Menu
Sister Sites

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Systematic trading 1,575 replies

Trade another day through Systematic Trading 203 replies

Nonparametric Association Measures in Systematic Trading 57 replies

A Systematic Approach to Markets 68 replies

Systematic Trading vs. Discretionary Trading 14 replies

Attachments: Systematic Trend Trading
Exit Attachments

Systematic Trend Trading

Trade 150,151,152 stopped

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-24 at 21.50.09.png Size: 30 KB


Trade 153,154,155 stopped - 156,157,158 still open

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-24 at 21.50.30.png Size: 35 KB
tradewith60
Results:
Week 1 +4R
Week 2 -14R
Week 3 -2R
Week 4 -3R
Week 5 +3R
Week 6 +4R
Week 7 -7R
Week 8 -10R
Week 9 -4R
Week 10 -13
Week 11 +21
Week 12 +6
Week 13 +14R
Week 14 -3R
Week 15 +15R
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
Results: Week 1 +4R Week 2 -14R Week 3 -2R Week 4 -3R Week 5 +3R Week 6 +4R Week 7 -7R Week 8 -10R Week 9 -4R Week 10 -13 Week 11 +21 Week 12 +6 Week 13 +14R Week 14 -3R Week 15 +15R

I calculate +11R for the 15 weeks so far - excellent stuff. If R is 1% and you can repeat this return for the rest of the year then you will be smashing it. Well done!
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Hi Alseonbang, thank's for the reply. He trades on a very long timeframe (in terms of holding periods) and there is a lot of evidence to suggest that is a more robust way to trade, we also have to take into account he is being driven partly by giving his customers what they want - more volatility in returns will be more profitable but investors in funds tend to withdraw their money when the drawdowns get too much (even if they are in line with expected performance). His fund have clearly set out their goals are to make a lot of money over...

Thanks 60! I think 1% per trade is all I could stomach with this kind of trading. If I was down 20% in a week I don't think I would have the mental fortitude to stick to the system and not change anything. The other consideration you mentioned - extended periods of undesirable market behaviour - is something we have no control over really so I suppose we just have to believe in the system unquestionable and bear the drawdown with the confidence that overall we can make profit long term.
It seems hard to believe that a simple rule (i.e. “buy cheap stocks”) can outperform the complex processing power of the human mind, but the evidence suggests that this is true in investing. Though we think we can outsmart such simplistic investment notions, chances are we cannot.

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/stay-on-script/
tradewith60
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} Thanks 60! I think 1% per trade is all I could stomach with this kind of trading. If I was down 20% in a week I don't think I would have the mental fortitude to stick to the system and not change anything. The other consideration you mentioned - extended periods of undesirable market behaviour - is something we have no control over really so I suppose we just have to believe in the system unquestionable and bear the drawdown with the confidence that overall we can make profit long term.
I agree, and there is nothing wrong with trading less than 1%. When you break it down our system should be based on more data than any other information we have - and if you can not believe in data then you are lost. It is clearly difficult for people though based on the popularity of discretion based systems, which by their nature are mainly based on small samples of recent data.
tradewith60
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} I calculate +11R for the 15 weeks so far - excellent stuff. If R is 1% and you can repeat this return for the rest of the year then you will be smashing it. Well done!
Yeah shame I went straight into a drawdown, but it makes for a good example of what's required.
tradewith60
Im following the trading myths thread on the main forum, I can't comment because I am a commercial member. What puzzles me is why so many traders don't take note of evidence. When you find and study the group of traders with the best long term track records you can learn all you need to learn. Instead they all seem intent on listening to the retail crowd when we know that they make up the majority of the losing traders. What do the traders who have beaten the markets for 20,30 years have in common, what message do they give when asked how to be profitable, you find their messages are all very similar and very often at odds with the techniques and tools of the retail crowd. Who are you going to believe?
We know there must be edges to exploit, not 100% but there are a lot of traders who have consistently made very large returns. Listen to them and more importantly take onboard their advice - don't try and short-cut it with the ideas of the inexperienced.
tradewith60
Attached Image
tradewith60
Inserted Video
tradewith60
Learn from people like Nick Radge, forget learning from retail traders (I include myself in that.)

The vast majority trade very simply with good risk control and most importantly they are patient and accept they have losing periods.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 09.27.03.png Size: 122 KB


....and you never once hear them banging on about predicting or reading the market.
tradewith60
EJ in a pay cycle right now, including open positions +80R in the last 6 weeks

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 13.05.57.png Size: 62 KB
tradewith60
You cannot have more reward without taking on more risk

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/what-will-always-be-true/
tradewith60
Very impressive. Can I ask what percent your R is? 80R is immense!

