If the Eur becomes weak say after London has closed and the USD stays very strong in to the New York session... What will happen?

Obviously the EUR/USD will go down.. The EUR is weak and the USD strong

Always work on the currency first then pair them.

Retail traders have learnt from the start you buy and sell a pair... But in actual fact you are buying the currency...
If the whole market is weak and a bank takes a massive buy order on the USD/CHF then if the other currencies are weak then;
The GBPUSD will go down
The NZDUSD will go down
The USDJPY will go up

One reason why indicators don't work in forex.. The where made for stock, shares and commodities..
The Daily range indicator was made for commodities and not forex.. It won't work for Forex pairs..

What is the daily average range of the dollar index? I bet you 99.9% of the people on this forum can't tell you but they will tell you the daily range of the NZD/USD

Post here what is the average daily range over the last 7 days of the GBP.
Not the GBPUSD or the GBPJPY but just the GBP.
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The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #1,375
  • Aug 5, 2018 1:36am Aug 5, 2018 1:36am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} I will quote aaven question here first.... The trouble with the currency index is that they are so old.. With for example pairing the DXY with the BXY (USD index v GBP index) Over 70% of the weight in them indexes are for the EUR.. So can you tell how really strong the USD is or the GBP is... One way of doing in. In tradingview is the make a chart as for example you want to know how the CHF is performing. You add the; CHFGBP+CHFEUR+CHFCAD+CHFUSD+CHFAUD+CHFNZD+CHFJPY and you will get a chart with all the main currencies with equal weight...
Awesome Neil for the quick reply, and a special thanks for attaching charts/visual representation in your posts...
  • #1,376
  • Aug 5, 2018 4:47am Aug 5, 2018 4:47am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} I'll try and explain it tomorrow night... Europe time.. I can only get on a couple of times a day and seriously need some sleep... It's 05.15 here.. The GBP bottomed.. Hit the floor on Thursday New York session.. I brought the GBP/USD Friday open and closed Friday close.. without doing some quick research I can't tell at the minute if it will keep rising or drop then rise again... The GBP is having a terrible time with the bad news and brexit etc so be careful with it.. I took a risk with it even though it hit the floor and the big boys...

Neil, I have been trying to wrap my head about using Gold as a means of detecting the Money Flow.

In the below Chart GBP/WCU is near the floor and we look to go long on GBPUSD. At this point if GBP/WCU hits the floor again, we are supposed to watch what the XAU/GBP does- It should go down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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But if XAU/GBP{which is equivalent to Sell Gold/Buy GBP} goes down/near the floor as well, XAU/GBP could also rise which would mean GBP would be sold and Gold is bought which would act opposite to our Long Position of GBPUSD.

Could you please help me where i am going wrong, i want to understand when Money flows between two currencies and the role of Gold in this.

Thanks
  • #1,377
  • Aug 5, 2018 10:05am Aug 5, 2018 10:05am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} I will quote aaven question here first.... The trouble with the currency index is that they are so old.. With for example pairing the DXY with the BXY (USD index v GBP index) Over 70% of the weight in them indexes are for the EUR.. So can you tell how really strong the USD is or the GBP is... One way of doing in. In tradingview is the make a chart as for example you want to know how the CHF is performing. You add the; CHFGBP+CHFEUR+CHFCAD+CHFUSD+CHFAUD+CHFNZD+CHFJPY and you will get a chart with all the main currencies with equal weight...

Thanks every time for such detailed replies and enormously vital info!

Still would like to figure out some things.

 

  1. They put in for example a 50 million buy order.
  2. As the order is being taken the price will sort of consolidate then move higher...


50M order is 500 lots. I guess its not much for the whole forex industry, but the way you saying it opening 500 lots order already moves the market the way you want it. Can it be called market manipulation then? The way it looks it becomes like a money making machine and profit is guaranteed? Or am I missing something?

 

  1. Now when they put in their buy order they set a sell limit order for 300 million.


At the same time? Is it a common way to do the business or they just open huge market orders from time to time?

 

  1. Sometimes it takes around 10 - 15 seconds for an order that large.


You previously said 350M was executed instantly. Don't take me as a tedious person , but I really would like to know the answers for these questions:
Did they use ADSS broker?
Any leverage was applied?
Was it a limit order or a market order?

 

  1. The one I seen was a five million pounds (Six and a half million dollars) profit in under 12 minutes.


You talking about that 350M trade? If yes, it must be around a 190 pips move in under 12 minutes.

350 000 000 x 0.01900 = 6 650 000

Something is wrong? Doesn't look like a case which can be repeated every day + you saying Big Boys are gaining even more money. Where is the mistake?

 

  1. They will most days made over ten million pounds (Over 15 million dollars)
  2. Sometimes a lot more depending on the market.
  3. When I left. Which was a long time ago now. They where making a billion a year.


Sorry, Neil, I just love maths. Let's assume they are doing $8M a day. And will take 250 working days in a year. It's already 2 billion. So I'm guessing they are actually making more than $2BN a year at least?

  • #1,378
  • Edited 11:15am Aug 5, 2018 11:03am | Edited 11:15am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Neil, I have been trying to wrap my head about using Gold as a means of detecting the Money Flow. In the below Chart GBP/WCU is near the floor and we look to go long on GBPUSD. At this point if GBP/WCU hits the floor again, we are supposed to watch what the XAU/GBP does- It should go down. {image} But if XAU/GBP{which is equivalent to Sell Gold/Buy GBP} goes down/near the floor as well, XAU/GBP could also rise which would mean GBP would be sold and Gold is bought which would act opposite to our Long Position of GBPUSD. Could you please help...

False logic.

 

  1. At this point if GBP/WCU hits the floor again, we are supposed to watch what the XAU/GBP does- It should go down.


When any currency hits the floor or the roof, we are expecting for it to go the opposite direction.


You can see on the chart below that all GBPWCU, XAUWCU and XAUGBP hit the floor. But that doesn't mean they will start going up in a straight line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In fact on the last Friday it was that GBP was quite ranging, but the GOLD went up quite big.

So XAUGBP went up.

So I will repeat, that we are looking for a change in a trend direction when the floors and roofs get hit, but its not a must and sure thing to happen.
We all could become billionaires if that was that easy.

Btw this was discussed a little bit with USDJPY here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11289751#post11289751), when I asked Neil how to understand that its time to buy USDJPY.
Read that post and the one from me Neil quoted.

Quote
it's all down to experience
  • #1,379
  • Aug 5, 2018 11:33am Aug 5, 2018 11:33am
Quoting neilsdigest
Post here what is the average daily range over the last 7 days of the GBP. Not the GBPUSD or the GBPJPY but just the GBP.

((0.8+0.7+0.5+0.7+0.5+0.6+0.5) / 7) * 100 = 61.43 pips

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  • #1,380
  • Edited 5:07pm Aug 5, 2018 2:23pm | Edited 5:07pm
Hello all,

I just wanted some clarification on how to calculate currency strength using gold (gold ratings), and its relationship with WCU (as a strength indicator).

Any feedback or help is much appreciated, thanks in advance.

EDIT: I've tried to calculate the currency strength by using XAU/YYY (YYY = currency) and the 200 MA. According to my calculations, the rank order from strongest to weakest is:

USD
JPY
CAD
CHF
AUD
EUR
GBP
NZD
Can anyone comment to whether this is correct or not?
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