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  • #31,181
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:04am Jul 31, 2018 8:04am
In H4 we have a doji bar with sustained volume appearing in resistance level 1.1744-1.1753, and also in H1 we have a bearish engulfin candle with sustained volume. We are in a sell, but I think that the big one is going to come by the USD Consumer confidence announcement at 9.00 GMT-5.

Have a good sell !!
  • #31,182
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:05am Jul 31, 2018 8:05am
1.1725/30 is bearish breakout level on H1 (M15 system applied to H1).. Later we can target these levels to short. Once current H1 candle closes below 1.1726 I am switching back to selling swing highs..

And for M15 chart I see 1.1723/31 area best place for sell.. Support: 1.1711 must break to make solid profit!

Good luck to all bears..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #31,183
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:10am Jul 31, 2018 8:10am
15MIN eu , DXY

SL - 1.1748
ENTRY point - 1.1725
TP 20P over
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1 see confirmation till the end 2. set SL and never cancel it
  • #31,184
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:10am Jul 31, 2018 8:10am
usually a move like this will end us up down at 1663 1657 area . If we stay below 200 ema on weekly which is at 1729 Month open may drive things all the way to 1544
  • #31,185
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:11am Jul 31, 2018 8:11am
Man divergence finally set in. Was getting worried there for a while. Seemed like the bulls was getting stronger.
Now lets wait and see and slowly add more small orders. My target is 1.16850
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  • #31,186
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:12am Jul 31, 2018 8:12am
Damn, that was a nice fast collection of pips and exactly why we love EU.
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  • #31,187
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:15am Jul 31, 2018 8:15am
Fundamentally, I am getting VERY nervous that Bank of Japan has lost control of their markets. This could have HUGE implications on all JPY pairs(of course), but also could have a big impact on the EUR/US indirectly. Follow my logic:

Bank of Japan loses control of their markets, it drives $ to US Dollar, it drives $ up (Even against EUR), then knocks out the stock market which drives up both EUR and USD

It is really an interesting paradigm. The US Government wants a weaker dollar so they can export more, and more importantly not have a stock crash, but it is impossible in today's world because almost every major country is in financial mess. The US is viewed as "the best of the worst" economies. Japans announcement this morning was HUGE news for all markets including ours.

I expect a very volatile next week, I really think we have a chance to see 1500s on EUR/USD later this week.

The only way I see a chance to see 120's is if BOJ, and EU and other countries can get their houses in order. Otherwise it is going to drive money to $
  • #31,188
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:16am Jul 31, 2018 8:16am
Well picked Moty,you hunted that one very well..lets hope the wind continu blow fairly..looking good.at mo..
  • #31,189
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:17am Jul 31, 2018 8:17am
Shorting from 1.1741 with TP 1.1665. SL +1pip.
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  • #31,190
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:17am Jul 31, 2018 8:17am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} To really profit from solid selling we need at least one clear H1 candle close below 1.1725 for the next 4 hours.. but overall it is too early.. I took my profit at some very nice price: 1.17388 and now prefer to wait on sidelines.. Analyse the H1 chart below please.. and tell me if that picture looks good to sell for now? Stay Green {image}

To me any sell before 1.18x is risky unless we have 100+ pips SL, but also wondering if the market will ever give that nice 1.18x levels to bears at all. Since I am Position Trader, it may look funny to most of the expert traders, but I will only add new shorts from 1.18x or below 1.1470 unless Dollar Index breaks 95 resistance. For a moment I just enjoy the daily swap income. As I learn from you more, maybe in future I may think about daily trades but for now I am too bad for it.
Position Trader
  • #31,191
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:17am Jul 31, 2018 8:17am
a small crush running for 1.1691/80/64 if may held , care , fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #31,192
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:18am Jul 31, 2018 8:18am
Quoting MXT
short @ 1.1728 sl 40 pips tp open
trailing my sl + 10 pips locked in