I've been following the approach and applying to my style of trading which is almost the same except I try to take 1 hour closes that are above or below a 4H support and resistance line (regardless of candlestick pattern). I've been doing this for the EJ and GU and am up about 6% in 6 weeks due to a few 5R wins. I moved to break even at 2R and trailed from 3R as you suggested - then closed out at 5R. R was always 1%.

I'm based in Seoul which is much cheaper than London to live in so hopefully with a few months more practise I can start trying this with a bigger account and who knows, maybe the profits will cover my Korean bbq addiction.
Quoting Alseonbang
Very impressive. Can I ask what percent your R is? 80R is immense! I've been following the approach and applying to my style of trading which is almost the same except I try to take 1 hour closes that are above or below a 4H support and resistance line (regardless of candlestick pattern). I've been doing this for the EJ and GU and am up about 6% in 6 weeks due to a few 5R wins. I moved to break even at 2R and trailed from 3R as you suggested - then closed out at 5R. R was always 1%. I'm based in Seoul which is much cheaper than London to live in...
I bloody love Korean BBQ, if you're ever in Bangkok that's where you will find me (if i'm not in a sushi restaurant). Your entry model sound's good and it's your own more importantly - a simple momentum breakout is a good and proven system.
You will maintain a nice high RR with your management and again you give yourself the opportunity of good luck - this would likely be improved with removing the hard exit completely, just keep trailing. something worth looking at. You're not pushing your RR to any extremes so your drawdowns shouldn't be as extreme and you can adjust position size accordingly. As with any system your success will be determined largely by sticking with it through the inevitable bad periods and your execution - it sounds like you have made it simple and that is a really good idea.

With regard my 80R it does sound immense but my extreme targets generate a lot of drawdown so I trade much less than 1% - the probabilities for a decent %age return over a year are high so I use that with compounding and a very long term view to get me where I want to be. I could take on more risk and just go for an insane 1 year pay off but i'm not in a rush.
tradewith60
Why you should always set position size conservatively.

Here is a fixed 50% win rate system with 1/1 RR, the run was repeated 10 times over 4000 trades.

*thanks to Rivo for the data

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-28 at 15.37.34.png Size: 191 KB
tradewith60
Starting by pruning away at what is unimportant is how you discipline yourself to see behind the fog created by the inessential. That’s when you’ll find the foundation you are looking for.

https://qz.com/1365059/a-universal-w...atical-genius/
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I bloody love Korean BBQ, if you're ever in Bangkok that's where you will find me (if i'm not in a sushi restaurant). Your entry model sound's good and it's your own more importantly - a simple momentum breakout is a good and proven system. You will maintain a nice high RR with your management and again you give yourself the opportunity of good luck - this would likely be improved with removing the hard exit completely, just keep trailing. something worth looking at. You're not pushing your RR to any extremes so your drawdowns shouldn't...
You sound like a doctor giving me back my blood test results! Thank you! It's reassuring what you said about my entry and I've been thinking about removing the hard exit but I don't have a fixed method of trailing my stop and so I think could be my downfall. At the moment I just try to trail it behind the previous swing low or 2 swings behind the current price. I'll give it a go despite the urge to take profit at 5R.

Swing by Seoul if you can I know the best places in town for bbq!
Quoting Alseonbang
{quote} You sound like a doctor giving me back my blood test results! Thank you! It's reassuring what you said about my entry and I've been thinking about removing the hard exit but I don't have a fixed method of trailing my stop and so I think could be my downfall. At the moment I just try to trail it behind the previous swing low or 2 swings behind the current price. I'll give it a go despite the urge to take profit at 5R. Swing by Seoul if you can I know the best places in town for bbq!
I presume you picked 5R as the hard exit for a reason, i.e in testing it showed good results. If you repeated the exercise but at 5R you trailed a stop loss by 1R what would your results look like?
What you are likely to discover is that you catch a lot of trades that blast through your target and your average RR and profit increases. You only see this effect over longer samples of trades. What you are actually doing is risking 1R of your 5R win on a new trade - and it increases your opportunity of good luck.

If you have some time I suggest reading some of Michael Mauboussins books about skill and luck.
tradewith60
Trade 156 +7R
Trade 157 +6R
Trade 158 +6R
Trade 159, 160, 161 stopped

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2018-08-29 at 11.41.26.png Size: 46 KB
tradewith60
0 traders viewing now