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  • #1,001
  • Jul 30, 2018 4:03pm Jul 30, 2018 4:03pm
Trades from big banks for the week:


MS recommends selling Usd/Jpy at 111.40 (vs 111.05 currently), targeting 104.00 if triggered, with a 113.20 stop


Citi trade recommendation - sell Eur/Nok at 9.5418, targeting 9.4200 and stop at 9.6100
  • #1,002
  • Jul 31, 2018 5:13am Jul 31, 2018 5:13am
Quoting Samson85
Morning all Big week ahead as we have boe and fed central bank major events. Trades so far this week are gbp/USD and eur eur/sek I just traded the eursek GDP release and it was 2.1 vs 0.5 which is massive deviation. Will look to hold until s3 and move the stop to breakeven soon I took a long from last night hoping for a hawkish boe and a lacklustre fed this week. {image} {image}
Trade updates:

Cable is still trending well into Thursdays Boe meeting but bare in mind we have the FED tomrrow but I doubt we will see fireworks.

Eursek currently 12 points in the minus but I expect further downtrend. The mistake I made was not going in on usd/sek. Always trade the strongest vs weakest at the time.

Banks are calling for dollar selling which is clearly apparent. Only usd/jpy has legs.

I took a short on UJ last night due to expectations of boj amending their policy. Cut losses for 20 pips but if I had put a tp in place on the s2 pivot I would have walked away with profit but I didn't set a tp. Banks were shorting into the event.
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  • #1,003
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:46am Jul 31, 2018 8:46am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Trade updates: Cable is still trending well into Thursdays Boe meeting but bare in mind we have the FED tomrrow but I doubt we will see fireworks. Eursek currently 12 points in the minus but I expect further downtrend. The mistake I made was not going in on usd/sek. Always trade the strongest vs weakest at the time. Banks are calling for dollar selling which is clearly apparent. Only usd/jpy has legs. I took a short on UJ last night due to expectations of boj amending their policy. Cut losses for 20 pips but if I had put a tp in place on...
not many pairs have legs at this time.. Mostly sideways movements and very choppy trading. The Yen pairs may have legs as the BOJ defused bullish bets as the Yen bulls bets will start to unwind.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,004
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:30am Jul 31, 2018 11:30am
Quoting Samson85
The link below is a more established trading group which is more professional and run by a millionaire trader: https://t.me/samuelandcotraders
Thanks Samson, u are too kind. I'll look it up.
  • #1,005
  • Aug 1, 2018 4:58am Aug 1, 2018 4:58am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Not to be rude but your comment is the reason why traders get burnt because they don't look at forex calendars. I had so many people in a trading group telling me eur was to the upside based on moving averages and chart patterns.
So why i do not see rate decition event in forex factory calendar even now at july 25? I look at calendar all the time
  • #1,006
  • Aug 1, 2018 7:10am Aug 1, 2018 7:10am
US Fed rate decision today, not much expected from it. Likely hold rates and expectations of future rate timetable.

Tomorrow, BOE rate decision with expectation of 25BPs hike, most importantly watching tone of BOE as likely it will be an dovish hike.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,007
  • Aug 1, 2018 4:26pm Aug 1, 2018 4:26pm
Quoting OMGtrader
US Fed rate decision today, not much expected from it. Likely hold rates and expectations of future rate timetable. Tomorrow, BOE rate decision with expectation of 25BPs hike, most importantly watching tone of BOE as likely it will be an dovish hike.

Hmmmm yep fed decision was boring but boe is tricky tomrrow. It's going to be a mover.

The tone will be key but I think the chart may fly up and down for the 1st 3 minutes
  • #1,008
  • Aug 2, 2018 7:17am Aug 2, 2018 7:17am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Hmmmm yep fed decision was boring but boe is tricky tomrrow. It's going to be a mover. The tone will be key but I think the chart may fly up and down for the 1st 3 minutes
a little to be expected as BOE hiked but relatively dovish hike in general. Big reversal in prices.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,009
  • Aug 2, 2018 7:21am Aug 2, 2018 7:21am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} a little to be expected as BOE hiked but relatively dovish hike in general. Big reversal in prices.
Annoying this trade. I went long and held into the conference then it went against me. Now I'm short holding to last months previous low.

