EURUSD only

The greatest benefit and the only edge that we Retail traders have over Institutional trading is:
we don't have to trade all the time. We can choose to do nothing whenever we want.

Use it

happy weekend Traders

this expectation corresponds to my expectations usdchf i am now short.
hope for the best.

Exellent choise to I em there allso price is reversing niceley

my humble contribution

My submission.

Thank you for your clear, clean, clear, naked (no indicators) charts - 20 / 30 candles / time frame are sufficient. Need more info, simple - move up a time frame. Here's my take on the action around the low - posted elsewhere....

"Here's a more detailed look at the action around the turn at 08:40 GMT on Friday morning......

1. Pre London Open there was a Lower High followed by the Wide Ranged Body - a red Marubozo (M) + vol increased

2. A Very High Volume (activity) BUT a narrower range.....must be some hidden buying / profit taking

3. A WRB M held at the **25 Sweet Spot.....No Demand to push down followed by 5 green = buying / profit taking

4. Another red WRB M on increased volume - followed immediatly by an equal volumed green doji = indecision

5. A narrow ranged red M on increased volume = Hidden Buying followed by the low at the MS 3 level at 08:40
in a good volumed small red spinning top / doji.....followed by three green candles with good volumes - more buying

6. Price was then "worked" in a ~20 pip range as the Big Boys - aka Smart Money - exited their shorts and started buying with two Higher Lows before the Ultra High Volumed WRB - a green Marubozo at 12:00

7. The second WRB HV Green M moved pushed up out of the Accumulation Zone, signalling the start of the rally of more than 70 pips

A Marubozo Candle a solid bodied candle which if wider than previous candles signals increased interest. IF with Higher Volumes this suggests such interest is caused by the activity of the BBs / SM.

Point Of Control ( POC ) level is the level of greatest activiry during a given time period - see Market Profile for more
information.

This use of WRBs with Volumes around Levels is my take on the seminal work on the use of Volumes in trading by the late, great Tom Williams known as Volume Spread Analysis - thank you old friend."

PS Remember that I am an Intra Day Trader , looking to trade the ID swings off the M5 & M1 charts, not holding over night. Monday is a new day, full of new action - going wherever the BBs / SM want it to go......I try to follow.....

hope, Monday will be nfp, bad or neutral.
every little crumb, counts.
of course only from my point of view.
.
h4

Well put. There is plenty of information posted in this thread of where to expect price to go, little if any of when this might happen.....that requires more thought / research to work it out - but the info is there

PS. Nice charts too - thanks

And that's exactly the weak spot of most Retail traders. Speculating on the "when".
The "when" is the job of an Analyst, not of a trader.

ok so... wall of text and a brief insight into the mind of a "lunatic",
please bare with me, it is my intention to make you think, I don't dare to "be right":

The market answers the "when" question for you:
The price will go up when Demand exceeds Supply.
The price will go down when Supply exceeds Demand.
That's a simple fact.
The market provides us with this information all the time. All we need to do is watch the price. The Momentum tells us about the actual agression (greed & fear) behaviour of the market participants:
Are Sellers more agressive than buyers? Do Sellers execute more Sell Marketorders than there are Pending Buy Oders to be filled at the given price?
> the price moves down
Are Buyers more agressive than Sellers? Do Buyers execute more Buy Marketorders than there are Pending Sell Orders to be filled at the given price?
> the pice moves up.

It is the markets soul purpose to fill orders. Marketorders fill Pending Orders. (this is what moves the price)
Now, all you really need to do is find the levels where Demand exceeded Supply and where Supply exceeded Demand.
These are the Levels where Institutional Orderflow sets in: (high Volume areas, often missunderstood by Retailers as "low volume") These are the zones where the price found a balance between Buyers and Sellers (agreement on price, market does not move), until imbalance sets in and one side becomes more agressive than the other (thus, creating the impulsive move because the market needs to fill the now exceeding Marketorders against the pending Orders.)

