Time for Change - Pivots & Harmonics to freedom

After 8 years of on and off trading with only mixed success and nothing consistent, I have identified two main flaws that have held me back from success in this business. The first is having a general lack of discipline, and the second, having a tendency to flip flop between many different strategies. I have come to the realization that I need a transparent and permanent record of my trades and thought processes that I can refer back to, in order to hold myself accountable and grow into a successful trader. The strategy used moving forward will be Fibonacci based weekly pivots and harmonics. Big shout out to Davit and his Pivot Trading thread for the solid advice, indicators & templates. This guy is the man!

I am using MT4 for charting only and will manually place lines on the posted charts for my entries & exits, which will correspond to my trade explorer here at FF. Trades will be marked using green dashed lines. Multiple entries may be shown as a single average line unless timing and price of entries are significantly different.

As a general note, the Fib-Pivots can also be found via https://www.actionforex.com/markets/...-pivot-points/ and clicking on the weekly tab.

Here we go!

9/18/19 EDIT:

1) I no longer use harmonics. I only use Daily & Weekly fib pivots, fundamental analysis, and a contrarian view on overall market sentiment.
2) I have deposited and withdrawn several times throughout this Oanda account, which skews the percentages shown in the Trade Explorer. NOTE-ONCE I OPENED THIS OANDA ACCOUNT, I HAVE NOT HAD ANY ACTIVITY IN ANY OTHER ACCOUNT. ABSOLUTELY NONE! YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO TAKE MY WORD ON THAT.
3) The extra monies I have deposited were to cover margin requirements during periods of drawdown, and I have always pulled it right back out. So, for simplicity sake, I am using only my first deposit of $1,000 as my 'starting balance'. This can be seen in the screenshot below. You can also see in the screenshot, my first trade, which will coincide with the Trade Explorer.

OK first trade. Saw USD/JPY bounce cleanly off of S38 at approx 7:30-8am. Took profit at first hault in price. Should have let the profit ride all the way to the pivot, as price is always trying to get back to the pivot (back to the mean). Clear cross up on the TDI confirmed short term bounce. Despite taking profit too early, this trade was in accordance with the rules.

Next, identified a Bullish Bat harmonic on the weekly, EUR/USD. Weekly time frame may be too much to handle but will keep this bat in mind. Entered long per pivot at S61. Notice how price is respecting the pivots. Stops must be at least 25 pips from the pivot (per Davit's proven system) as they are not meant to be exact, just areas that price action needs to be watched for possible reversal. I chased this one, could have had a better entry had I waited. Perhaps I will institute a rule of not taking a trade unless it is within 10 pips of the pivot. Good cross on the TDI though and the Angleator is showing bullish from M5 through H1. Per the weekly Bullish Bat, this could be a long ride, but depending on PA at the S38, I may exit there and look for another entry later.

As of 1:00am May 29, all EUR/USD positions were in profit. By 5:00am May 29, I had been margin called. Market dropped approximately 230 pips in 29 hours. Horrible trade management. Horrible money management. This is what I've always done and was hoping that this trading journal would help to stop. As a penalty to myself I am not allowing myself to trade for 4 weeks. I will still be looking for trades per the system and will paper trade them.

When I come back, the first goal will be getting net positive again on this account.

Back! After reading (listening to) Trading in the Zone & Market Wizards, I believe I am starting to overcome the psychological barriers to my success. I have created a new template in mt4 which includes all 3 of my edges on 1 chart. HOLO, Weekly Fib Pivots, and Harmonics. I identified the following trade last night and took it, per completion of H4 Bullish Bat & bounce off of S100 level, on AJ. Traded directly into profit. Added 1 additional position at 8:30 am. Positions = 3 @ 81.25, 1 @ 81.26 (on the retest) & 1 @ 81.77. TP 82.60 (TP may vary depending on where next week's pivots come into play). Leaving open over the weekend.

Ended up adding another position at 81.57. Took profits on all positions at 82. Decision to take profits was 3-fold.

1.) Profit was 19% of account balance, an impressive return by any standard
2.) It was Friday, and with the geopolitical risk we've seen these days I decided against taking on the risk of the weekend hold.
3.) No longer bullish on AUD. It is no longer a carry trade (no positive swap) and RBA is dovish on monetary policy. Additionally, AUD has been extremely weak for quite some time and there is no evidence to suggest a change in this trend.

Sunday evening, 8pm. Inside the moving hour for AUD, AUD/JPY broke down on a HOLO setup and took the short for $5/pip. AUD/USD & USD/JPY look they they could both drop, which would mean an even bigger drop in AJ. Tight stop on this one but could be a runner (already in profit now before posting this) & correlates with my bearish AJ view.