Hiking was not justified so let's see how Brits react to this.
  • #1,010
  • Aug 2, 2018 9:16am Aug 2, 2018 9:16am
Quoting Samson85
{quote} Annoying this trade. I went long and held into the conference then it went against me. Now I'm short holding to last months previous low. Hiking was not justified so let's see how Brits react to this.
I expect it to have more legs on the downside for the GBP, absolutely too much uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the economy and BOE's one and done rate hike. The next one will come drastically later until Brexit and economic data improve significantly.
Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #1,011
  • Aug 3, 2018 1:08am Aug 3, 2018 1:08am
Hey everyone

Samson, sorry if this deviates a little from the BoE discussion, but I thought this might prove useful to any new readers of the thread who might just be beginning to get into fundamental trading.

Being up-to-date with all of the happenings of the market throughout the day is a little difficult without a squawk box or a live news feed, however, for anyone who doesn't want to take the plunge and buy a subscription to one of the many services out there, then this link might prove useful. It is a 20 second delayed squawk, but also provides a news feed and is free.

I have absolutely no affiliation to this website, but thought that it might help everyone's trading: https://www.financialjuice.com/default.aspx

- M
  • #1,012
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:32am Aug 3, 2018 2:32am
Quoting OMGtrader
{quote} I expect it to have more legs on the downside for the GBP, absolutely too much uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the economy and BOE's one and done rate hike. The next one will come drastically later until Brexit and economic data improve significantly.
I agree with you hence why I'm short.

This week's lesson for me has to be never ever to trade a risk event without reading all the previews and possible scenarios because I went long via the squawk on the boe statement and was later humbled with a loss.

When trading knowing the rate is going to be increased or releases it requires patience. This is the 1st one I have flopped in a while
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  • #1,013
  • Aug 3, 2018 6:34am Aug 3, 2018 6:34am
How can currency prices move , if fundamentals are not pushing prices, only fundamentals push prices , like interest rates expectations.
  • #1,014
  • Aug 6, 2018 5:30am Aug 6, 2018 5:30am
Bank trades of the week:


Citi trade recommendation - sell Cable at 1.2986, target 1.2700 and 1.3150 stop


MS recommends selling Aud/Jpy at market (circa 82.30), targeting 79.00 and stop at 83.30
  • #1,015
  • Aug 6, 2018 7:29am Aug 6, 2018 7:29am
Quoting Samson85
Bank trades of the week: Citi trade recommendation - sell Cable at 1.2986, target 1.2700 and 1.3150 stop MS recommends selling Aud/Jpy at market (circa 82.30), targeting 79.00 and stop at 83.30
Can you give links where they write those?
  • #1,016
  • Aug 6, 2018 7:44am Aug 6, 2018 7:44am
Quoting loozers
How can currency prices move , if fundamentals are not pushing prices, only fundamentals push prices , like interest rates expectations.
Because the markets is made of people and people are emotional. Sometimes fundamentals move markets and at other times they don't. Emotion reigns supreme at times, if only fundamentals moved markets ; they will be easy to trade and all the smart people from academia will be the richest in the world. Emotions is what makes markets complex and hence hard to profit from.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #1,017
  • Aug 7, 2018 4:23am Aug 7, 2018 4:23am
Interestingly eur news today were bad but eurusd rised after release. Looks wrong. Unless its a coinsidence of bad forecast for dollar on thursday.
  • #1,018
  • Aug 8, 2018 4:24pm Aug 8, 2018 4:24pm
Traded the rbnz interest rate release via Ransquwk.
Experience paid of here because it flew up and down but i waited for the statement and took profit at R3 pivot. I have take 2/3 profit so now waiting for it to hit r3 again

Now if I had done my homework the data for rbnz has been terrible and there was 0 room for a hawkish tone so I should have been long eur/nzd just before the announcement.

This wasn't a huge trade by any means as I did it on a 5k account but hey I like winning.
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  • #1,019
  • Aug 8, 2018 4:27pm Aug 8, 2018 4:27pm
Quoting Samson85
Traded the rbnz interest rate release via Ransquwk. Experience paid of here because it flew up and down but i waited for the statement and took profit at R3 pivot. I have take 2/3 profit so now waiting for it to hit r3 again Now if I had done my homework the data for rbnz has been terrible and there was 0 room for a hawkish tone so I should have been long eur/nzd just before the announcement. This wasn't a huge trade by any means as I did it on a 5k account but hey I like winning. {image}
Profit target hit
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  • #1,020
  • Aug 8, 2018 4:49pm Aug 8, 2018 4:49pm
Quoting SPeedFANat1c
Interestingly eur news today were bad but eurusd rised after release. Looks wrong. Unless its a coinsidence of bad forecast for dollar on thursday.

Could have been profit taking from the down trend
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