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EURUSD only

  • #27,481
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:33am Jul 6, 2018 7:33am
yes! looking good for longs


50 pips in profit my target is 1788
  • #27,482
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:33am Jul 6, 2018 7:33am
News interpretations anyone? Looked pretty "in line" to me. Today looks like an up day on the EURUSD. If it ends around here or higher, looks like I will be trying to short on MONDAY.

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Looks to me like the 4% unemployment number might have been a bit unexpected and causing the USD drop and EURUSD pop here... No positions yet though because not seen a good price for my trading yet in the past day or so.
  • #27,483
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:33am Jul 6, 2018 7:33am
Welcome to the NFP "experts" show!
Do you realise how many idiots believe they can understand that US data numbers right now?! Can you imagine them?!
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  • #27,484
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:34am Jul 6, 2018 7:34am
if u have shorts. stay in the game. shouldnt be going past 1850; if your risk appetite allows
  • #27,485
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:37am Jul 6, 2018 7:37am
Quoting TudorIoan
Welcome to the NFP "experts" show! Do you realise how many idiots believe they can understand that US data numbers right now?! Can you imagine them?! {image}
Haha, actually had some experience (few weeks) with institutional traders shadowing. They actually are more about the fundamentals with smaller amount of tech mixed in (at least the prop part, whatever is left of that which is closest to what is done here) - what info is not expected in the market and driving it up. But yeah, most retailers might not even want to go this way I'll admit.

Technically you don't really need to "understand" the US numbers, you just need to understand what information was not expected and how it kind of will cause a "dislocation from value" to allow you to trade overprice/underprice. Right?
  • #27,486
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:38am Jul 6, 2018 7:38am
Quoting Godzilla
if u have shorts. stay in the game. shouldnt be going past 1850; if your risk appetite allows
I say 1.1780 and we will be falling again.
  • #27,487
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:39am Jul 6, 2018 7:39am
Eur at R2 in daily pivot 1.1757
yes yes yes
  • #27,488
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:39am Jul 6, 2018 7:39am
Quoting TudorIoan
Welcome to the NFP "experts" show! Do you realise how many idiots believe they can understand that US data numbers right now?! Can you imagine them?! {image}
agreed. the move was already determined. the price was setting itself up for a push higher due to teh dip at 1590. that happened a few days ago
  • #27,489
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:43am Jul 6, 2018 7:43am
Quoting Godzilla
if u have shorts. stay in the game. shouldnt be going past 1850; if your risk appetite allows
So it will go to 1840 because that's where your tp is but it can't get past 1850. Got it.
  • #27,490
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:43am Jul 6, 2018 7:43am
Quoting basit1
{quote} I say 1.1780 and we will be falling again.
whats the resistance at 1780? im not seeing it. temporary perhaps
  • #27,491
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:44am Jul 6, 2018 7:44am
Quoting skillz16
{quote} Haha, actually had some experience with institutional traders. They actually are more about the fundamentals with smaller amount of tech mixed in (at least the prop part, whatever is left of that which is closest to what is done here) - what info is not expected in the market and driving it up. But yeah, most retailers might not even want to go this way I'll admit. Technically you don't really need to "understand" the US numbers, you just need to understand what information was not expected and how it kind of will cause a "dislocation...
Obviously only the unexpected counts, the "surprise". Because you very well know the market can "price in" a fundamental event when is no more a surprise.
This time obviously the Average Hourly Earnings were more important (surprisingly) than the payrolls, because the consumer inflation indicate the real "heat" in the current monetary policy context... and bla-bla-bla more and more on that
Member
  • #27,492
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:45am Jul 6, 2018 7:45am
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} So it will go to 1840 because that's where your tp is but it can't get past 1850. Got it.
its called a double top. your name is relevant and appropriate.

i could be wrong of course. wouldnt be the first time.
  • #27,493
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:46am Jul 6, 2018 7:46am
Quoting Godzilla
{quote} its called a double top. your name is relevant and appropriate.
Weren't you the one that kept saying 1480 and 2 hours later said 1840? I don't think i am confusing you...yes you are too good! Teach me pls!
  • #27,494
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:47am Jul 6, 2018 7:47am
third target hit
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Instagram - FX_ELITE_Europe | In Search of #BIG_R | Need No Small Pips
  • #27,495
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:47am Jul 6, 2018 7:47am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Obviously only the unexpected counts, the "surprise". Because you very well know the market can "price in" a fundamental event. This time obviously the Average Hourly Earnings were more important than the payrolls, because the consumer inflation indicate the real "heat" in the current monetary poplicy context... and bla-bla-bla more and more on that
Yeah but don't you do this in your trading?: learn what is an "undervalued" (buy) price, learn what is an "overvalued" (sell) price - about, you will never nail it - it is an estimate range around the current price for each of these...

Then use news catalysts to enter? Since overvalued and undervalued dictate that the price will not usually trade there for too long?

And this approach would mean that you will need to know when others are/will overreact to (unexpected) numbers - in particular if the overreaction effect will last a few day(s) or not. Because often that causes it to get irrational for a day or two and carry it past most entries for long/short in certain news release situations.

Don't you do this? Or is your approach pure tech?
  • #27,496
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:48am Jul 6, 2018 7:48am
Eur/usd 15 m
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yes yes yes
  • #27,497
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:48am Jul 6, 2018 7:48am
Quoting Stillearnin
{quote} Weren't you the one that kept saying 1480 and 2 hours later said 1840? I don't think i am confusing you...yes you are too good! Teach me pls!
that would be me. i keep things interesting. but i did say it 2 days ago
  • #27,498
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:49am Jul 6, 2018 7:49am
Shorted 1.1750 just now. Targets below. Stops 1.1820 area.

Initial sell .01 lot
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #27,499
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:52am Jul 6, 2018 7:52am
Quoting skillz16
{quote} Yeah but don't you do this in your trading?: learn what is an "undervalued" (buy) price, learn what is an "overvalued" (sell) price - about, you will never nail it - it is an estimate range around the current price for each of these... Then use news catalysts to enter? Since overvalued and undervalued dictate that the price will not usually trade there for too long? And this approach would mean that you will need to know when others are/will overreact to (unexpected) news. Because often that causes it to get irrational for a day or two and...
I go mostly technically, but I use to add fundamentals to improve prediction...
But I have never, ever, traded when NFP!!! Is too much for me!
I consider it pure gamblig.

(no offence anybody, I admire those who really can make money trading every NFP)
Member
  • #27,500
  • Jul 6, 2018 7:53am Jul 6, 2018 7:53am
Don't think an unemployment rate higer than expected is bad news for a currency at all time lows, it just can't get much lower.

NFP will drive EUR/USD medium term, in the meantime we wait for US stock market to crash and debt crisis to kick in due to higher inflation because of excessive QE and higher interest rates as a result.

Recession is long overdue! This one will be more like depression imo.
What's that smell? ---- I smell money!
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