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C-12's Supply, Demand and PA thread

  • #6,281
  • Jun 29, 2018 5:05pm Jun 29, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} C, sitting through that heat - I have a 15min and a 4hr chart attached. You got in at the bottom of that move up and the ellipses are where you sat through a little heat. What makes you not jump out there? Is it because you just touched into demand on the 4hr and you're expecting a big move up to a more significant supply on the 4hr? I'm transitioning into trading the larger time frames now, and I assume this is the reason. I just wanted to hear your thoughts... thanks{image} {image}
No worries, for disclaimer those overnight positions were just demo trades.

The live is solely used for short term intraday scalps and strictly no experimental stuff, overnight holds etc. I do notice almost every day price goes much beyond my take profits so it makes sense to practice running these if I get a higher timeframe move.

I noticed you've drawn supply at the top (H4) but not the demand area at the bottom. Even though price did some pissing around, we had a strong H4 bull engulf out of a strong H4 demand. As a higher TF trade (with a stop loss behind the zone) it was a textbook entry.

Here's my H4 chart based on NY close. Technically it was fresh H4 demand formed within a wide H4 demand area. M30 was the sweet spot for the base of the initial level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.PNG Size: 37 KB
  • #6,282
  • Jun 29, 2018 5:16pm Jun 29, 2018 5:16pm
Here's a chart that is very nice in my eyes. I need to start paying GU more attention as it's a great intraday mover.

Notice the H4 bull engulf out of demand. Then with M30 next to H4 you could have nailed that buy to the pip on the demand retest. These time frames seem to be a great match up for intraday / multiday trading. No M5 needed at all as this can be quite intensive and less productive in the end.

You've just got to trust the HTF H4 PA and then go lower to narrow down an entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 73 KB
  • #6,283
  • Jun 29, 2018 5:24pm Jun 29, 2018 5:24pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} No worries, for disclaimer those overnight positions were just demo trades. The live is solely used for short term intraday scalps and strictly no experimental stuff, overnight holds etc. I do notice almost every day price goes much beyond my take profits so it makes sense to practice running these if I get a higher timeframe move. I noticed you've drawn supply at the top (H4) but not the demand area at the bottom. Even though price did some pissing around, we had a strong H4 bull engulf out of a strong H4 demand. As a higher TF trade (with...

Ok,
thats what I figured. I'm used to trading smaller timeframes still. And I pulled those charts up and marked them so that I could post and ask you. I did see the demand zone I just forgot to mark it on the chart.

thanks!
  • #6,284
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:09pm Jul 1, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting C-12
Here's a chart that is very nice in my eyes. I need to start paying GU more attention as it's a great intraday mover. Notice the H4 bull engulf out of demand. Then with M30 next to H4 you could have nailed that buy to the pip on the demand retest. These time frames seem to be a great match up for intraday / multiday trading. No M5 needed at all as this can be quite intensive and less productive in the end. You've just got to trust the HTF H4 PA and then go lower to narrow down an entry. {image}

I attached these charts and used the yellow lines to mark the areas I'm referring to...

That move down on the 4hr after the engulfing bear candle, would those be viable areas on the 30min to look for supply and short again? They may not be marked perfectly, but my main question is, would you be looking for shorts during that time?

Once price hits that demand area at the bottom, you can see how price went up, and wasn't respecting those supply levels I have drawn anymore. So after price hits a demand zone on a big timeframe like the 4hr, the direction and bias changes, is this correct?

The only times I get caught up is when I'm trying to play both sides and I'm scalping. It actually does work, but when I have losses, it's usually because I'm trying to play both sides/directions like that... Keeping track of the 4hr and most recent major supply/demand zone touched will keep me out of any trouble I think.

You've talked about this many times before. I'm just going over charts today so I thought I'd post this up and ask.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: move down.jpg Size: 258 KB
  • #6,285
  • Edited 6:00pm Jul 1, 2018 5:45pm | Edited 6:00pm
Quoting jack411
Once price hits that demand area at the bottom, you can see how price went up, and wasn't respecting those supply levels I have drawn anymore. So after price hits a demand zone on a big timeframe like the 4hr, the direction and bias changes, is this correct?
Yes, the H4 PA, but also those M30 areas were pretty weak and insignificant and didn't register as supply zones. There wasn't any sign of fresh sellers, it was more lack demand causing price to drop.