holding short

edit : closed @ 1.1718
  • #31,193
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:24am Jul 31, 2018 8:24am
Quoting shebalik
{quote} To me any sell before 1.18x is risky unless we have 100+ pips SL, but also wondering if the market will ever give that nice 1.18x levels to bears at all. Since I am Position Trader, it may look funny to most of the expert traders, but I will only add new shorts from 1.18x or below 1.1470 unless Dollar Index breaks 95 resistance. For a moment I just enjoy the daily swap income. As I learn from you more, maybe in future I may think about daily trades but for now I am too bad for it.
Of course you are thinking long-term, and at least based on H1, H4 or higher.. and I agree there.. But these bear moves can be seen as simple retracements/corrections. We are not talking about long-term bearish continuation at all YET. My Monthly Resistance level 1.1742 is just being retested. Rejection came based on intraday and naturally many scalpers will try to make some profit out of those bears kicking in. I am one of them as well but I prefer to sell the retracement back to breakout level 1.1725/30 area.. Same old same old..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #31,194
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:26am Jul 31, 2018 8:26am
I'm hoping we can see a healthy pull-back prior to the close today. And prior to tomorrow's FED meeting at 2 EST. It looks like it might stabilize here though unfortunately.

I don't want it higher up in "no man's land" since I'm looking for a buy around/post FED meeting at 2 EST tomorrow... for now it is buy, if this runs up a lot, it could be a sell but right now looking for buy tomorrow.
  • #31,195
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:27am Jul 31, 2018 8:27am
M15 Status Update (Only for my M15 System followers)

Price came back to retest breakout levels as mentioned. Switched down to M1 Chart to see breakout from BLUE TL..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #31,196
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:29am Jul 31, 2018 8:29am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
M15 Status Update (Only for my M15 System followers) Price came back to retest breakout levels as mentioned. Switched down to M1 Chart to see breakout from BLUE TL.. Stay Green {image}
Got in at 1.1723 with stop at 1.1760.
  • #31,197
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:30am Jul 31, 2018 8:30am
Quoting C-12
Damn, that was a nice fast collection of pips and exactly why we love EU. {image}

Nicely done its good to see another experienced trader posting M5 charts here

Posted elsewhere: "At 12:30 chart time ( 8:30 am NY ) there was a news driven VHV spike back up to that S&R zone which failed to breakout upwards.....I sold a few minutes later after the second attempt failed. OK its early, but its WHERE I have an S&R level and I'm only looking for 15 - 20 pips down to a POC level from today's earlier action...."

It turned out to be 25 - 30 pips.....back to my book
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #31,198
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:33am Jul 31, 2018 8:33am
Quoting danc
Well picked Moty,you hunted that one very well..lets hope the wind continu blow fairly..looking good.at mo..
thank you , my friend , looking good
key point is 1.16991
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #31,199
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:42am Jul 31, 2018 8:42am
Daily Outlook

Here I am watching: 1.1732..

Stay Green
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #31,200
  • Jul 31, 2018 8:46am Jul 31, 2018 8:46am
Quoting Moty
Still belive i short and for no breakout before tommorow and we have a lot of news today , its not over before i get even. {image} {image}
Hello Moty. I was checking the posts I didnīt see because I was sleeping , and in fact I believe your analysis was correct, every chart on your post was announcing a sell, at least because of the trend lines and the RSI Divergence that I didnīt see. And by now we are in a sell , at least a short sell but i believe we are going back all the way again, so I believe your analysis was correct, maybe you expect to act faster than the charts. One of the biggest things that I haved learned in trading and I have to say it hasnt been so long since that learning, is that the market likes to take his time to change directions. I work with the idea that market makers moves this charts, the big players that have many many many coins to play and manipulate prices to buy at the cheapest one and sell at wholeprices or viceversa, and I recently have seen and notice how they manipulate the market , and how they make one pair stay in a consolidation pattern for many days and months just to end their work of mopping up or down our precious positions .. and make the move. Patience my friend!! I am really starting to think that this capacity of wait, resist, tolerate etc , it has to be in every trading strategy...

We are in touch . Regards!
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