Great way to start the week. Added another small short position on a spike high and took profit on all positions at +40 pips. +11% on the account. Trade took about 10 hours. These are the types of quick in & out, low risk setups I'm looking for.

Monday evening around 9pm. Identified Bullish Butterfly on AU. Although fundamentally I am bearish AUD the chart was just screaming for a long. In profit at this time and stop set to BE. TP open, but not shooting for the moon...thinking 744X.

Economic data came out for AUD which left a lot to be desired. Closed my longs at 7421 last night and it was a good thing too because price dropped 45 pips straight down after making that high. 35% return on that trade in just 24 short hours! 3 winners in a row now. Historically, it would be time for me to place a super heavy position randomly and hope for it to be a home run. Not this time. Just going to try keeping up these low risk trades. Back in the black for Oanda. Next goal is to get in the black for 2018.

I've thought it over and have decided to restart the trade explorer as of the end of June when I started back up again. It does me no good for performance monitoring to have that miss-managed EU trade in there. That trader died with that trade and a new, more agile and disciplined trader has risen from the dust. Plus all the withdrawals I made after that trade screw up the % calculation. I'll post a screenshot below as proof that the account is net profitable since inception. A fresh start on the Trade Explorer will allow me to better track my performance.

Another trade here at 6:50pm. Buy AJ on the pivot. Confluence with Daily Butterfly (type 2 entry) & a bunch of short term bullish harmonics on the M5. This is all coupled with a very bullish fib pivot setup (break of the pivot and bouncing on the retest). Will add half a lot on a solid break and retest of 81.60.

That was another winner (+11%). 4 winners in a row now. Closed before NFP to avoid additional risk. A losing trade is right around the corner and how I manage the loss and my ability to move forward psychologically will be key. Done for the week now and up 69.8% in just this one week! Need to remember to stay humble and to not allow my perceptions to be warped by this winning streak.

Short on EU per H4 & H1 bearish Gartley, aong with several shorter term M5 bearish various harmonics, all coupled with confluence with the S38 pivot.

Took profits at the pivot (and round number) 1700. It may continue down but it has already jumped back up 20 pips so I am happy with my decision. +60 pips (+17%). Note, the positive swap on EU shorts is amazing! That's 5 winners in a row....a little scared of what losing streak may be yet to come, need to keep a clear head.

Woke up to this beautiful bullish bat on AU and got in right at the bottom. Trade is backed up by the daily. Problem is it didn't bounce far enough to take profits and now I am in a bit of a drawdown. This may turn out to be my first loser. We shall see.

Whew! Markets are nuts these days with the Chinese trade war & currency devaluation, Iranian sanctions, Trump's unpredictable tweeting, etc. This one was a wild ride and I decided to close before the weekend. +10%. 6 winners in a row now. This one was almost a loss and honestly was poorly managed. I can feel the effect of a rising account balance making it harder to stay disciplined. Will come back next week looking for a fresh trade and with renewed psychological awareness.

Got long again on AU based on that same daily harmonic. Closed just now for +12%. May go much higher but I am happy with the trade and did not want to get greedy. 7 winners in a row.

Long CHF/JPY based on bullish Bat and a bounce off the S61. Closed early due to the fact that I was paying roughly $6 per day in negative swap. Won't be looking for longs on this pair again...too pricey. Plus there is some high impact JPY news coming out this evening that I did not want to hold through. +3% (after paying the swap). It's only a small win (20 pips) but I'll take it. 8 in a row now. Sure would be nice to get to 10 winners in a row!

Short on EUR/GBP at 8912 based on the completion of 2 separate bearish Bats on the H1, coupled with a clean rejection of the R38. In profit currently, initially targeting the S38. Major GBP news coming out in the morning though so we shall see. This trade coincides with multiple longer term bearish Bats on the Daily, targeting the S100 at 8825. Fundamentally, the BOE is raising rates while the ECB has been dovish...providing further fuel for the short trade here. I cut that CHF/JPY trade way too early (it turned out to be a real runner), may have to let this run and see if the daily harmonics play out!

The black portion of the harmonics below represent overlays (multiple patterns completing near the same point).

Ok so it's been 56 days in this trade. Had some drawdown but decided that both technically & fundamentally I still believe in the trade, so I added to my position bringing my average entry up to 8924, and to a full lot (worth approx $13/pip USD). This pair is a slow mover. I'm certainly incurring some opportunity cost by not being able to trade elsewhere, but I am simultaneously keeping myself out of losing trades, so it balances out in that way. Still targeting 8825. However, the screenshot below shows a long term harmonic targeting roughly 800 pips down over the next 9 months. Extremely long term, but I may keep shorting rallies on this pair as long as the fundamental and technical picture holds up.