Notice GU when it was trending last month and pulling back into these kind of M30 zones. I've highlighted 3 of them (yellow boxes). Look deeper at the structure of each supply level.

Each level had a rally before the drop with a single solid engulfing candle, created by fresh supply / sellers on the way down in a strong trend.

Lower chart is a textbook Drop Base Drop in a downtrend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.PNG Size: 55 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU1.PNG Size: 37 KB
  • #6,286
  • Jul 2, 2018 1:07pm Jul 2, 2018 1:07pm
c-12 ur best world mentor/forex teacher which never irritate , and teach at free of cost , ur my inspiration
  • #6,287
  • Jul 2, 2018 1:15pm Jul 2, 2018 1:15pm
c-12 is it possible , to trade of 16 major pairs daily ? using H4 and m30 setup ? and do u think , all work same ? or demand /supply work good for just USD pairs ?

2nd why u dint have Supply /demand alert box or dashboard to save your so much manual time ?
  • #6,288
  • Jul 2, 2018 1:48pm Jul 2, 2018 1:48pm
Quoting blackforex1
c-12 is it possible , to trade of 16 major pairs daily ? using H4 and m30 setup ? and do u think , all work same ? or demand /supply work good for just USD pairs ? 2nd why u dint have Supply /demand alert box or dashboard to save your so much manual time ?
It is possible to trade 16 pairs of H4/M30 but I didn't have the discipline to make this work. I was like a kid in a candy store and quickly would get over 20 open positions. Huge profits and huge busts when things didn't work out.

Less is best for me, just EU (H4/M30/M5) with occasional GU/UJ if there's anything interesting (H4/M30)

Weekly, Daily + H4 is very possible with 16 pairs.

Dashboard maybe ok for alerts but I like to just view the zones and PA manually.
  • #6,289
  • Jul 3, 2018 12:47am Jul 3, 2018 12:47am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Yes, the H4 PA, but also those M30 areas were pretty weak and insignificant and didn't register as supply zones. There wasn't any sign of fresh sellers, it was more lack demand causing price to drop.
Hi C-12,
what are the most important clues that fresh sellers or buyers are coming on board?
  • #6,290
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:30am Jul 3, 2018 1:30am
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Hi C-12, what are the most important clues that fresh sellers or buyers are coming on board?
Big engulfing candle that initially shows on LTF and eventually becomes visible on HTF.
  • #6,291
  • Jul 3, 2018 3:50am Jul 3, 2018 3:50am
[quote=C-12;11224209 Big engulfing candle that initially shows on LTF and eventually becomes visible on HTF.[/quote]

Plz forgive my ignorance but can you go more in detail what you mean with "eventually becomes visible on HTF"? I guess you are refering to the roll over PA concept but I have still problems to grasp it.
  • #6,292
  • Edited 1:27pm Jul 4, 2018 12:53pm | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Plz forgive my ignorance but can you go more in detail what you mean with "eventually becomes visible on HTF"? I guess you are refering to the roll over PA concept but I have still problems to grasp it.
Just the PA itself. You first see the signs of sellers / buyers on a low timeframe with engulfing PA.

Stack H4 next to M15. Notice the bull / bear engulfs (then dig deeper inside into M15, you can see how these levels are formed).

