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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,301
  • Jul 5, 2018 8:31pm Jul 5, 2018 8:31pm
Quoting C-12
DX H4 The uptrend is taken out but there's that zone just below to watch out for. {image}
Looks like we did get the bounce from the next demand level...

C,
have you ever found anything consistent when it comes to situations like this? Meaning, after a trendline is broken like this one was..Or is it just waiting to see the reaction once it happens?

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  • #6,302
  • Jul 5, 2018 9:03pm Jul 5, 2018 9:03pm
Here's an example of price pulling back and touching a 4hr demand zone as seen on the 1 min chart. There were no other clear cut demand zones on the 1 hour, 15min, or 5min unless I missed them - none that were touched I mean. Volatile market today, on the YM and NQ at least. I believe tomorrow the tariffs start taking affect...

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  • #6,303
  • Jul 6, 2018 12:49am Jul 6, 2018 12:49am
Quoting jack411
{quote} Looks like we did get the bounce from the next demand level... C, have you ever found anything consistent when it comes to situations like this? Meaning, after a trendline is broken like this one was..Or is it just waiting to see the reaction once it happens? {image}
As it was a countertrend zone I was just looking for scalps against it on EU. I was at work when the zone hit so didn't get anything.

Looking at the week FOMC reaction off that level (and the reverse on EU) It's looking like EU will move up and take out the zone.
  • #6,304
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:05am Jul 6, 2018 2:05am
A few more scraps before work. This should go higher but it's pre NFP so good idea to take something early on.
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  • #6,305
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:55am Jul 6, 2018 2:55am
What do you think about this S&R zone? Do you pay attention regarding S&R? USD-Index is at demand and EUR/USD in that mentioned zone.
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  • #6,306
  • Jul 6, 2018 2:59am Jul 6, 2018 2:59am
Quoting Fonzi
What do you think about this S&R zone? Do you pay attention regarding S&R? USD-Index is at demand and EUR/USD in that mentioned zone. {image}
He is a Supply and Demand trader like me and not Support and Resistance trader.
The 2 concept look similar but are different and must not be confused
  • #6,307
  • Jul 6, 2018 3:07am Jul 6, 2018 3:07am
Quoting Merka
{quote} He is a Supply and Demand trader like me and not Support and Resistance trader. The 2 concept look similar but are different and must not be confused
2 of the best S&D traders in this forum (Julexo, KennyZ) based their trading heavily on S&R. Although Ken called it something like historical PA and handled it a bit different.

Julexo wrote: S&D and S&R are like brothers and sisters.
  • #6,308
  • Jul 6, 2018 3:28am Jul 6, 2018 3:28am
Quoting MCFly
{quote} 2 of the best S&D traders in this forum (Julexo, KennyZ) based their trading heavily on S&R. Although Ken called it something like historical PA and handled it a bit different. Julexo wrote: S&D and S&R are like brothers and sisters.
It's what I said.
Similar but not identical.
BTW, I never seen a video of Sam Seiden, the inventor of S&D methodology, using S&R.
Draw your own conclusions.
Regards
  • #6,309
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:35am Jul 6, 2018 4:35am
Quoting Merka
{quote} It's what I said. Similar but not identical. BTW, I never seen a video of Sam Seiden, the inventor of S&D methodology, using S&R. Draw your own conclusions. Regards
When you read through the different S&D threads in this forum you will notice that nobody trades solely like Sam Seiden. They all trade their own style with additional integredients. Redsword for example was used to use harmonic/Gartely pattern, chart pattern like H&S, S&R, charts without wicks, trendlines... All tools Sam Seiden would never consider to use.

Btw. look at C-12's last trade. Do you see the yellow line? Looks like a S&R line.
  • #6,310
  • Jul 6, 2018 6:49am Jul 6, 2018 6:49am
hmmmm, maybe?
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  • #6,311
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:25am Jul 6, 2018 8:25am
Quoting Fonzi
What do you think about this S&R zone? Do you pay attention regarding S&R? USD-Index is at demand and EUR/USD in that mentioned zone. {image}

S/R zones are S/D zones. They're just on a higher timeframe. Look at the price action above the blue line you posted. This is likely a supply zone on the weekly or monthly. Price just didn't retrace very high back up into the zone when it came back to the area. This is a similar concept to the NQ charts I just posted above.
  • #6,312
  • Edited 12:40pm Jul 6, 2018 12:26pm | Edited 12:40pm
S/R is a connection of highs and lows that you can plot with a horizontal line.

However, as Jack mentioned above some S/R levels are actually an SD zone on a higher timeframe.

