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Attachments: Systematic Trend Trading
Exit Attachments

Systematic Trend Trading

Quoting danzka
{quote} Really like that statement, the only thing consistent in the market is that fat tails All of the greatest most popular investor/trader all swear by using good Risk Reward ratio, Warren Buffet, Soros, Livermore, Tudor Jones, Turtle Trader etc etc which to me it translates as when you almost accidentally get into a good move (ie fat tailed) that's when the money is made I say almost accidentally because the probability of you got it right is just about 50% over the long run Also I have to say don't get discouraged when you got long period...
Hi Dan, thank's for the post, it is completely inline with my view of the market. These are the high probability facts.
tradewith60
'Most people do not want to reach outside their knowledge area (or comfort zone). What most people want (at often the expense of their best interest) is their own little kingdom. Not a good way to be if you desire to profit from the market.'
tradewith60
https://www.rooster360.com/random-pr...-peterlbrandt/
tradewith60
Inserted Video
tradewith60
One of the easiest ways for discretionary traders to improve their trading is to develop some systematic strategies that make profit
tradewith60
Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
Week 12 +6
tradewith60
MT4 died on me this week.

121 stopped

122 & 123 +2R and +5R - Had to bail on these until I got my platform working properly, here are the trades

Trade 124 EJ short still running

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tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
Skip all your technical analysis books and webinars, everything you need to know is in this amazing story http://www.nicolasdarvas.org/
Where have you been all these yrs, 60? i read this book 25 yrs ago!

I am watching your progress with this "Big R strategy" with interest. Keep up the great work
Quoting California
{quote} Where have you been all these yrs, 60? i read this book 25 yrs ago! I am watching your progress with this "Big R strategy" with interest. Keep up the great work
It's such a great story, glad to have you here Cali'
tradewith60
Jim O'Shaughnessy Retweeted ShadowStock

"And almost everyone reacts to everything the same way at the same time. Don't be "everyone" Arbitrage human behavior.

The final edge in markets."
tradewith60
I am on Walt's mailing list and received an email about a trader who took a system w/ little to no edge and by varying the exits turned an ever-so slightly profitable system into something much more than that. The takeaway was that it is not about the entries, it is about the exits. This came just as I was wondering how the Type 2 or engulf entry would fare w/ your exits.
Quoting California
I am on Walt's mailing list and received an email about a trader who took a system w/ little to no edge and by varying the exits turned an ever-so slightly profitable system into something much more than that. The takeaway was that it is not about the entries, it is about the exits. This came just as I was wondering how the Type 2 or engulf entry would fare w/ your exits.
Most entry systems tend to be the same thing with different wrapping, I would be hard to convince that most, if not all could not be improved by taking exits that are just a bit more uncomfortable. The whole entry system obsession has no real evidence to back it up or at least I have never seen any.
tradewith60
I have heard it said that one could take any system, no matter how unprofitable, and make it profitable just by changing the money mgt. One look no further than FF's member Ronald Raygun, who, on his member profile, claims to be able to double his money by flipping a coin -- heads long, tails short -- with as few as 20-30 flips. https://www.forexfactory.com/ronald*raygun
Here is a test for random trends.

A coin was tossed to decide the trend, if it was long the first bullish H1 bar after London open would have a buy order at the high and a stop at the low.

If it triggered you would hold it for 5R, if it triggered and stopped out you would repeat on the next bullish closed H1 bar.

The next day the system was repeated.

The test was run 10 times. The worst return was 215% the best return was 614%.

People get confused by these tests because they think it means trade randomly or that entries do not matter. What they do tell us is that high RR may be a strong edge and that you should expect variance in results.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1628715614

Here is the same test with technical analysis of the trend - simple moving average (5R is the runs you are looking for)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1703615056

Didn't really perform any better than the random trend version.

and the same test again with a simple 3 bar trailing stop

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=353263111
tradewith60
It was int'g to see that in each case the win rate was about 1%-2% > the breakeven win rate. So the tests are saying 1) there is a difference when using different exit methods b/c the 5R test produced a bigger gain and lower DD using 3-bar trailer vs. a simple ma, and 2) a larger R multiple is the way to go, if you can stomach the lower win rate.
Quoting California
It was int'g to see that in each case the win rate was about 1%-2% > the breakeven win rate. So the tests are saying 1) there is a difference when using different exit methods b/c the 5R test produced a bigger gain and lower DD using 3-bar trailer vs. a simple ma, and 2) a larger R multiple is the way to go, if you can stomach the lower win rate.
Exactly Cali. Also important to realise that if you must have a high win rate and low drawdowns, you're not going to generate impressive returns just by tweaking the technical elements. I have more tests where we swapped for popular price action entries and any improvement on accuracy was trumped by a large increase of missed opportunities. (Those sweet looking pin bar entries are only sweet because they stand out visually)
tradewith60
60: i emailed you at the talktalk.net address. Not sure if that is still valid
trade 124 +4R

Trade 125 EJ short

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tradewith60
"Follow the trend. If there is high subjective uncertainty, follow the market trends that serve as a weighted average of investor opinions. You will be subject to reversals, but trend-following with some form of stop risk management creates option-like pay-offs that may serve investors well. This strategy should be tied with diversification."
tradewith60
Trade 125 & 126 stopped

Trade 127 EJ long

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tradewith60
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