- #2,423
- Aug 3, 2018 5:59pm Aug 3, 2018 5:59pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
If you link 2 Tops of the same nature you draw what Jim Hurst call a Descending Valid Trend Line (VTL) - the yellow line on the graph The 2 Tops are labelled T 21 and T 22 - 2 because Price Action has broken the first 2 adjacent Envelopes As long as GBPUSD Price Action fluctuates UNDER the Descending Valid Trend Line in the red area then the Trend is DOWN and all upmoves can be classified as uptrending Corrections within a Downtrend When Price Action breaks the Descending Valid Trend Line in yellow, it generates an Action Signal If Price action...
"Trend is DOWN and all upmoves can be classified as uptrending Corrections within a Downtrend".
This is clear PA analysis but with your added 'envelopes' thrown in to sort between different trends using MA type boundaries.
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,424
- Aug 3, 2018 6:01pm Aug 3, 2018 6:01pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} So I could scalp off this ? {image} {image}
In my opinion the chart is far too cluttered.
Masterrmind...............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,425
- Aug 3, 2018 6:06pm Aug 3, 2018 6:06pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Masterrmind the aim of this chart was NOT to be a tool for Trading - at least directly This chart primarily shows the observer that : a) Price Action is (roughly) in a Cyclic Mode b) Price Action returns regularly to the mean - here the Centered Moving Average 256 Time units c) that Price Action Areas above (in green) and under(in red) the Centered Moving Average 256 Time Units are more or less equivalents which IMHO explains why Backtest results are on the long run mediocre with substantial drawdowns {image}
I was simply giving an example of what clearly should not be done in terms of 'blindly' trading with MA's.
The general view of mean reverting tendencies is fine and how price at some stage returns to the mean.
Typical PA behavior.
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,426
- Aug 3, 2018 6:13pm Aug 3, 2018 6:13pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Masterrmind I have another vision. A post-mortem analysis of what could be possible to do with simple rules and automatic buy / sell decisions {image}
In other words, identify your typical entry in advance of the fact (before PA has occurred), showing:
a) Entry level;
b) SL level; and
c) Target level.
Simple as that !
Traders need to be confident in their own trading methodologies and all I'm asking for is at least 1 before the fact trade setup example.
With the full trade setup to be played out from start to finish.
Are you willing to do that ?
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,427
- Aug 3, 2018 6:45pm Aug 3, 2018 6:45pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
EURCAD [D1; Updated Analysis]
After taking out one of my long entries price is currently about 500 pips below triggering the next Buy Stop.
The MML Grid and the trade setup characteristics are therefore not in sync at this time.
Price is currently within (or very close too) the pipe zone (3/8 to 5/8 range) and just above support at 1.49171 (end May 18).
It makes little sense now to wait for price to move 500 pips up the chart to get into the next trade.
Wasted time and a possible loss of opportunity.
So the options are:
1. Drag the Buy Stop levels down closer to current price levels keeping them in a staggered format (as they currently are);
2. Cancel the pending orders and wait to see what PA does over the next several days before re-engaging;
3. Cancel the pending orders and move onto a 'more favorable' setup on a different pair.
My opinion at this stage is to cancel the pending orders and move onto another pair.
I will however, continue to monitor the EURCAD pair since price is not far from recent lows and see if a bounce occurs.
But for now, I will start posting some additional charts on pairs that I think are worth analyzing in detail.
ps. the pending Buy Stops are likely to be cancelled from early next week !
Masterrmind...............
After taking out one of my long entries price is currently about 500 pips below triggering the next Buy Stop.
The MML Grid and the trade setup characteristics are therefore not in sync at this time.
Price is currently within (or very close too) the pipe zone (3/8 to 5/8 range) and just above support at 1.49171 (end May 18).
It makes little sense now to wait for price to move 500 pips up the chart to get into the next trade.
Wasted time and a possible loss of opportunity.
So the options are:
1. Drag the Buy Stop levels down closer to current price levels keeping them in a staggered format (as they currently are);
2. Cancel the pending orders and wait to see what PA does over the next several days before re-engaging;
3. Cancel the pending orders and move onto a 'more favorable' setup on a different pair.
My opinion at this stage is to cancel the pending orders and move onto another pair.
I will however, continue to monitor the EURCAD pair since price is not far from recent lows and see if a bounce occurs.
But for now, I will start posting some additional charts on pairs that I think are worth analyzing in detail.
ps. the pending Buy Stops are likely to be cancelled from early next week !
Masterrmind...............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,428
- Aug 3, 2018 9:45pm Aug 3, 2018 9:45pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Potential Symbols for D1 setup
AUDCHF [D1 Chart]
AUDUSD [D1 Chart]
CHFJPY [D1 Chart]
GBPAUD [D1 Chart]
NZDCAD [D1 Chart]
NZDJPY [D1 Chart]
Metals:
XAGUSD [D1 Chart]
Indices:
AUS200 [D1 Chart]
JP225 [D1 Chart]
US30 and US500
Notes:
1. Consider multiple confluent factors when analyzing a chart for a potential entry;
2. Consider the risk;
3. Careful trading Silver (XAGUSD);
4. Careful trading the Indices (especially US ones in the high levels);
5. JP225 is worthy of a closer look !
Masterrmind..............
