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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #5,861
  • Jul 16, 2018 10:35pm Jul 16, 2018 10:35pm
Quoting Rufus
{image} Greetings from Idaho. Market here very relaxed and quiet. Rufus
Spectacular place you live in! In Singapore, we call our country a 'concrete jungle', with buildings everywhere and no nature nearby.

It will be my dream to retire in a countryside with no worries about everyday life..
  • #5,862
  • Jul 16, 2018 10:47pm Jul 16, 2018 10:47pm
EURNZD M5 PASR

Took a quick 90 pips just now, in 25 mins. Price could go down further, but 90 pips is darn good for 25 mins. I was worried about a huge retracement, so I took a partial profit in the middle. Can't complain!
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GBPNZD M5 PASR

Similar for this pair. 90 pips. Accidentally closed full trade in panic when I wanted to close partial, which explains the 2 trades taken.
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  • #5,863
  • Jul 17, 2018 1:13am Jul 17, 2018 1:13am
Quoting Rufus
{image} Greetings from Idaho. Market here very relaxed and quiet. Rufus
That doesn't look like Kraken rum!

Sachu, I think the couple of hours after Tokyo opens are the best for 5 minuite trading during Asia but living in Australia I currently have the day close at 7am, the first 4hr close at 11am, one at 3pm, and the first london candle at 7pm. I've found looking for entries on the 4hr chart for yen and aud, nzd, and the European pairs often gives good entries, with the first london candle being the one that often sets the tone for the daily close. Having said that, find the time frame that works for you, don't try and force yourself to trade 5 minute charts because you're seeing everyone do so well with them.
  • #5,864
  • Jul 17, 2018 4:08am Jul 17, 2018 4:08am
EUR AUD H4/H1

Still trying to find the time frame I am comfortable with.
Because of the actual market situation I also tried H1 (S/R taken from H4).
On H4 I saw the strong support the last days. So as the bullish candle (arrow) was formed and rejected from the support level I decided to enter with a small position. Entry was taken on H1. I took a second position today as price came back a bit (doji and then a bullish candle again).
My stop is also taken from H4 , which is below the support area.
So far so good, now I have to work the trades and find a good exit.

H4
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H1
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  • #5,865
  • Jul 17, 2018 7:10am Jul 17, 2018 7:10am
Nice one Miku!
I also enter a trade in NZD pair last night with a different signal, but got stopped out.

NZDUSD H1
Last night at New Your hour, I though I found a very nice short enter at the first blue arrow, Pa happened at resistance and 200 MA, then closed below the shadow.
So I enter short and went to sleep.
The next day at Asian hour, another nice PA happened at the second blue arrow, but I am working at that time and is not checking the chart....
It is lucky that my stop loss is not far.
Although it is a loss trade, I would like to ask was my enter correct?
How will you handle the trade or just accept the loss?
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  • #5,866
  • Jul 17, 2018 7:15am Jul 17, 2018 7:15am
Quoting brian661
Nice one Miku! I also enter a trade in NZD pair last night with a different signal, but got stopped out. NZDUSD H1 Last night at New Your hour, I though I found a very nice short enter at the first blue arrow, Pa happened at resistance and 200 MA, then closed below the shadow. So I enter short and went to sleep. The next day at Asian hour, another nice PA happened at the second blue arrow, but I am working at that time and is not checking the chart.... It is lucky that my stop loss is not far. Although it is a loss trade, I would like to ask was...
When you trade H1, you need to make sure that H4 AND the Worker give you comfort in your decision.
H4 was ok but on the Worker, selling was not encouraged
Hope this helps
  • #5,867
  • Jul 17, 2018 7:26am Jul 17, 2018 7:26am
Quoting brian661
Nice one Miku! I also enter a trade in NZD pair last night with a different signal, but got stopped out. NZDUSD H1 Last night at New Your hour, I though I found a very nice short enter at the first blue arrow, Pa happened at resistance and 200 MA, then closed below the shadow. So I enter short and went to sleep. The next day at Asian hour, another nice PA happened at the second blue arrow, but I am working at that time and is not checking the chart.... It is lucky that my stop loss is not far. Although it is a loss trade, I would like to ask was...
As Darko said but also you entered a new NZD 12 hours before major red news.
If you are going to trade lower time frames like H1 you need to keep an eye at least a day or two ahead on news in case the pair moves slowly.
Study enough and it all starts looking like the Matrix...
  • #5,868
  • Edited 9:40am Jul 17, 2018 9:27am | Edited 9:40am
NZDUSD H1

Quoting brian661
Nice one Miku! I also enter a trade in NZD pair last night with a different signal, but got stopped out. NZDUSD H1 Last night at New Your hour, I though I found a very nice short enter at the first blue arrow, Pa happened at resistance and 200 MA, then closed below the shadow. So I enter short and went to sleep. The next day at Asian hour, another nice PA happened at the second blue arrow, but I am working at that time and is not checking the chart.... It is lucky that my stop loss is not far. Although it is a loss trade, I would like to ask was...
Brian, in addition to the very valuable comments from Darko and Samson:

Have another look at your Set Up candle. The long wick and body with a short tail is NOT a candle to initiate trades on. Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference.

Now look at the PRICE structure from the bottom. Look at those 2 LARGE green candles in the black box. Those candles are telling you there are BUYERS buying at that PRICE level. Then look at what PRICE does after those two large green candles.

PRICE continues to make higher highs and higher lows using the Strat Shadow as support. PRICE eventually CLOSES above the Strat Shadow BUT is held by the 200 resistance. This has now put PRICE "in balance" or "equilibrium" telling us there is a pause or confusion between buyers and sellers. At this point, neither the buyers or sellers know where to take PRICE as shown by the red and green candles.

This, where you entered, is NEVER the place to initiate trades. PASR always WAITS for the Big Boys to SHOW us the direction they are taking PRICE. We WAIT to FOLLOW in the FOOTSTEPS of the Big Boys.

This comes on the dragonfly doji or doji Hammer you highlighted with your 2nd arrow. This is telling us the buyers have more volume than the sellers. The sellers drove PRICE down to the bottom of the doji to a PRICE level where buyers were WAITING to buy at. As those buyers bought, others then followed and bought more thus driving PRICE up. With the buyers having more volume and therefore being IN CONTROL, PRICE continued to rise.

So I enter short and went to sleep.

Then you DESERVE all the LOSSES that come to you!

If you are trading H1 then you MUST monitor your trades on a 1 HOUR basis. The only time you can enter on H1 and "forget it/go to sleep" is if that is an entry for H4 or Worker trades.

Had you done this you would have SEEN the doji Hammer and closed your trade there.

If you trade H1 then your Boss is H4 and your Big Boss is the Daily. Did you do this analysis which is one of the fundamentals of PASR strategy? Had you done this, you would have another reason NOT to enter short.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,869
  • Jul 17, 2018 10:53am Jul 17, 2018 10:53am
EUR/JPY M5

Entered on retrace to SS. Stopped out.

Thoughts:

  1. Should have been mindful of the BRN 132.00, which was not tested or broken.
  2. Those 3 long wicks at worker high were not the most inviting I've ever seen.
  3. Not exactly textbook sawtooth either.

In general today EUR made early gains and then sold off.

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  • #5,870
  • Edited 3:10am Jul 18, 2018 3:00am | Edited 3:10am
Quoting Humbucker
EUR/JPY M5 Entered on retrace to SS. Stopped out. Thoughts: Should have been mindful of the BRN 132.00, which was not tested or broken. Those 3 long wicks at worker high were not the most inviting I've ever seen. Not exactly textbook sawtooth either. In general today EUR made early gains and then sold off. {image}
I am going the other way
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  • #5,871
  • Jul 18, 2018 4:20am Jul 18, 2018 4:20am
Quoting strat
NZDUSD H1 {quote} Brian, in addition to the very valuable comments from Darko and Samson: Have another look at your Set Up candle. The long wick and body with a short tail is NOT a candle to initiate trades on. Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference. Now look at the PRICE structure from the bottom. Look at those 2 LARGE green candles in the black box. Those candles are telling you there are BUYERS buying at that PRICE level. Then look at what PRICE does...
What a post!!!!
Just feel like an experienced person walked me through the path and pointed out where is the uneven ground.
I went to the charts of Big Boss and Boss. There was a sign but not very sure sign to short. According to the rule 'if it is not obvious, then not to trade', it might need to think twice when put a trade.
This case study is very helpful for me.
Thank you Strat. Thank you Brian.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,872
  • Jul 18, 2018 4:22am Jul 18, 2018 4:22am
Quoting samsonwebdes
{quote} Hi Rub, Sorry was away in Devon on a family do this weekend so just catching up on the forum. Wanted to reply to help you hopefully by talking through my thinking on that trade. I'm far from being an expert but have had multiple profitable months in a row now so there will be lots of things I could have done better in the trade. As Strat said try not to beat yourself up about not getting it all yet. It's taken me many years of trying this, that and the other to finally see what's going on and figure out what works for me. I've had multiple...
Such a valuable and informative post. Thank you for sharing, Samson.
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,873
  • Edited 7:29am Jul 18, 2018 4:29am | Edited 7:29am
Quoting Rufus
{image} Greetings from Idaho. Market here very relaxed and quiet. Rufus
Someone is enjoying the nature while we are working!
A bit curious about the shoes: How long does it take you to tie this complicated shoe laces?
We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are.
  • #5,874
  • Jul 18, 2018 6:31am Jul 18, 2018 6:31am
Quoting strat
NZDUSD H1 {quote} Brian, in addition to the very valuable comments from Darko and Samson: Have another look at your Set Up candle. The long wick and body with a short tail is NOT a candle to initiate trades on. Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference. Now look at the PRICE structure from the bottom. Look at those 2 LARGE green candles in the black box. Those candles are telling you there are BUYERS buying at that PRICE level. Then look at what PRICE does...
Thanks Strat, darko and samsonwebdes,

