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  • #31,301
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:39am Aug 1, 2018 1:39am
Quoting msniper
so today the euro will make the breakout from the triangle and the boring 1 month sideways. question who is long and who is short ? big news today. be careful bulls
The big question is eu couldnt close a day below 1.1650 for 3 monts 1.2150 is possible today will be very agressive i agree but long is reasonable for me
  • #31,302
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:39am Aug 1, 2018 1:39am
h4: >>>DOWN
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  • #31,303
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:40am Aug 1, 2018 1:40am
Quoting msniper
so today the euro will make the breakout from the triangle and the boring 1 month sideways. question who is long and who is short ? big news today. be careful bulls
big news? more like no news...

FED is expect to hold onto current interest rate & maintain another rate hike odds in September, so today’s FED is most likely a non event

though as usual FED event should provide some volatility to re-enter sell (sell high) to sell the euro...

i got out with 45 pips from yesterday’s selling from 1.1720 decline, and now i am waiting for a better re-entry option circa 1.1700 (if reach)
  • #31,304
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:40am Aug 1, 2018 1:40am
diamond pattern in m5
  • #31,305
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:42am Aug 1, 2018 1:42am
Quoting Tekin
{quote} The big question is eu couldnt close a day below 1.1650 for 3 monts 1.2150 is possible today will be very agressive i agree but long is reasonable for me

edit: couldnt close a month
  • #31,306
  • Edited 1:58am Aug 1, 2018 1:43am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting Moty
For all those who have entered long, I will not ask the irritating question "where the bears are, my friends?" , but in my opinion I think you are making a mistake. There is no trigger. We are under the 50% correction of the last move up, below the daily pivot, we broke yesterday's low which was pure bearish, we are currently in a continuous decline of 18 hourly candles, most of which were negative through 70 pips. We are in declining Bollinger . I think you need wait for at least for mini trigger and then enter with a tight stop {image}
finally there is one thread i would agree with you, Moty

same analysis here, just that as a trader, i am always worry for a possible U-turn by bulls out of nothing (even though the technical is clearly bearish) especially through some big impact announcement like FED

i have my eye everyday since the last week of July on the lower triangle trendline, “imagining” euro to breakdown and test 1.1500 then 1.1400 and eventually 1.1300, yet i am still very cautious, yesterday sell trade from 1.1745 (i watched) and enter at 1.1720 was executed nicely (upper trendline rejection)

the way i see from here, is to look for a possible correction and sell the rally as long is below 1.1746 (yesterday's high), if price ever touches 1.1790 (July's high) it would negate the triangle pattern and might charge towards 1.1850, although this is the most "unlikely" scenario, IMHO

fundamentally, eurusd is bearish, the triangle pattern we are seeing now is a high probability trend contination pattern, in this case, bearish trend ever since the decline in 2018, and not to forget, 1.1714 (i mentioned this morning) is a candle high dated back to on Aug 24, 2015, the day of flash crash in the US stock market, it carried important significance when u once again look back in August 2017 where bulls bounced off this level +800pips and until it carved 2018 yearly’s high at 1.2555
  • #31,307
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:46am Aug 1, 2018 1:46am
H1 chart

Guys correct if am wrong


Thanks
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  • #31,308
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:46am Aug 1, 2018 1:46am
Quoting msniper
so today the euro will make the breakout from the triangle and the boring 1 month sideways. question who is long and who is short ? big news today. be careful bulls
Mr BEAR! is like you have the crystal ball for bear market today!!You disappointed me yesterday, i thought you will show up when ATA went on the sideline by holding his horse up
  • #31,309
  • Aug 1, 2018 1:57am Aug 1, 2018 1:57am
Fakeout?
  • #31,310
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:05am Aug 1, 2018 2:05am
Hello Friends,

I am a seller today. waiting for a signal to enter.

I hope I am on the same page with Ata.
  • #31,311
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:10am Aug 1, 2018 2:10am
Quoting Moty
For all those who have entered long, I will not ask the irritating question "where the bears are, my friends?" , but in my opinion I think you are making a mistake. There is no trigger. We are under the 50% correction of the last move up, below the daily pivot, we broke yesterday's low which was pure bearish, we are currently in a continuous decline of 18 hourly candles, most of which were negative through 70 pips. We are in declining Bollinger . I think you need wait for at least for mini trigger and then enter with a tight stop {image}
Nice analysis yesterday, I was just waiting to buy but thing became clear when price broke 1.17000. It was too late to enter, market was out of steam. It was awesome July thanks to Ata's 15min trading method.
  • #31,312
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:14am Aug 1, 2018 2:14am
I bought long ahead of london open. 15 min chart
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1 see confirmation till the end 2. set SL and never cancel it
  • #31,313
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:16am Aug 1, 2018 2:16am
Quoting Moty
For all those who have entered long, I will not ask the irritating question "where the bears are, my friends?" , but in my opinion I think you are making a mistake. There is no trigger. We are under the 50% correction of the last move up, below the daily pivot, we broke yesterday's low which was pure bearish, we are currently in a continuous decline of 18 hourly candles, most of which were negative through 70 pips. We are in declining Bollinger . I think you need wait for at least for mini trigger and then enter with a tight stop {image}
Moty my friend u r the trigger. entered long at 1681.
  • #31,314
  • Edited 2:27am Aug 1, 2018 2:16am | Edited 2:27am
eu 15 m uptade
i belive the price will fall from 3 potential points : yesterday's low, inverse h&s neck line, daily pivot
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THE reason for going up now is the correlated pairs
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yes yes yes
  • #31,315
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:16am Aug 1, 2018 2:16am
GM - the last 2 closed candles on the hourly chart are green. The drift lower from the US close was on very low volumes.
The Frankies Hour candle was a High Volume spinning top - like a doji.
In FH price held ~today's S1 level before putting in a M5 HL off the **25 SS....I bought.

Price needs to clear and stay above yesterday's US close at 1.1692 to make me think of higher prices.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #31,316
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:20am Aug 1, 2018 2:20am
Quoting Tekin
small trial bought at 1,16781 stop 1,1670 tp is mainly 1,1770 but i will decide
+10 pips and stop @BE
  • #31,317
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:20am Aug 1, 2018 2:20am
Quoting dele5000
{quote} Mr BEAR! is like you have the crystal ball for bear market today!!You disappointed me yesterday, i thought you will show up when ATA went on the sideline by holding his horse up
I don't have a crystal ball. I just follow the trend and I use Elliott waves. and the trend is down. but I do admit that Elliott have both scenario up and down that can happen. but I am favoring the selling only.

I shorted before 2 weeks and I didn't close my short yet. still in profit but my target is way down. looking for a break below 1.15 my stoploss is around 1.1790
  • #31,318
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:22am Aug 1, 2018 2:22am
Quoting Godzilla
{quote} Moty my friend u r the trigger. entered long at 1681.
Fun as it may be, but that's no way to trade, wait for a real trigger.
yes yes yes
  • #31,319
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:23am Aug 1, 2018 2:23am
Quoting king_a
diamond pattern in m5
broke to the up side.. close half and stop at be..feeling choppy market
  • #31,320
  • Aug 1, 2018 2:23am Aug 1, 2018 2:23am
if u look at DXY it failed to break the support and it made a nice bounce. and it broke the 4h down trend. so I am expecting further strength in dollars which will lead to euro weakness
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