The only thread you will ever need: FX Exposed! | Page 184 | Forex Factory

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  • #3,661
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:13am Jul 6, 2018 7:13am
Quoting FractalFreak
"Why there are these massive short positions in E/U" This not reliable data, as you may have guessed. FF
Of course, it is only OANDA, however, still, with NFP comming, those positions can be easily consumed, while before that SM plays the plausibility card.
Return To Disorder
  • #3,662
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:21am Jul 6, 2018 7:21am
Quoting JGalt
{quote} Agree... but how can u "see" if the DM is positioning long or short?
I cant but from the price behaviour i can get it right 6 to 8 out of 10 times, there is alot more things to take in considoration like market timing and stuff like that.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,663
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:25am Jul 6, 2018 7:25am
Hi FF,
Now you have 15 NO votes
I did also vote NO in your tread because I want you to focus on what you are doing for us here. Let the garbage float and don’t mind this fella, yes he can be a pain in the a.. but don’t mind this one person, let’s move on. You have already done great things here for us
  • #3,664
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:59am Jul 6, 2018 7:59am
Quoting Milan
{quote} Yes, I think the same. I already sent a pending sell oreder (yesterday). But I can read it just from my charting, those from FF are a bit confused for me. {image}
Seems like I was right for today... coincidence?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,665
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:06am Jul 6, 2018 8:06am
Quoting FractalFreak
Here AU on M15: {image}
Am I wrong in my observation that there were so many long positions prior to Non-Farm Payroll and those positions on AUDUSD now made plenty of $$$ ?
How is this explained in the SM/DM model ?
Note that my question is raised because I am just trying to understand the model more fully.
  • #3,666
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:13am Jul 6, 2018 8:13am
Have a look at the AU chart and you see the yellow line around 0.74400, looks like the SM did just take out those stops?
  • #3,667
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:21am Jul 6, 2018 8:21am
Quoting El1000
Have a look at the AU chart and you see the yellow line around 0.74400, looks like the SM did just take out those stops?
OK, but look at all the green bars at the bottom of the chart where LONG positions were accumulating (not many shorts)
Now they all won big time !

My question should really be answered by FractalFreak as he is the expert on this SM/DM interpretations.
  • #3,668
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:26am Jul 6, 2018 8:26am
Quoting silverau
{quote} OK, but look at all the green bars at the bottom of the chart where LONG positions were accumulating (not many shorts) Now they all won big time !
Yes I see that, but they was around 50 pips up and what FF have told us earlier is that SM must have som DM win tolerance, FF you must correct me if I’m wrong
  • #3,669
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:29am Jul 6, 2018 8:29am
Quoting El1000
{quote} Yes I see that, but they was around 50 pips up and what FF have told us earlier is that SM must have som DM win tolerance, FF you must correct me if I’m wrong
So when do you have such massive tolerance and when don't you ??
Your answer is incomplete

Please allow FractalFreak to answer - he is the expert here
The rest of us are merely interpreters/learners
  • #3,670
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:31am Jul 6, 2018 8:31am
Quoting vwap
{quote} the SM may possibly try fishing (plausibility principle) at the higher level of 0.7453 (counter stop run)
Counter stop run DM MTS hit

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,671
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:35am Jul 6, 2018 8:35am
Quoting vwap
{quote} Counter stop run DM MTS hit {image}
Plus some longies probably moved there stops into profit or breakeven and most traders will let the trade prove em wrong before they exit prematurely.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,672
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:39am Jul 6, 2018 8:39am
Quoting vwap
{quote} Counter stop run DM MTS hit {image}
But a lot of DM positions went into large profits ??
For example my trade, I made 50 pips on the up move and I am sure many other DM traders exited with good profit too
All that GREEN accumulation shown at the bottom of the chart made it good - not much RED visible there on the chart
Still not seeing the logic yet
  • #3,673
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:46am Jul 6, 2018 8:46am
Quoting silverau
{quote} But a lot of DM positions went into large profits ?? For example my trade, I made 50 pips on the up move and I am sure many other DM traders exited with good profit too All that GREEN accumulation shown at the bottom of the chart made it good - not much RED visible there on the chart Still not seeing the logic yet
Maybe right before nfp huge amount short positions came in?
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,674
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:51am Jul 6, 2018 8:51am
Quoting vwap
{quote} {image}
That chart is from yesterday - and it again shows more longs being acquired than shorts
So the move upward today helped the DM?
I am looking for a logical explanation and I am getting guesses from all of you
  • #3,675
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:52am Jul 6, 2018 8:52am
Quoting JustPipping
{quote} Maybe right before nfp huge amount short positions came in?
that is speculation - not shown in the charts

I respect FractalFreak and his teachings, but I am not understanding this particular situation with AUDUSD today
  • #3,676
  • Jul 6, 2018 8:56am Jul 6, 2018 8:56am
Quoting silverau
{quote} that is speculation - not shown in the charts I respect FractalFreak and his teachings, but I am not understanding this particular situation with AUDUSD today
Well FF never mentioned he has a 100% win rate, i havent seen his AU chart from seconds before nfp so yes they are speculations.
Was slipping off the edge but i held up.
  • #3,677
  • Jul 6, 2018 10:49am Jul 6, 2018 10:49am
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www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,678
  • Jul 6, 2018 10:51am Jul 6, 2018 10:51am
"What they also probably fail to realise is that posting negativity every day is a reflection of their inner state and consciousness, which is also negative, and how can they successfully trade or run a business with a negative state of mind? For those people who choose negativity, it must be very difficult to be successful, I know because I used to be one of those people lol"

WISE words.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,679
  • Jul 6, 2018 10:52am Jul 6, 2018 10:52am
"They do this to induce traders to take positions and swipe them out the moment the news releases, especially on NFP where huge spikes on both sides of the range will be seen."

YES.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #3,680
  • Jul 6, 2018 10:52am Jul 6, 2018 10:52am
"appreciate Freaks's input."

Thx dear.

FF
www.sme-fx.com
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