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EUR intrest rate statment

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 5, 2006 3:49am Oct 5, 2006 3:49am
Hello ..
I want to remind you guys about the EUR intest rate statment at 7:30 EST , and I wanna ask is about your thoughts and your trading idea about the statment thanks
  • #2
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:25am Oct 5, 2006 6:25am
the statement is at 7:45, you are 15 minutes early

i expect this one to be a market shocker! anytime there is speculation over rate hike or no rate hike it usually makes a big move. many people making predictions and positioning themselves based on prediction.

check out what investica had to say...
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8714
Relax and be happy.
  • #3
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:35am Oct 5, 2006 6:35am
im reading news on this statement and it looks like there is a sure expectation for a rate hike. does anyone know the "official" chances of a rate hike? is there a "fed funds futures" of europe you can look at?
Relax and be happy.
  • #4
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:48am Oct 5, 2006 6:48am
Quoting merlin
the statement is at 7:45, you are 15 minutes early

i expect this one to be a market shocker! anytime there is speculation over rate hike or no rate hike it usually makes a big move. many people making predictions and positioning themselves based on prediction.

check out what investica had to say...
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8714
Not much of shocker, but fading spikes in fiber in cable today should be a good bet, at least till tomorrow 8:30 EST
  • #5
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:51am Oct 5, 2006 6:51am
no not much of a shocker at all. i guess everyone was expecting the hike. i was under the impression that there were many who expected no hike. i guess not
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:55am Oct 5, 2006 6:55am
Quoting raczekfx
Not much of shocker, but fading spikes in fiber in cable today should be a good bet, at least till tomorrow 8:30 EST
I have found that Trichet does not like to surprise the market. Commerzbank said in a report that they expect hawkish statements in his speech to send the euro lower. I will be watching for that.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #7
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:57am Oct 5, 2006 6:57am
Quoting merlin
no not much of a shocker at all. i guess everyone was expecting the hike. i was under the impression that there were many who expected no hike. i guess not
Things aren't going according to my text book.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #8
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:01am Oct 5, 2006 7:01am
Quoting FXopportunist
I have found that Trichet does not like to surprise the market. Commerzbank said in a report that they expect hawkish statements in his speech to send the euro lower. I will be watching for that.
yeah the press conference at 8:30 will move the market for sure. if it doesnt, im going to have to reevaluate myself as a trader
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:02am Oct 5, 2006 7:02am
Does anybody know where we can obtain a transcript of Trichet's comments from the meeting like we can with Bernanke?
  • #10
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:11am Oct 5, 2006 7:11am
Quoting merlin
yeah the press conference at 8:30 will move the market for sure. if it doesnt, im going to have to reevaluate myself as a trader
LOL

We have been building a wedges on the major dollar crosses all week leading into non farm. I would not be shocked if the speech did not do a great deal.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #11
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:14am Oct 5, 2006 7:14am
The ECB should print it. The 25bp rate hike was fully priced in, so its all about the speech. A big question is what indications will be re the future outlook - will the ECB be tightening above 3.5% or is that likely to be the peak (ie one more hike). I think this statement will signal more tightening, but perhaps a slight nod to a move towards pausing thereafter.
"Always bet on black"
  • #12
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:16am Oct 5, 2006 7:16am
I too have been building a wedgie.
"Always bet on black"
  • #13
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:21am Oct 5, 2006 7:21am
Quality:

http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

Press conference live broadcast over the web.
"Always bet on black"
  • #14
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:23am Oct 5, 2006 7:23am
Sorry, but, wouldn't hawkish statements send the EUR higher? Hawkish statements imply an aggressiveness to contain inflation by raising rates.

Quoting FXopportunist
I have found that Trichet does not like to surprise the market. Commerzbank said in a report that they expect hawkish statements in his speech to send the euro lower. I will be watching for that.
  • #15
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:34am Oct 5, 2006 7:34am
Quoting stockwet
Sorry, but, wouldn't hawkish statements send the EUR higher? Hawkish statements imply an aggressiveness to contain inflation by raising rates.
Yeah I realized that after I typed it. Commerzbank was speaking in the context of Trichet's outlook on the USD.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #16
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:56am Oct 5, 2006 7:56am
Here is a peice of it:

we think there could be outsized market

reactions from any hint by Trichet that the US economic slowdown could

impact Europe and/or that EU indicators are show signs of peaking. In such a

scenario EUR/USD could challenge key support at 1.2625/30 – a break of

which threatens to set off a series of stops that could take the pair to

1.2550, even 1.2475 or 1.2340 in time.

Credit to Commerbank Daily Currency breifing
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #17
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:18am Oct 5, 2006 8:18am
Quoting raczekfx
Not much of shocker, but fading spikes in fiber in cable today should be a good bet, at least till tomorrow 8:30 EST
Isn't it sweet, when you do what you say you'll do and it works out
Faded 1.2720/25 spike (it just happened to be near 61fibo as well). quick 30
  • #18
  • Oct 5, 2006 12:18pm Oct 5, 2006 12:18pm
Quoting FXopportunist
Here is a peice of it:


we think there could be outsized market


reactions from any hint by Trichet that the US economic slowdown could

impact Europe and/or that EU indicators are show signs of peaking. In such a

scenario EUR/USD could challenge key support at 1.2625/30 – a break of

which threatens to set off a series of stops that could take the pair to

1.2550, even 1.2475 or 1.2340 in time.

Credit to Commerbank Daily Currency breifing



This doesn't make sense to me. How could a weakening U.S. economy STRENGTHEN the USD versus the EURO?

Am I missing something?
  • #19
  • Oct 5, 2006 1:56pm Oct 5, 2006 1:56pm
Quoting DePastino
This doesn't make sense to me. How could a weakening U.S. economy STRENGTHEN the USD versus the EURO?

Am I missing something?
Here is the complete article. It may help.




The EUR view:

While we continue to believe weaker US data has the


hand in being a more sustainable force to drive the dollar, today’s ECB

conference represents a not insignificant downside event risk for EUR/

After delivering the expected 25 bps rate rise to 3.25%, markets

primed for a hawkish Trichet and standard phrases at such times.

stress the need to “monitor very closely” price stability risks and will

out the likelihood of further withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation

ECB baselines scenarios pan out. Given these expectations and

withstanding the fact that markets have been skeptical of an even

hawkish sounding ECB of late, we think there could be outsized

reactions from any hint by Trichet that the US economic slowdown

impact Europe and/or that EU indicators are show signs of peaking. In

scenario EUR/USD could challenge key support at 1.2625/30 – a break

which threatens to set off a series of stops that could take the

1.2550, even 1.2475 or 1.2340 in time – such is the long nature

market. We do not see such a move as being sustainable and would

re-establish EUR longs in what would be a less one-sided market and

data weakens towards the year-end. The possibility that the US economy

receives a shot in the arm from the decline in energy prices, higher

and low bond (mortgage) yields has the capacity to lengthen the period

the aforementioned dollar rebound.






GBP

Today’s MPC meeting will be a non-event, but inflation continues


face upside risks from tuition fees, while money supply and housing

strong. We continue to expect a 25 bp hike in November, which should

limit any sell-off in GBP today after the confirmation of steady rates.

said, GBP/USD could be vulnerable to broader USD strength should

give any indication the ECB is more conscious of the US slowdown.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #20
  • Oct 5, 2006 2:18pm Oct 5, 2006 2:18pm
Thanks FXopp, though I'm still not sure about the logic.

Weaker economy = stronger currency



I begin to see why the failure rate for forex traders is so high.
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