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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #5,881
  • Edited 12:20pm Jul 18, 2018 11:02am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting Humbucker
EUR/AUD M5 Entry on break of support as SS turned negative. Watched it grind down all day then move against me, get stopped out by 1 pip, then it went parabolic and would have made me some pips. Stop too tight? {image}
Hi Humbucker,

I am far from an expert in M5 PASR, but I will chip in according to my understanding so far (part of my learning process).

Below is the chart which I think you see when you placed the sell.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDM5.png Size: 60 KB


1) There is no trend established before your trade. The saw-tooth structure was also not ideal, we see a lot of whipsaws going nowhere.
2) Did I mark your entry candle correctly? To me, that is an aggressive entry with no confirmation of Strat Shadow being formed.
3) Personally, I will never want to sell after seeing all the beautiful trending green candles. I have found their rate of success to be lower.
4) If you are selling because you think the upper time frames are with you, then I would have put my SL on step higher. Much safer IMO.
EDIT: 5) I will never want to sell into 200ema on lower time frames. It is the area where price will do funny things.

Of course, it is easier to comment after the trade has occurred. As traders, we really need to just take the most probable trade, and not enter a trade because we want to (GREED).
  • #5,882
  • Jul 18, 2018 11:08am Jul 18, 2018 11:08am
Quoting darko2010
Psychology, Psychology, Psychology Strat said that he would make me a trader even if it was the last thing he did. I was probably the least able person on FF to accept what he was willing to give. Whoever reads this and wants to move on to some other thread which offers a magical solution with pivots and indicators, don't. Stay here, do the work, don't be afraid to ask if you haven't found an answer here (I doubt it though). This is by far the most benevolent group I could have hoped for with the most amazing mentor I could have asked for. Not what...
F***!!

I've sat through the same session as you and not even been close to spotting any of these! (Except maybe EJ)
  • #5,883
  • Jul 18, 2018 11:10am Jul 18, 2018 11:10am
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Humbucker, I am far from an expert in M5 PASR, but I will chip in according to my understanding so far (part of my learning process). Below is the chart which I think you see when you placed the sell. {image} 1) There is no trend established before your trade. The saw-tooth structure was also not ideal, we see a lot of whipsaws going nowhere. 2) Did I mark your entry candle correctly? To me, that is an aggressive entry with no confirmation of Strat Shadow being formed. 3) Personally, I will never want to sell after seeing all the beautiful...
Definitely very aggressive - I think I've been dazzled by Yomi.

As for the trend, yes in hindsight it's no good: At the time I was seeing a nice, even downward trend from the top of that large run-up plus the switch of the SS. I've actually never traded that signal (switch of SS) before. It's the breakout short that i liked.
  • #5,884
  • Jul 18, 2018 11:15am Jul 18, 2018 11:15am
Quoting Humbucker
{quote} F***!! I've sat through the same session as you and not even been close to spotting any of these! (Except maybe EJ)
I am starting to understand that trading is about two complementary yet contradictory things:
- the Patience to wait for the right moment
- the Speed at which you need to take the decision

If you are a gamer, this is the same logic with different rules
  • #5,885
  • Jul 18, 2018 12:17pm Jul 18, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I am starting to understand that trading is about two complementary yet contradictory things: - the Patience to wait for the right moment - the Speed at which you need to take the decision If you are a gamer, this is the same logic with different rules
Yes trading is full of paradoxes. It is one more step closer to being a profitable trader if you realise this.