Look inside these yellow boxes, specifically lower ones. Can you see fresh buying coming in? This was a key reversal PA (I'm long from this area but not closed out the trade yet).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 88 KB
  • #6,293
  • Jul 4, 2018 1:43pm Jul 4, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} Just the PA itself. You first see the signs of sellers / buyers on a low timeframe with engulfing PA. Stack H4 next to M15. Notice the bull / bear engulfs (then dig deeper inside into M15, you can see how these levels are formed). Look inside these yellow boxes, specifically lower ones. Can you see fresh buying coming in? This was a key reversal PA (I'm long from this area but not closed out the trade yet). {image}

Are you expecting that previous 4hr supply to hold, not hold, or are you just going to wait and see the reaction?
  • #6,294
  • Jul 4, 2018 1:58pm Jul 4, 2018 1:58pm
Quoting jack411
{quote} Are you expecting that previous 4hr supply to hold, not hold, or are you just going to wait and see the reaction?
I think the main area is this H4 supply just above this one, we might see it play out in FOMC tomorrow. This could be a stitch up just above these highs, although that setup seems a bit too obvious.

I'm not sure if we take it out to the upside or get a reversal off it, I'd need some PA to give me a direction (a few minutes after the news breaks).
  • #6,295
  • Jul 4, 2018 2:03pm Jul 4, 2018 2:03pm
DX H4

The uptrend is taken out but there's that zone just below to watch out for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX.PNG Size: 54 KB
  • #6,296
  • Jul 4, 2018 2:22pm Jul 4, 2018 2:22pm
Quoting C-12
DX H4 The uptrend is taken out but there's that zone just below to watch out for. {image}

yeah, a couple pips below 93.855, maybe matching that zones low, looks like a good spot for at least a decent bounce back up to me. We'll see how good of a prediction that is
  • #6,297
  • Jul 5, 2018 1:03am Jul 5, 2018 1:03am
Ok that's done until FOMC unless we get a very clear PA to short up here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.PNG Size: 48 KB
  • #6,298
  • Jul 5, 2018 3:33am Jul 5, 2018 3:33am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Just the PA itself. You first see the signs of sellers / buyers on a low timeframe with engulfing PA. Stack H4 next to M15. Notice the bull / bear engulfs (then dig deeper inside into M15, you can see how these levels are formed). Look inside these yellow boxes, specifically lower ones. Can you see fresh buying coming in? This was a key reversal PA (I'm long from this area but not closed out the trade yet). {image}
Thank you that's what I was looking for. I tried to make some notes but I don't know if I get it right?

The challenge is to enter when the HTF engulfing is forming. That's the way you often do it if I'm not wrong. I have noticed that you take trades at the source of the move and not after good HTF PA.

I can see a chance to sell before the HTF bearish engulfing forms but no chance to take an early buy. The first sign of fresh buyers for me is the long body down candle. When there would be strong sellers why would it stop there. But I couldn't be sure if it's really a hint that buyers join before the candles in the white box are formed. But even then it would be too risky for me to buy. The 4 HR closed after that huge bullish candle. The first good buy opportunity for me is the retest of the rally base rally demand zone 8 hours later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.png Size: 44 KB
  • #6,299
  • Jul 5, 2018 6:24am Jul 5, 2018 6:24am
Quoting Fonzi
{quote} Thank you that's what I was looking for. I tried to make some notes but I don't know if I get it right? The challenge is to enter when the HTF engulfing is forming. That's the way you often do it if I'm not wrong. I have noticed that you take trades at the source of the move and not after good HTF PA. I can see a chance to sell before the HTF bearish engulfing forms but no chance to take an early buy. The first sign of fresh buyers for me is the long body down candle. When there would be strong sellers why would it stop there. But I couldn't...
This is good, I like how you're thinking about it.

That big H4 bull engulf may not look great as a buy from a RR perspective but it's a good sign we're going plenty higher with 2:1 to the upper zone. M15 gave a pullback to a nice zone with excellent RR.

Once you spend time with H4 stacked next to a LTF chart you can eventually read direction without any additional indicators, but it takes screentime and effort.
  • #6,300
  • Jul 5, 2018 3:01pm Jul 5, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting C-12
{quote} This is good, I like how you're thinking about it. That big H4 bull engulf may not look great as a buy from a RR perspective but it's a good sign we're going plenty higher with 2:1 to the upper zone. M15 gave a pullback to a nice zone with excellent RR. Once you spend time with H4 stacked next to a LTF chart you can eventually read direction without any additional indicators, but it takes screentime and effort.
I wish I could do it live. I still miss something. But thank you for your assistance.
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