Something to watch out for.
  • #6,313
  • Jul 7, 2018 10:15am Jul 7, 2018 10:15am
Quoting C-12
A few more scraps before work. This should go higher but it's pre NFP so good idea to take something early on. {image} {image}

C,

since the topic of s/r was brought up and since somebody pointed it out, what were your thoughts on those 2 positions you opened on the 5minute chart? It looks like you took 2 buy positions off the bounce of that yellow s/r line. I looked back, and price had definitely flipped back and forth right at that area...

The demand zone marked just below it, was likely a demand zone on a higher timeframe as well, like we just talked about above. So what made you decide to take the immediate bounce versus waiting for price to dip a little lower into the demand zone? Is this just something you occasionally do or is there a specific reason when you do it?

I uploaded your chart and marked it up a little. Hopefully not confusing anybody...

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  • #6,314
  • Jul 7, 2018 10:48am Jul 7, 2018 10:48am
Quoting jack411
So what made you decide to take the immediate bounce versus waiting for price to dip a little lower into the demand zone? Is this just something you occasionally do or is there a specific reason when you do it?
I put a couple of limits on the zone after FOMC after the demand level had formed (better visible on M15/M30 and even H1)

My reason was I didn't want to be chasing price on the London open if it retested overnight and blasted off.

Luckily price was still hanging around the entry area when I got to the charts so managed to get a couple of more orders in.
  • #6,315
  • Edited 12:45pm Jul 11, 2018 12:11pm | Edited 12:45pm
Damn, looks like I missed a good day. M30 + M5 charts

If you're not trading S&D with PA on multiple timeframes, this session would have you tied up in knots.

Managed to get the scraps when I got home from work, but this should have been an 8 hour turkey shoot.

It's impossible to call direction in advance, but you can roll with the zones and the PA in real time.
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  • #6,316
  • Jul 12, 2018 3:30pm Jul 12, 2018 3:30pm
Quoting C-12
......M30 + M5 charts If you're not trading S&D with PA on multiple timeframes, this session would have you tied up in knots. Managed to get the scraps when I got home from work, but this should have been an 8 hour turkey shoot. It's impossible to call direction in advance, but you can roll with the zones and the PA in real time. {image}
Trading multiple timeframes is certainly an arrow in the S&D/PA trader's quiver. Another such arrow is the concept of "sister trading".

The basic idea of "sister trading" is we can expand our ability to trade in one Market, by watching another highly correlated Market as well. In other words, if you trade the EUR/USD, you can get Long/Short based on S&D and PA in that Market. And you can get Long/Short in the EUR/USD based on the S&D and PA in a highly correlated (negatively) such as USDX. A Long signal in the USDX gets you Short in the EUR/USD and a Short signal in the USDX gets you Long in the EUR/USD.

"Sister trading" is particularly advantageous if you employ PA detailed rule-based set-ups. This allows you, for example, to get Long the EUR/USD when an invalid signal appears (rule # 3 of 5 is not met) but there is a valid Short signal (all 5 rules met) appearing in the USDX.

Here's a very interesting example from today. It's interesting because both Markets give valid "Confirmation Entry (CE)" signals, but the signal in the USDX actually happens 30 minutes before the signal in the EUR/USD. The Short signal in the USDX would allow you to enter a Long trade in the EUR/USD earlier and with less risk.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #6,317
  • Jul 12, 2018 3:45pm Jul 12, 2018 3:45pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Trading multiple timeframes is certainly an arrow in the S&D/PA trader's quiver. Another such arrow is the concept of "sister trading". The basic idea of "sister trading" is we can expand our ability to trade in one Market, by watching another highly correlated Market as well. In other words, if you trade the EUR/USD, you can get Long/Short based on S&D and PA in that Market.
Excellent stuff HG. Always been a massive fan since the early PIE days.

As for the sister trading, you're preaching to the converted.

I have 2 x full 1080p monitors dedicated solely to USDX (H4, H1, M15, M5 stacked) with the exactly inverse of this setup on EURUSD screens below.

I still find it amazing USDX often leads the EURUSD when it comes to zones and PA. Today that was a great example.
  • #6,318
  • Jul 17, 2018 9:56am Jul 17, 2018 9:56am
Hi,
attached you can find a few ss from the master (hmmm, I sound like a fanboi ) which give a little insight in correlation trading.
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  • #6,319
  • Jul 17, 2018 2:33pm Jul 17, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting MCFly
Hi, attached you can find a few ss from the master (hmmm, I sound like a fanboi ) which give a little insight in correlation trading. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
I still laugh at that bottom NJ trade where he accidentally placed an 8 lot scalp and still held it like a boss.
  • #6,320
  • Jul 17, 2018 3:17pm Jul 17, 2018 3:17pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} I still laugh at that bottom NJ trade where he accidentally placed an 8 lot scalp and still held it like a boss.

Hey C,

if you have time later I'd love to see your analysis and thoughts on YM (mini Dow)...
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