AUDCHF [D1 Chart]
AUDUSD [D1 Chart]
CHFJPY [D1 Chart]
GBPAUD [D1 Chart]
NZDCAD [D1 Chart]
NZDJPY [D1 Chart]
Metals:
XAGUSD [D1 Chart]
Indices:
AUS200 [D1 Chart]
JP225 [D1 Chart]
US30 and US500
Notes:
1. Consider multiple confluent factors when analyzing a chart for a potential entry;
2. Consider the risk;
3. Careful trading Silver (XAGUSD);
4. Careful trading the Indices (especially US ones in the high levels);
5. JP225 is worthy of a closer look !
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,429
- Aug 3, 2018 11:00pm Aug 3, 2018 11:00pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Pros & Cons of Adding in New Positions
The charts posted above show several good examples of potential symbols worthy of trading.
The option is there to get into one of these symbols some time next week.
However, current DD is @ ~ 7.6% (all on the GU pair).
The assigned Max limit is 29% so at 7.6% DD I do have some room to move, ie get into some new trades if desired.
The options are:
1. Wait until the current DD on the GU setup erases the floating loss;
2. Allocate a small risk% and get into the 'perceived' best setup of available symbols;
3. Allocate a small to medium risk% and get into a symbol that is in some way correlated (+/-) to the GU pair.
It is also preferable to trade a symbol that offers positive swap although this is not always possible, nor should it be the only criteria.
The fundamentals should also be considered here !
Masterrmind.............
The charts posted above show several good examples of potential symbols worthy of trading.
The option is there to get into one of these symbols some time next week.
However, current DD is @ ~ 7.6% (all on the GU pair).
The assigned Max limit is 29% so at 7.6% DD I do have some room to move, ie get into some new trades if desired.
The options are:
1. Wait until the current DD on the GU setup erases the floating loss;
2. Allocate a small risk% and get into the 'perceived' best setup of available symbols;
3. Allocate a small to medium risk% and get into a symbol that is in some way correlated (+/-) to the GU pair.
It is also preferable to trade a symbol that offers positive swap although this is not always possible, nor should it be the only criteria.
The fundamentals should also be considered here !
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,430
- Aug 4, 2018 12:00am Aug 4, 2018 12:00am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDCHF [additional technical and fundamental analysis]
Previous Weeks Economic News (Source: mql5)
Upcoming Weeks Economic News (Source: mql5)
Note:
1. Consider the recent news of major trading partners to both AUD and CHF
2. Get the economic news from more than 1 source and check it.
Hint:
Past Week
Upcoming Week
ps. Don't forget about CHFs major trading partner(s), you would need to analyze that data too.
I have outlined a key analysis approach but it can go much deeper than what I have posted here.
Now put it altogether and determine your bias based on your likely time horizon for this particular setup.
A comprehensive analysis may well be considered for the symbol that interests me most in terms of placing orders.
The AUDCHF pair remains on the list of possibles at this stage.
Masterrmind..............
Previous Weeks Economic News (Source: mql5)
Upcoming Weeks Economic News (Source: mql5)
Note:
1. Consider the recent news of major trading partners to both AUD and CHF
2. Get the economic news from more than 1 source and check it.
Hint:
Past Week
Upcoming Week
ps. Don't forget about CHFs major trading partner(s), you would need to analyze that data too.
I have outlined a key analysis approach but it can go much deeper than what I have posted here.
Now put it altogether and determine your bias based on your likely time horizon for this particular setup.
A comprehensive analysis may well be considered for the symbol that interests me most in terms of placing orders.
The AUDCHF pair remains on the list of possibles at this stage.
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,431
- Aug 4, 2018 1:01am Aug 4, 2018 1:01am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Quad Candle System Methodology (Re-visited)
Post 1 outlines many of the key technical and fundamental considerations that are important in any potential trade setup.
The process of selecting a symbol to be traded may be as follows:
1. Using a D1 TF Chart, apply the template from Post 1;
2. Go through multiple symbols (currency pairs, hard & soft commodities, CFD's, Indices etc);
3. Make a note of the symbols whose price is currently trading within or close to the extreme MML zones;
4. Record if the symbol has positive or negative swap in the direction of interest;
5. Discard those symbols deemed not suitable for trading (note that this point does not necessarily have anything to do with the swap);
6. A list of possible symbols should now exist;
7. Symbol 1 - draw the technicals on the D1 Chart (Zones of S & R, key handles, key psych levels, trends, harmonic projections ABCD patterns etc);
8. Symbol 1 - gather fundamental data for each currency that makes up the pair as well as the key trading partner currencies;
9. Analyze all the data and determine if the Symbol will be kept for further analysis or rejected;
10. Perform the same analysis (as above) over all symbols of interest (accepting or rejecting);
11. A final list of Symbols is now created;
12. Decide how many Symbols fit with your trading plan ( for example, will you trade 1, 2 or more Symbols ?);
13. Choose the 'best' Symbols from the final list and discard the rest (alternatively keep some of the rejected symbols as possible go-to symbols).
