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  • #5,401
  • Aug 3, 2018 1:46am Aug 3, 2018 1:46am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Great Job, Jan! Thank you spending time to show us the good setups. How much Rs you managed to get from those end of day setups yesterday? Keep up the good work TRD
Hey TRD, yesterday was 1 trade, 3 R on HLT. Usually there are 2-3 plays at end of day but sometimes its hard to catch them all, at end of day plays you need to preapare ahead well with placing limit ahead, placing 2 alerts, as price usually moves quicker than in normal market, which sometimes makes it hard to catch all of them.
  • #5,402
  • Aug 3, 2018 1:48am Aug 3, 2018 1:48am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} And here we go with Turkish lira stepping back into the headlines and into the direct bearish macro play as of this moment. Sanctions are around the corner and will hit the currency just as much as they did Russian rubble. 5.000 tested right now, with central bank now actively being tested but it doesnt matter anymore, even if TCB burns billions of USD over next days, the 5.000 bake will end with a pop move once the sanctions are released, the fight is pretty much done with result baked. As pointed many times before the pop of 5.000 was...
Turkish lira macro target baked now fully, 5.1XX done. Sanctions not yet fully released, which means that at news release often in such cases one might expect reverse price move, but in this case due to bad situation in Turkey overall it might not happen, might get a further upward bake on USDTRY.
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  • #5,403
  • Aug 3, 2018 1:51am Aug 3, 2018 1:51am
Chinese yuan still on the run south from the escalating trade war. Chances are this trend will still carry forward as chances for situation to reverse are basically none.
Any USDCNH bull micro plays are still valid for a large targets.
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  • #5,404
  • Aug 3, 2018 1:53am Aug 3, 2018 1:53am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Great Job, Jan! Thank you spending time to show us the good setups. How much Rs you managed to get from those end of day setups yesterday? Keep up the good work TRD
Oh whoops, noticed you posted this message today so you meant yesterdays setups not 2 days ago. Yesterday was 6 R in total.
  • #5,405
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:18am Aug 3, 2018 2:18am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Oh whoops, noticed you posted this message today so you meant yesterdays setups not 2 days ago. Yesterday was 6 R in total.
yeah, dont worry. I just want to learn how to do it, thatswhy i am asking. So you post 2 charts and i drew best possible SL locations. Overall i come to 2.5R.
What i do wrong?
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  • #5,406
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:23am Aug 3, 2018 2:23am
USDCNH going.
  • #5,407
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:29am Aug 3, 2018 2:29am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} yeah, dont worry. I just want to learn how to do it, thatswhy i am asking. So you post 2 charts and i drew best possible SL locations. Overall i come to 2.5R. What i do wrong? {image} {image}
It is because the R units are not counted by DD on trade they are always pre-planned based on pre-planned where SL will be and sometimes i use a bit larger size especially for better probability plays which means that actual risk on trade could be up to 2 R, thats why the R count came to number 6.
Basically with other words, trade execution is not always picture perfect as the strategy dictates thats why a bit of-scaling comes.

For example the NVDA trade was 3 R trade as overall DD was 1.5 R (SL bellow micro shelf of 2 R risk). CLX was 2 R (with DD 1.5 R or so) and RCL was 1 R. RCL is not visible on chart as the entry was taken on my main acc,. all my R reports are from main account since thats where it matters for me. NVDA and RCL both had set SL with overall 2 R on risk (due to larger positions) and CLX did not have SL since i was actively watching that one.

The reason why i use 2 accounts for entry is as i mentioned before my main acc uses proprietary software at fund which is order execution software only, it has no charts and for strategies presented here having a trade on chart is a must so that one can see how big the distance to loss ratio is, so i need to always take entry on secondary to then see how many shares to buy on main one, but its not always needed, on low volatility scaled assets such as RCL yesterday its a standard position to take no need to measure.
  • #5,408
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:48am Aug 3, 2018 2:48am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} It is because the R units are not counted by DD on trade they are always pre-planned based on pre-planned where SL will be and sometimes i use a bit larger size especially for better probability plays which means that actual risk on trade could be up to 2 R, thats why the R count came to number 6. Basically with other words, trade execution is not always picture perfect as the strategy dictates thats why a bit of-scaling comes. For example the NVDA trade was 3 R trade as overall DD was 1.5 R (SL bellow micro shelf of 2 R risk). CLX was 2...
Hi Jan,

Thanks for your reply. So 2R risk and 6 R profit. Which makes it 1:3 RR at the end. I personally use risk reward following way: 1R for me are the amount of dollars i am williing to risk on a single trade. If i want to risk 500 dollars on a trade, 2R would mean 1000 dollar profit.

Another thing you also said in that post is "90% of profits coming from end of the day short squeeze plays"
At that day you had 3R (according to classical RR rules) from end of the day short squeeze plays.
That means that for the whole day your earned roughly 0.3R before hitting the end of day plays? Correct?
I am bad at math you know, just trying to understand it.