I know it's a bit confusing because it's counter intuitive, especialy when you have never seen an orderbook (L2 DoM) and I know this goes against the modern industries "trading education" that is designed for only one reason: make you press the "take my money" button as often as possible, and nothing else.
Look at this very simple chart, where I outlined the current active Supply and Demand Zones.
Where do you think big players buy, and where do they trade out (take profit). Then where do they sell and take profit? Then where do they do nothing and simply wait until the market reaches imbalance again, to pump in orders so large, backed by protective "just in case" Stop Orders...

you need to understand the difference between large scale trading and retail trading:
The candlestick charts that we love and (over)analyse so much, are the visualization of filled orders. Institutional trading is not interested in filled orders, it is only interested in getting their unfilled orders filled. They are looking at unfilled orders (Orderflow), nothing else.
(creating happy liquidity wicks, for you to call them "Stophunting", which is complete and utter nonsense btw...)


The reality is: these guys don't speculate, and these guys don't lose.
So why would you?
There is no "when". The only "when" is the now


To be pricese: the reason for the "do nothing" is because this (grey) zone acted as Demand and as Supply in the past. Currently, as price pulls into this zone, we do not know what will happen there. It is a zone where the price is expected to find balance between buyers and sellers and we need to wait for the decision on which side becomes more agressive than the other, thus creating the next imbalance.
At this point we simply can not know and anything we could do here is "speculation".
Speculation is not profitable in the long run. I personaly choose to wait and let the price present me with the next opportunity to pick my breadcrumbs and be happy with it.
The option to "do nothing" is my edge as a Retailer.
That's how you beat them, instead of letting them beat you.
Patience goes a long way.

Good luck

I might add: the grey zone is where I start looking at intermarket and cross currencie correlations, momentum and currencie strength/weakness, to anticipate on how the zone is going to act as Supply or Demand. If price confirms the correlation / moneyflow / situation / whatever, and delivers a clean entry for how I trade, with a decent RR that I am looking for, I take the opportunity to trade accordingly.
If not, I simply stay away.

That's what I mean when I keep saying "trade the price", all the time.

PS: now my haters are free to hate on me for "schooling". I just want to tell you: NOBODY out there teaches you this, so be happy you get these insights from the few experienced people in here who are willing to help the newbros, instead of hating on us. We could instead simply do our thing and be good with it, but we choose to share, for free.
You're welcome.

https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/...5aac99c419.png

A further thought provoking post

Firstly, as you said earlier: "The greatest benefit and the only edge that we Retail traders have over Institutional trading is:
we don't have to trade all the time. We can choose to do nothing whenever we want"........

Thus I choose not to look at my trading screen from ~1800 GMT until ~ 06:00 GMT I guess you can work out why !!

Likewise, during the remaining 12 hours there are other times that are less probable (excluding a tweet by POTUS or similar random News Event) to produce market activity and thus one may chose to do other important things.

Conversely, there are times when the market will probably be more active....Viz: ~ London Open & ~Red News Events. At these times I will be watching my charts....

There are other times, but they do take some research.....

Well this "learning to crawl" student of Forex certainly appreciates your and other experienced traders insights and willingness to share. I am in the process of reprogramming my trading style to following Price Action and Money Flow rather than lagging indicators which as you aptly quantified as motivators to induce us to hit the " take my money " button.

Thanks again and looking forward to following this thread ...

whoa... such a long detailed post

true... ignore the Friday candle, and see how price react in the next coming days

to cut it short, next week i will be looking at 1.1709 (see my previous original post), with a daily close above it certainly favour bulls side to test psychology level 1.1800 and supply 1.1840

EU daily chart (MT4 iphone)
note: middle bollinger band is supporting bullish pinbar



DXY daily chart
note: middle BB is just underneath bear pinbar, it could be a break or hold scenario (1.1709 in EU)

this pair is taking so long to get to my levels hurry up i wanna take profit and go on vacation

well said , just highlighting the best parts

thank you
When my light aspergers kicks in, my brain ticks into "output" mode...
I can get a little bit excited when this happens

(I don't count toothpicks, no worries )

EUR/USD DAILY

Early in the quarter yet . What has happened so far is a new quarterly high , Price has probed below the Q open not much success in holding below it or making a new quarterly low . To get the nice big fat H&S on the monthly if there is to be one price needs to get near the daily 200 and quarterly pivot area . Above 1680 bullish , below bearish ,not much else to glean other than the weekly lows have been slightly higher each week. Dukes up traders the bell is about to ring ,,,great week to all