{quote} Market has moved 0.002 up from where it was before the news... this is far from a big move up. Perspective. I'd challenge you to see that.It could still go down here soon. "It will fluctuate"
- #31,383
- Aug 1, 2018 7:42am Aug 1, 2018 7:42am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
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- #31,384
- Aug 1, 2018 7:43am Aug 1, 2018 7:43am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
{quote} maybe you can help me with this math here..so ADP was released positive, but EUR USD goes up atm, is it right? It means that EUR is getting stronger against USD, its opposite to news..
Does this look like conviction up to you? (image below). You are never going to nail a top/bottom, what are you expecting?
The second image shows a conviction move - after the ECB press conference.
- #31,387
- Aug 1, 2018 7:47am Aug 1, 2018 7:47am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
I used to get pissed about this also... but your JOB is to know how to work into it so say you want to be short on that news - you should know how to execute it in a way that even if you are wrong, you can avoid a lot of danger.
From what I've seen, it is possible. It is not easy. It requires daily context, using 1HR charts, possibly working in on the minute level. You need to make a model of the world here that works basically. The news can create the volatility that enables you to make $. No volatility follow through? - you just get out for a small loss, or had never entered.
If it was completely clear, everyone would do it and the return would be shiz.
From what I've seen, it is possible. It is not easy. It requires daily context, using 1HR charts, possibly working in on the minute level. You need to make a model of the world here that works basically. The news can create the volatility that enables you to make $. No volatility follow through? - you just get out for a small loss, or had never entered.
If it was completely clear, everyone would do it and the return would be shiz.
- #31,388
- Aug 1, 2018 7:49am Aug 1, 2018 7:49am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
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- #31,390
- Aug 1, 2018 7:53am Aug 1, 2018 7:53am
- Joined Mar 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,445 Posts
I said I have a "long bias" on the day. Who knows, maybe some big institution(s) agree with me and someone was buying into that news that should have driven it down. So new sell supply that came on line from that news met demand it stabilized slightly up at 0.002. And maybe it will come down here soon... But who knows and who should care right?
- #31,392
- Aug 1, 2018 7:58am Aug 1, 2018 7:58am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 5,648 Posts | Online Now
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
- #31,393
- Aug 1, 2018 7:59am Aug 1, 2018 7:59am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
and what about facebook stocks?
2. I said the stocks (Nq) doesnt look good even the Apple all-time high
...but keep asking smart questions sweety
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- #31,396
- Aug 1, 2018 8:01am Aug 1, 2018 8:01am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 14,257 Posts
I think I finally have the answer why some kinda important economical events don't have any impact on forex market..I just wonder how exactly FOMC muted ADP? It's like if there is even more important event later, the current event won't give any push to market..?
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- #31,399
- Aug 1, 2018 8:08am Aug 1, 2018 8:08am
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 7,803 Posts
{quote} It is not a big move up. So this doesn't even count as an up move in my book. Are you really playing for 0.002? Really? If you think it is overvalued by your system, wait for the ISM news and see if you can catch some downside then. Does this look like conviction up to you? (image below). You are never going to nail a top/bottom, what are you expecting?