Read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. It will help you understand trading psychology.
  • #5,886
  • Jul 18, 2018 12:23pm Jul 18, 2018 12:23pm
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Yes trading is full of paradoxes. It is one more step closer to being a profitable trader if you realise this. Read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. It will help you understand trading psychology.
Thanks MikuSS, I have read TITZ but Strat already said everything there is to say on the matter. It all comes down to psychology and re-wiring your trading brain.
  • #5,887
  • Jul 18, 2018 2:41pm Jul 18, 2018 2:41pm
Strange - I found TITZ to be full of lame, tedious anecdotes and tired pop-culture references. Never saw why so many people rate it so highly. But then i'm a scientist and my view of what constitutes an -ology (in this case, psychology) is different to most.
  • #5,888
  • Jul 18, 2018 3:01pm Jul 18, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting Humbucker
Strange - I found TITZ to be full of lame, tedious anecdotes and tired pop-culture references. Never saw why so many people rate it so highly. But then i'm a scientist and my view of what constitutes an -ology (in this case, psychology) is different to most.
Repetition is one way to reprogram your subconscious. It does the job for some, others need another approach
  • #5,889
  • Edited 2:03am Jul 19, 2018 1:38am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting strat
NZDUSD H1 {quote} Brian, in addition to the very valuable comments from Darko and Samson: Have another look at your Set Up candle. The long wick and body with a short tail is NOT a candle to initiate trades on. Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference. Now look at the PRICE structure from the bottom. Look at those 2 LARGE green candles in the black box. Those candles are telling you there are BUYERS buying at that PRICE level. Then look at what PRICE does...
Hi, Strat

The long wick and body with a short tail is NOT a candle to initiate trades on.
Why? My understand is the long wick means the power of seller is larger than the buyer's, and the short tail means the power of buyer is smaller, right?

"PASR always WAITS for the Big Boys to SHOW us the direction they are taking PRICE. We WAIT to FOLLOW in the FOOTSTEPS of the Big Boys." and that is a BEEB at the Resistance. So I think the Big Boys show me the direction and that can be as a signal candle.

Can you explain more about this?

Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference.
I think the difference is not just "the candle have almost no wick on both sides". It is the following candle which is big bear candle too, right?

any comment is welcome.

thank you for your detailed analysis

regards

Cj
Don't Rush Things, Be PATIENT and Wait For the Best Trade Setup
  • #5,890
  • Jul 19, 2018 2:34am Jul 19, 2018 2:34am
1.20?
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  • #5,891
  • Jul 19, 2018 2:55am Jul 19, 2018 2:55am
This month has been a hard one to trade for me, with one week left I'm on track to eck out a very modest profit with a bunch of break even trades and a couple of losers. Most annoying is I closed all my trades after the first week after I had a floating profit of double my initial account, mostly from long trades against the yen.

I have uploaded my EUR/JPY trade as an example. My initial target was the top of the WCC for ~200 pips. As you can see it would've hit it, and there were a couple of places I could've added on. You can also see where I packed it in. Bearing in mind this wasn't the only trade, the thought of giving back all the profits I had floating got to me and I closed all of them. Since then I have had 3 losses, and 2 break even trades, no profitable ones. After the last couple of months doing reasonably well too!

That said, I am ok with taking the losses, and I have faith that I will be profitable overall. Just at this point in time I am not doing so well, mostly because I am not making the correct decisions in line with my trading plan. Recognizing the problem it the big step toward solving it.

So, I am thinking of taking the remainder of the month off and starting again next month. My immoderate aim is to be profitable for 3 months in a row, as a sign that I'm getting it. From there I see it as a matter of gradually expanding my repertoire of skills that are profitable, from trend PSAR to basic and swing PASR.

As a side note, I'm reading Scott Adams's (creator of dilbert) book how to fail at everything and still win big. It's an interesting read, and he focuses on systems over goals. Part of why he thinks he's been successful is he has failed over and over, but each time took something from that failure, and every time he's known that it's better to cut the loss, move onto the next venture, and have another chance at success.
Quite a thought provoking read.

Reading back over that there a lot of I and me. I'm awesome but the rest of you count too!
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  • #5,892
  • Jul 19, 2018 4:53am Jul 19, 2018 4:53am
EURUSD - Stuck between a rock and the Boss EMA 200