Try to get as much confluence as possible for your trade setup but realize that it may not always be possible to have 100% confluency.
Be realistic !
Understand the QCS method attempts to get into the start of a new long trend as close as possible to a turning point and so it may not be possible to align every trading factor the way you would like.
The trader makes the final choice, accept, reject or sit on the sidelines.
Now you need to consider your trade setup parameters especially the assigned risk.
Check the input values again in the indicator and make sure they make sense and importantly that they are correct.
Decide on a trade entry time and session preference and enter Position 1 at your lowest banded risk level.
Remember that there will always be plenty of time to add in additional volume later.
Remember, the approach here is to start small and add into your position(s) on favorable progress.
Trade setups on a D1 TF may take several weeks if not months to play so monitor the positions and the eventual pending orders and be patient.
Masterrmind.............
Post 1 outlines many of the key technical and fundamental considerations that are important in any potential trade setup.
The process of selecting a symbol to be traded may be as follows:
1. Using a D1 TF Chart, apply the template from Post 1;
2. Go through multiple symbols (currency pairs, hard & soft commodities, CFD's, Indices etc);
3. Make a note of the symbols whose price is currently trading within or close to the extreme MML zones;
4. Record if the symbol has positive or negative swap in the direction of interest;
5. Discard those symbols deemed not suitable for trading (note that this point does not necessarily have anything to do with the swap);
6. A list of possible symbols should now exist;
7. Symbol 1 - draw the technicals on the D1 Chart (Zones of S & R, key handles, key psych levels, trends, harmonic projections ABCD patterns etc);
8. Symbol 1 - gather fundamental data for each currency that makes up the pair as well as the key trading partner currencies;
9. Analyze all the data and determine if the Symbol will be kept for further analysis or rejected;
10. Perform the same analysis (as above) over all symbols of interest (accepting or rejecting);
11. A final list of Symbols is now created;
12. Decide how many Symbols fit with your trading plan ( for example, will you trade 1, 2 or more Symbols ?);
13. Choose the 'best' Symbols from the final list and discard the rest (alternatively keep some of the rejected symbols as possible go-to symbols).
Try to get as much confluence as possible for your trade setup but realize that it may not always be possible to have 100% confluency.
Be realistic !
Understand the QCS method attempts to get into the start of a new long trend as close as possible to a turning point and so it may not be possible to align every trading factor the way you would like.
The trader makes the final choice, accept, reject or sit on the sidelines.
Now you need to consider your trade setup parameters especially the assigned risk.
Check the input values again in the indicator and make sure they make sense and importantly that they are correct.
Decide on a trade entry time and session preference and enter Position 1 at your lowest banded risk level.
Remember that there will always be plenty of time to add in additional volume later.
Remember, the approach here is to start small and add into your position(s) on favorable progress.
Trade setups on a D1 TF may take several weeks if not months to play so monitor the positions and the eventual pending orders and be patient.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,432
- Edited 7:37am Aug 4, 2018 7:24am | Edited 7:37am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,144 Posts
- #2,434
- Aug 4, 2018 8:08am Aug 4, 2018 8:08am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{image}{image} {image}
There are a few potential pairs I'm intersted in trading but the current GU setup being in a little DD warrants at least some caution.
The JP225 has my interest but not sure I'll get into Indices with this account just yet.
Lets see what develops next week.
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,436
- Aug 6, 2018 9:27am Aug 6, 2018 9:27am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{image}{image}
Current setup feeling some strain.
Positions will be monitored and if necessary closed out for loss.
Not at the closure stage just yet although current DD is just shy of 9%.
Lets see how this week develops and if the GU can find some bulls to drive it back up the chart !
Mastrerrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,438
- Aug 6, 2018 9:38am Aug 6, 2018 9:38am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Scalp the bounce's, yes the chart is a little busy but i have my sun glasses on, see you have already took the buy on your other method {image}
Ha ha ha
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #2,439
- Aug 6, 2018 9:51am Aug 6, 2018 9:51am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,144 Posts
{quote} I'm afraid I need welding goggles to view that chart my friend ! Ha ha ha Masterrmind............
- #2,440
- Aug 6, 2018 8:09pm Aug 6, 2018 8:09pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Yes I know what you mean but not sure which is the lesser of 2 evils, multi colour charts, or trying to trade 9 pairs with only half my account under these new ESMA rules, eye strain or headache.
Although its certainly possible to add in additional symbols on favorable progress.
I think you are referring to trading 9 pairs in the MTTTM Strategy.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=722353
In the MTTTM approach you can start off with 3 pairs in a TS Order 1 such as EURUSD, GBPUSD and EURGBP or other triangulated formations.
I will outline some detailed calculations showing what minimal start balance is required to trade 3 pairs or 9 pairs based on typical octive gaps and risk per trade levels.
Then I may open an account at 30:1 leverage and trade it as an example!
How does that sound ?
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades