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Systematic Trend Trading

  • #221
  • Jul 8, 2018 6:50am Jul 8, 2018 6:50am
Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #222
  • Jul 13, 2018 7:20am Jul 13, 2018 7:20am
trade 119 +10R, trade 120 +11R

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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tradewith60
  • #223
  • Jul 13, 2018 7:21am Jul 13, 2018 7:21am
Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
tradewith60
  • #224
  • Jul 13, 2018 8:18am Jul 13, 2018 8:18am
Quoting 60minuteman
Results: Week 1 +4R Week 2 -14R Week 3 -2R Week 4 -3R Week 5 +3R Week 6 +4R Week 7 -7R Week 8 -10R Week 9 -4R Week 10 -13 Week 11 +21
Coming back strong 60 :-)
  • #225
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:43am Jul 15, 2018 2:43am
I admire your ability to stay faithful to your system, I would have cheated on it if I see 11 week >20R drawdown

I currently tinkering with a strategy with similar low winrate style

My question, if you don't mind, what's your risk per trade in percentage of account, I reckon 2% is still too big for this style, maybe 1%? any expected winrate? expected max drawdown?


Regards, Dan
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #226
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:32am Jul 18, 2018 10:32am
Quoting danzka
I admire your ability to stay faithful to your system, I would have cheated on it if I see 11 week >20R drawdown I currently tinkering with a strategy with similar low winrate style My question, if you don't mind, what's your risk per trade in percentage of account, I reckon 2% is still too big for this style, maybe 1%? any expected winrate? expected max drawdown? Regards, Dan
The risk % there is no right answer really, risk less for safety, risk more for massive returns. Personally with such an extreme example here I would go less than 1%, 50% drawdowns are common.

When it comes to risk I love this quote the most "the biggest risk to a trader is having a losing strategy and believing you have a winning strategy"
tradewith60
  • #227
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:33am Jul 18, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Coming back strong 60 :-)
Yes, going to be a long haul this one... and really they all are.
tradewith60
  • #228
  • Jul 20, 2018 9:31am Jul 20, 2018 9:31am
Quoting California
60 Are you able to upload your R level indicator?
https://www.tradingheroes.com/risk-r...io-calculator/
  • #229
  • Jul 20, 2018 9:38am Jul 20, 2018 9:38am
LO-Trader: Thank you for taking the time to point this out! California.
  • #230
  • Jul 27, 2018 1:22am Jul 27, 2018 1:22am
Skip all your technical analysis books and webinars, everything you need to know is in this amazing story

http://www.nicolasdarvas.org/
tradewith60
  • #231
  • Jul 30, 2018 10:12am Jul 30, 2018 10:12am
Back from holiday and back to trading

Trade 121 EJ short

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tradewith60
  • #232
  • Jul 30, 2018 10:48am Jul 30, 2018 10:48am
“If you learn to control your ego, you can pick strategies that scare off the people who fear embarrassment. And if you stay in the game long enough, luck has a better chance of finding you.”
tradewith60
  • #233
  • Jul 30, 2018 11:24pm Jul 30, 2018 11:24pm
Still reading through the ebook you posted, 60! Thanks for that.

Just wondered, this week is a very very heavy week news-wise. Something coming basically everyday (including big news from the BOJ today), Bank of England tomorrow and Fed news later. Will you trade exactly the same way this week?
  • #234
  • Jul 31, 2018 1:43am Jul 31, 2018 1:43am
Quoting Alseonbang
Still reading through the ebook you posted, 60! Thanks for that. Just wondered, this week is a very very heavy week news-wise. Something coming basically everyday (including big news from the BOJ today), Bank of England tomorrow and Fed news later. Will you trade exactly the same way this week?
Hi Alseonbang. I don't make any changes to the model for news. This system is based purely on fat tails, you grind out the model until you get favourable market conditions and the probabilities are you make money over the long run. I could sit in drawdown for 6months or even have a losing year but over 5-7 years the probability of massive gains is high. The only essential part this is missing is diversification but I am achieving that with other trades that are not being posted here.
tradewith60
  • #235
  • Jul 31, 2018 1:45am Jul 31, 2018 1:45am
I have folders full of back tests on systems like this and they all say the same thing

“If you want more predictability in the short-term, you have to learn to live with lower long-term returns. And if you want higher long-term expected returns, you have to learn to live with more volatility in the short-term.”

Here's a commodities test with this system, you want bigger returns then get comfortable with more volatility

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tradewith60
  • #236
  • Jul 31, 2018 1:58am Jul 31, 2018 1:58am
Wrong mindset.

Everyone thinks trading success comes from 10,000 hours but in reality it comes from 10,000 trades. Everyone eventually put's in their 10,000 hours but most will never make any money, very few can get past 100 trades before throwing in the towel. Real robust edges are slim and probably getting slimmer as skill levels and competition increase, slim edges require longer time horizons to pay off.
tradewith60
  • #237
  • Jul 31, 2018 3:09am Jul 31, 2018 3:09am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Hi Alseonbang. I don't make any changes to the model for news. This system is based purely on fat tails, you grind out the model until you get favourable market conditions and the probabilities are you make money over the long run. I could sit in drawdown for 6months or even have a losing year but over 5-7 years the probability of massive gains is high. The only essential part this is missing is diversification but I am achieving that with other trades that are not being posted here.
Ah k thanks for explaining. When you say the 'essential part' which is missing, does that mean this system won't profit unless there is diversification? I was hoping that just following this simple system would lad to big profits?
  • #238
  • Jul 31, 2018 6:32am Jul 31, 2018 6:32am
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} Ah k thanks for explaining. When you say the 'essential part' which is missing, does that mean this system won't profit unless there is diversification? I was hoping that just following this simple system would lad to big profits?
Diversification just gives more risk control, you could run it on a single pair but it would be ignoring a very simple way of increasing your probabilities. It's fairly hard to find uncorrelated instruments in forex only but even if you ran it on 2 or 3 it would be worthwhile.
tradewith60
  • #239
  • Jul 31, 2018 5:04pm Jul 31, 2018 5:04pm
Attached Image
tradewith60
  • #240
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:33pm Jul 31, 2018 11:33pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Hi Alseonbang. I don't make any changes to the model for news. This system is based purely on fat tails, you grind out the model until you get favourable market conditions and the probabilities are you make money over the long run. I could sit in drawdown for 6months or even have a losing year but over 5-7 years the probability of massive gains is high. The only essential part this is missing is diversification but I am achieving that with other trades that are not being posted here.
Really like that statement, the only thing consistent in the market is that fat tails
All of the greatest most popular investor/trader all swear by using good Risk Reward ratio, Warren Buffet, Soros, Livermore, Tudor Jones, Turtle Trader etc etc
which to me it translates as when you almost accidentally get into a good move (ie fat tailed) that's when the money is made
I say almost accidentally because the probability of you got it right is just about 50% over the long run
Also I have to say don't get discouraged when you got long period of drawdown or lots of consecutive losing trade because probability distribution is far from perfect
50% winrate doesn't translate into 1 win after 1 loss, it can be 3 win followed by 7 losses the 4 win then 10 losses then 10 wins etc
try browsing around poker forum and video they talk more about probability
I seriously think they worship some probability god
here in FF its all about perfect entry lol

sorry for ranting in your journal 60M, if you want to delete it just tell me.

Regards, Dan
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
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