When an irresistible force meets an unmovable object... for now
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  • #5,893
  • Jul 19, 2018 6:24am Jul 19, 2018 6:24am
"The US dollar is extending its recent gains against most of the world's currencies. We continue to see the most compelling case for the macro driver being the diverging policy mixes. There are also more immediate factors too. The surprisingly poor UK retail sales report, for example, managed to do what the Brexit chaos and softer than expected CPI fail to do. Namely, push sterling below $1.30 for the first time since last September. Sterling fell about $1.2985. The battle for $1.30 continue, and there is a large GBP2 bln option there that is expiring today."
  • #5,894
  • Jul 19, 2018 7:27am Jul 19, 2018 7:27am
Quoting Rub
This month has been a hard one to trade for me, with one week left I'm on track to eck out a very modest profit with a bunch of break even trades and a couple of losers. Most annoying is I closed all my trades after the first week after I had a floating profit of double my initial account, mostly from long trades against the yen. I have uploaded my EUR/JPY trade as an example. My initial target was the top of the WCC for ~200 pips. As you can see it would've hit it, and there were a couple of places I could've added on. You can also see where I...
Hey Rub

I note a few thumbs up on your post so my response may not be agreed upon by all. I'm also not a profitable trader of PASR myself, but I'm wondering about your idea of stopping early for the month.

Some questions:

 

  1. Can you see any parallels between getting out of the month early to protect profits and getting out of trades early to protect profits?
  2. Do you think there are any lessons you may learn by trading out the month that you will miss out on by stopping for the month?
  3. When will you learn these lessons? Will you stop early next month if the same situation occurs? (And put them off for a further month?)
  4. If you do this 3 months in a row will you consider this a success?
  5. Are you getting out for the month so you can show an up month (ie because having an up month is more important than learning PASR?).
  6. Are you trading PASR or are you trading your P&L?


In short, I wonder if the place you are in is all part of learning to trade, and you need to work through it.

  • #5,895
  • Jul 19, 2018 2:54pm Jul 19, 2018 2:54pm
Closed my Basic PASR trade on gold. Entered below SS and closed the trade today after price hit a support level. Added on while I was monitoring the trade on lower timeframes as well. Seems to have worked out well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,896
  • Edited 6:17pm Jul 19, 2018 5:20pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting MikuSS
{quote} Hi Humbucker, I am far from an expert in M5 PASR, but I will chip in according to my understanding so far (part of my learning process). Below is the chart which I think you see when you placed the sell. {image} 1) There is no trend established before your trade. The saw-tooth structure was also not ideal, we see a lot of whipsaws going nowhere. 2) Did I mark your entry candle correctly? To me, that is an aggressive entry with no confirmation of Strat Shadow being formed. 3) Personally, I will never want to sell after seeing all the beautiful...
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Miku.
I am looking at using lower time frame with the smallest size to practice my sense of PASR.
Did one practice yesterday with M5 but failed. I planned to take profit in the first resistance line but didn't make it. I got out because I was scared to lose my profit.
It is a profitable trade from the account but it is a fail trade in terms of trading psychology.
I found you are quite good with M5. How do you keep your patience? Or I should ask how did it take you to get rid of fear?
Thank you
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,897
  • Edited 2:00am Jul 20, 2018 1:31am | Edited 2:00am
Hey Rub

I note a few thumbs up on your post so my response may not be agreed upon by all. I'm also not a profitable trader of PASR myself, but I'm wondering about your idea of stopping early for the month.

Some questions:

 

  1. Can you see any parallels between getting out of the month early to protect profits and getting out of trades early to protect profits? Yes, I can see a parallel.
  2. Do you think there are any lessons you may learn by trading out the month that you will miss out on by stopping for the month? Not off the top of my head, but most of the pairs I watch are in a WCC and sometimes time away can clear you head.
  3. When will you learn these lessons? Will you stop early next month if the same situation occurs? (And put them off for a further month?) I have to learn the lesson eventually, at some point I have to tackle them and overcome them.
  4. If you do this 3 months in a row will you consider this a success? Not quite sure what you're referring to here, but my initial goal is to be profitable for 3 months in a row, at which point I have given myself permission to fund a larger account and trade 2% max of that account, to gradually work my way to trading the funds I have available.
  5. Are you getting out for the month so you can show an up month (ie because having an up month is more important than learning PASR?). This is an excellent question. Thinking about it, it's quite likely, even if I'm not consciously thinking that way. Definitely be having a mull over this on the weekend.
  6. Are you trading PASR or are you trading your P&L? PASR, even if I keep mistaking stuff for actual valid PASR!