Look at the red candles in the blue boxes prior to yours for examples of red candles we look for. Make sure you can SEE the difference.
The different I can see is the candle have almost no wick on both sides, this side the power on seller in the blue boxes, and opposite for the back box

Price is held by the 200 resistance. & Big boys comes on the dragonfly doji or doji Hammer you highlighted with your 2nd arrow. This is telling us the buyers have more volume than the sellers.
I have another question here. Although the nice doji Hammer was formed, but it is closed to the 200EMA, so it is possible that seller come again.
It is still risky to enter a longer trade at that candle?


If you trade H1 then your Boss is H4 and your Big Boss is the Daily. Did you do this analysis which is one of the fundamentals of PASR strategy? Had you done this, you would have another reason NOT to enter short.
After reading the posts, I found myself was mixing the long time frame and 5 minutes trading strategy.
Now I know what I did wrong and will not same mistake again
  • #5,875
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:12am Jul 18, 2018 10:12am
EUR/AUD M5

Entry on break of support as SS turned negative. Watched it grind down all day then move against me, get stopped out by 1 pip, then it went parabolic and would have made me some pips.

Stop too tight?
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  • #5,876
  • Edited 10:27am Jul 18, 2018 10:14am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting Humbucker
EUR/AUD M5 Entry on break of support as SS turned negative. Watched it grind down all day then move against me, get stopped out by 1 pip, then it went parabolic and would have made me some pips. Stop too tight? {image}
Just not the right pair I am afraid...
All the action was on JPY this morning and on USD this afternoon. How do you go about pair selection if I may ask?

EDIT: irrespective of pair selection, look at the big move up before price got back into the red shadow... This was a red flag telling you this pair will stagnate, not a real trend worth taking on M5 in my opinion

EDIT2: as a rule of thumb, on a chart with about 100 M5 candes, if price is about as much in the red shadow than in the green shadow, move on to another pair, the market is undecided
  • #5,877
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:37am Jul 18, 2018 10:37am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} Just not the right pair I am afraid... All the action was on JPY this morning and on USD this afternoon. How do you go about pair selection if I may ask? EDIT: irrespective of pair selection, look at the big move up before price got back into the red shadow... This was a red flag telling you this pair will stagnate, not a real trend worth taking on M5 in my opinion EDIT2: as a rule of thumb, on a chart with about 100 M5 candes, if price is about as much in the red shadow than in the green shadow, move on to another pair, the market is undecided...
Thanks for your feedback Darko.

Pair selection is normally just about how they are trending wrt strat shadow. At that time, EUR/JPY was on my list, but was pretty flat whereas EUR/AUD looked like it was moving. GBP/JPY was off due to news. EUR/AUD had been moving south since before 9am UK time, and SS was just about flipping, so i was expecting more.

I think EDIT 1 and 2 are the big point here: that big run-up at the end of Asian trading is something I should look into more, and the pair had not seen much overall movement across the entire image.

Regards
  • #5,878
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:45am Jul 18, 2018 10:45am
Quoting Humbucker
{quote} At that time, EUR/JPY was on my list, but was pretty flat whereas EUR/AUD looked like it was moving.
I also trade on M5 but EURJPY didn't look flat to me...
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  • #5,879
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:58am Jul 18, 2018 10:58am
Quoting darko2010
{quote} I also trade on M5 but EURJPY didn't look flat to me... {image}
Yeah true - I think I was drawn by the breakout of lows in EUR/AUD - I tend to jump on that signal like a teenager who has spied a nice pair of....currencies.

After that point I didn't want to be short EUR twice - I also don't normally run more than one trade.

Thanks for your input.
  • #5,880
  • Jul 18, 2018 10:59am Jul 18, 2018 10:59am
Psychology, Psychology, Psychology

Strat said that he would make me a trader even if it was the last thing he did.
I was probably the least able person on FF to accept what he was willing to give.
Whoever reads this and wants to move on to some other thread which offers a magical solution with pivots and indicators, don't.
Stay here, do the work, don't be afraid to ask if you haven't found an answer here (I doubt it though).
This is by far the most benevolent group I could have hoped for with the most amazing mentor I could have asked for. Not what you want but what you need (Rolling Stones).

And because some people need proof:
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