TRD
  • #5,409
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:54am Aug 3, 2018 2:54am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Hi Jan, Thanks for your reply. So 2R risk and 6 R profit. Which makes it 1:3 RR at the end. I personally use risk reward following way: 1R for me are the amount of dollars i am williing to risk on a single trade. If i want to risk 500 dollars on a trade, 2R would mean 1000 dollar profit. Another thing you also said in that post is "90% of profits coming from end of the day short squeeze plays" At that day you had 3R (according to classical RR rules) from end of the day short squeeze plays. That means that for the whole day your earned roughly...
Actually the R unit is not a subjective variable. My R is same to your R, its completly fixed way. The R is constructed of two things, one is volatility (size of SL distance) and second is amount of USD of account that you will risk, so both tied together form R.
That means that it isnt just the SL distance that dictates the R at risk, nor it is just the amount of USD you will risk that dictates R, both of them together do.

So for example take NVDA trade as example. I could set SL bellow micro shelf and risked 1 R on that trade. I could also set exactly the same SL but risked 2 R simply by sizing position stronger. The trade execution quality remains the same, if trade worked out i would just get paid more, and there was nothing wrong with doubling position if setup has decent quality to it.

When it comes to R you always take in account both of those two variables together.
What is probably confusing you here is that most of trades i report are 1 R units and also scaled that way, in end of the day plays i just double the size up thats whats probably confusing you. And thats why 90% of profits mentioned also are there, by that i didnt include FX, only equities.
.
  • #5,410
  • Aug 3, 2018 2:57am Aug 3, 2018 2:57am
Thin markets today on FX again, no point sticking to it. Coming for equites only.
  • #5,411
  • Aug 3, 2018 6:21am Aug 3, 2018 6:21am
Starting equities with focus on WMLP heavy short squeeze. Very tiny float only 1 mil shares outstanding, this one could explode in either direction very quick.
Bearish macro rectangle plotted for short play, but very thin low floaters are always played on short side only when the bullish momentum collapses, until that doesnt happen....it can go further higher and higher.
Its a very high probability play (95% win - success rate) but first needs a hammering rejection before it comes into play. Secondary option is shorting micro setup of demand failure.

Eventual target on play is back down to 2 bucks. Not sure yet if Tradezero will have shares to borrow, will see.
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  • #5,412
  • Aug 3, 2018 6:55am Aug 3, 2018 6:55am
Quoting janpec1000
Starting equities with focus on WMLP heavy short squeeze. Very tiny float only 1 mil shares outstanding, this one could explode in either direction very quick. Bearish macro rectangle plotted for short play, but very thin low floaters are always played on short side only when the bullish momentum collapses, until that doesnt happen....it can go further higher and higher. Its a very high probability play (95% win - success rate) but first needs a hammering rejection before it comes into play. Secondary option is shorting micro setup of demand failure....
4,60 setting up for demand failure play.
  • #5,413
  • Aug 3, 2018 8:36am Aug 3, 2018 8:36am
Quoting janpec1000
Starting equities with focus on WMLP heavy short squeeze. Very tiny float only 1 mil shares outstanding, this one could explode in either direction very quick. Bearish macro rectangle plotted for short play, but very thin low floaters are always played on short side only when the bullish momentum collapses, until that doesnt happen....it can go further higher and higher. Its a very high probability play (95% win - success rate) but first needs a hammering rejection before it comes into play. Secondary option is shorting micro setup of demand failure....
Flagship play of the day WMLP heavy short squeeze with demand failure and full collapse. 4,60 demand failed and the asset crashed from there with a 0 draw down on setup. Full 23 R trade right there. Target of 2 bucks mentioned on post above reached pretty much within few hours.

Example of well planned trade with a full realistic performance of expectations.

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Bellow is quick sum up why expecting a crash was realistic. Thing is the asset hasnt traded above 3 USD for a long time with consistent price exchange which means that there will be a lack of order flow to sustain the price if price starts coming down. The whole upward trust move was baked pre market and the volume there is always far lower than actual live trading volume, which serves as vaccum for price once it starts to test that area, it swipes trough as there is no demand holding it up. And that is main reason why this pattern performs with 95% accuracy rate.
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  • #5,414
  • Aug 3, 2018 8:43am Aug 3, 2018 8:43am
The rest coming for end of the day plays.
  • #5,415
  • Aug 3, 2018 12:11pm Aug 3, 2018 12:11pm
ELY first one on the list for potential end of the day play.
  • #5,416
  • Aug 3, 2018 12:26pm Aug 3, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Flagship play of the day WMLP heavy short squeeze with demand failure and full collapse. 4,60 demand failed and the asset crashed from there with a 0 draw down on setup. Full 23 R trade right there. Target of 2 bucks mentioned on post above reached pretty much within few hours. Example of well planned trade with a full realistic performance of expectations. {image} Bellow is quick sum up why expecting a crash was realistic. Thing is the asset hasnt traded above 3 USD for a long time with consistent price exchange which means that there will...
WMLP T12 halt. Bullet dodged.
  • #5,417
  • Aug 3, 2018 12:32pm Aug 3, 2018 12:32pm
EA
  • #5,418
  • Aug 3, 2018 12:55pm Aug 3, 2018 12:55pm
Nothing came into play today, very low volume end of the day.
  • #5,419
  • Aug 6, 2018 1:43am Aug 6, 2018 1:43am
USDCNH for potential play.
  • #5,420
  • Aug 6, 2018 9:03am Aug 6, 2018 9:03am
How are you, Jan?

back from a long trip, now continue the study, and pick up what i've missed last week. 10+ pages. lol

will expect a solid shelf, since there's no momentum so far. right now, it looks B quality.
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