In short, I wonder if the place you are in is all part of learning to trade, and you need to work through it

Some good questions for me there, appreciate the feedback, especially as it's given me something to think about.


Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Miku. I am looking at using lower time frame with the smallest size to practice my sense of PASR. Did one practice yesterday with M5 but failed. I planned to take profit in the first resistance line but didn't make it. I got out because I was scared to lose my profit. It is a profitable trade from the account but it is a fail trade in terms of trading psychology. I found you are quite good with M5. How do you keep your patience? Or I should ask how did it take you to get rid of fear? Thank you
I have a couple of suggestions, first of which is to have a take profit at the first resistance or support untill you are comfortable you're getting there consistantly, then start targeting further as strat says several times in the old thread (e.g. post 7572 mentions it). Second, if you're using metatrader you can scroll back on the chart on the weekend and use the F12 (I think) key to step forward once candle at a time. Note when you see a candle you think is good price action and see how it followed through. I did this to help get the "feel" of good candles. Try doing it only in the direction of the trend.
  • #5,898
  • Jul 20, 2018 3:03am Jul 20, 2018 3:03am
Quoting Rub
Hey Rub I note a few thumbs up on your post so my response may not be agreed upon by all. I'm also not a profitable trader of PASR myself, but I'm wondering about your idea of stopping early for the month. Some questions: Can you see any parallels between getting out of the month early to protect profits and getting out of trades early to protect profits? Yes, I can see a parallel. Do you think there are any lessons you may learn by trading out the month that you will miss out on by stopping for the month? Not off the top of my head, but most of...
Hi Rub,

Just an observation here and may not be something you want to explore further but thought I'd throw it out there.
You said in your reply "Not off the top of my head, but most of the pairs I watch are in a WCC and sometimes time away can clear you head."

Have you tried trading using basic PASR to trade up and down with the WCCs?
Just small positions to keep you trading and looking out for PASR opportunities. Time in the market and actually being in trades to experience what happenes I've found is key to learning. I've had some good trades with WCC pairs and tend to take a look at these more closely on lower timeframes when they are approaching their tops and bottoms to see if PA occurs.
Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #5,899
  • Jul 20, 2018 3:15am Jul 20, 2018 3:15am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Rub, Just an observation here and may not be something you want to explore further but thought I'd throw it out there. You said in your reply "Not off the top of my head, but most of the pairs I watch are in a WCC and sometimes time away can clear you head." Have you tried trading using basic PASR to trade up and down with the WCCs? Just small positions to keep you trading and looking out for PASR opportunities. Time in the market and actually being in trades to experience what happenes I've found is key to learning. I've had some good...
I've considered it, for example I've got GBP/NZD in a WCC for 31(!) weeks. Been struggling to find good price action to trade the boundaries with confidence though. The EUR/JPY example I posted recently I traded from the middle up, but didn't hold to the top. Perhaps scaling in would help.
  • #5,900
  • Jul 20, 2018 3:37am Jul 20, 2018 3:37am
Quoting Victoria2017
{quote} Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Miku. I am looking at using lower time frame with the smallest size to practice my sense of PASR. Did one practice yesterday with M5 but failed. I planned to take profit in the first resistance line but didn't make it. I got out because I was scared to lose my profit. It is a profitable trade from the account but it is a fail trade in terms of trading psychology. I found you are quite good with M5. How do you keep your patience? Or I should ask how did it take you to get rid of fear? Thank you
Hi Victoria,

You are too kind. I am far from being good with trading M5 PASR.

The only way to improve is to observe charts on this thread, and observe how price react around the Strat Shadow. Strat is really not kidding when he says we need to spend thousands of hours studying thousands of charts. There are always signs when a trend is starting. Also, observe when a trend is going to end. The same thing happens over and over again. As you see patterns, you will gain confidence, and you will learn how to control your greed and fear.

Unfortunately, trading M5 requires you to stare at the screen for a few hours, which does not really fit my lifestyle. I rarely get to trade the London session due to my work.

Patience will come to you when you learn that not everyday is a trading day.
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