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Pivot Trading

  • #21,181
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:03am Jul 3, 2018 11:03am
Quoting pgr45za
{quote} Tell us the truth Davit. You mirror imaged your equity curve. It's actually rising. MM is key.
I just wanted to show nothing wrong taking losses.I average 6-8k a month.....last year this time my account was around 20k.Should give you perspective and I have taken thousands out as well to pay mortgage etc.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,182
  • Edited 11:15am Jul 3, 2018 11:05am | Edited 11:15am
  •  Egbert
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: The Weekly Pivot is the only verdic | 1,081 Posts | Online Now
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #21,183
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:08am Jul 3, 2018 11:08am
Quoting Egbert
One of my earlier trades, {image}
Should retail AU numbers print red this may easily head around 850.I am holding mine
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,184
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:09am Jul 3, 2018 11:09am
  •  Egbert
  • Joined Aug 2017 | Status: The Weekly Pivot is the only verdic | 1,081 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Davit
{quote} Should retail AU numbers print red this may easily head around 850.I am holding mine
I'm still holding too,
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #21,185
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:21am Jul 3, 2018 11:21am
XAUUSD short (gold).
Rejecting weekly pivot.
  • #21,186
  • Jul 3, 2018 11:38am Jul 3, 2018 11:38am
Davit, good night! Now it's 00: 30 o'clock in China.
  • #21,187
  • Jul 3, 2018 12:10pm Jul 3, 2018 12:10pm
Quoting pgr45za
XAUUSD short (gold). Rejecting weekly pivot.
Im long from the .61S bounce. If it finds support above the weekly open price then ill hold a bit more.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #21,188
  • Jul 3, 2018 12:37pm Jul 3, 2018 12:37pm
made a little comparing NZ economy sentiment versus ZXY MN chart
since 2009 total changes versus previous sentiment is 16, and first month candle change according to sentiment is 6. 6/16=37.5%
in meantime holding NY NC longs
just my 2 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,189
  • Jul 3, 2018 1:53pm Jul 3, 2018 1:53pm
Quoting pgr45za
XAUUSD short (gold). Rejecting weekly pivot.
Personal opinion is to stay away of shorting XAUUSD at the current level... Sad that I didn't took the long at S61, fucking work! XD Also considering I'm long at NZDUSD I would at least wait until signals of rejection at R61/R78 zone

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Building a Freedom All Time Return: 5,178.8%
  • #21,190
  • Jul 3, 2018 2:00pm Jul 3, 2018 2:00pm
Quoting Davit
The stupidity I read here daily is amazing to me!I just know only handful of people here on this thread will succeed and that's true in the industry as well.Ask yourself what does this small minority of traders doing things differently.Same system same rules! Example Voty whom I dearly love struggles and been struggling for years and Mr Aussie is kicking ass.You find the difference!Read Mr Aussie posts and study him. You might just be amazed that he simply is applying the system!That's the key following instruction, rules! Some can't apply even...
My Boss, don't blame them - knowledge and information are not the same thing. Not everybody can actually create knowledge from information. That is why some fail at same place where other(s) pass(es).
  • #21,191
  • Jul 3, 2018 2:23pm Jul 3, 2018 2:23pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} good for you! You got interest user name....Considering entire family was gun down by the bolsheviks ...
Looks like my local Liquor Store is going to be happy. Closed my Corona Trade.With a nice profit today.
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Fib Traders get it right 61.8% to 78.6% of the time. NR
  • #21,192
  • Jul 3, 2018 3:26pm Jul 3, 2018 3:26pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} For sure, price action on that news, but interesting to see how Europe reacts when they get on the trading desks ! https://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=785100
Lol EU agrees that North African countries should open asylum centres in exchange for money.

But those countries all rejected (not their problem) and werent even consulted. So this worthless agreement isnt going to change a thing.
  • #21,193
  • Jul 3, 2018 3:34pm Jul 3, 2018 3:34pm
Quoting pgr45za
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/n...ectid=12082476 Probably making N gain. But will it last? Read the article.
Grant Robertson might be trying to talk up business confidence in NZ, but we have threats of strikes by nurses, teachers, principals (some the first in more than 20 years). That doesn't stimulate much confidence at all.
  • #21,194
  • Jul 3, 2018 3:56pm Jul 3, 2018 3:56pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
{quote} Im long from the .61S bounce. If it finds support above the weekly open price then ill hold a bit more.
That's a good way of confirming the upwards move, kind of like HH, HL (you're looking for that HL).

Here's what I was thinking:

1. ADR% >200%
2. I predicted that it'd bounce off weekly pivot (it did).
3. I expect a retracement to 1245. Why? Do your homework, No spoonfeeding here

Medium-term move is up, provided we see a softer FOMC and NFP with a delaying of USD IR hikes or softer economy.
This is towards the end of the week.
  • #21,195
  • Jul 3, 2018 4:06pm Jul 3, 2018 4:06pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} Grant Robertson might be trying to talk up business confidence in NZ, but we have threats of strikes by nurses, teachers, principals (some the first in more than 20 years). That doesn't stimulate much confidence at all.
It's excellent that you're in NZ.
That way we get some "boots on the ground" take on things.

THIS is EXACTLY the kind of intelligence/insight that I think we should master in this thread, and I take the liberty (with Davit's permission) of asking those like ikdenk to help us with this boots on the ground insight for the country you are in, whenever we are analyzing a certain forex pair.

We all know that Governments sugar coat everything and I'm often reminded of something that a professor friend used to say in class: Never believe anything, until it's oficially denied! I wonder if Grant Robertson (NZ GOV) isn't doing much of the same ...
  • #21,196
  • Jul 3, 2018 4:41pm Jul 3, 2018 4:41pm
Quoting Axleman
{quote} FAS, based on your 5min TF. what do you think? you may want to Quickly & Carefully read page 1 again & again...& then read more pages...I don't know whats going to happen next? but I have a good guess...read between the lines... Best wishes!
I will take a look to the materials, If you have any suggestion let me know
  • #21,197
  • Jul 3, 2018 5:50pm Jul 3, 2018 5:50pm
Quoting pgr45za
{quote} It's excellent that you're in NZ. That way we get some "boots on the ground" take on things. THIS is EXACTLY the kind of intelligence/insight that I think we should master in this thread, and I take the liberty (with Davit's permission) of asking those like ikdenk to help us with this boots on the ground insight for the country you are in, whenever we are analyzing a certain forex pair. We all know that Governments sugar coat everything and I'm often reminded of something that a professor friend used to say in class: Never believe anything,...
There are other aspects as well.

NZ has the highest interest rate of all the major currencies, hence the swap for buying NZD is big compared with the others, see swap for e.g. EURNZD.

I think the EURNZD has been pushed up just before the summer (Northern Hemiphere) lull so that the MM can short it and go on holiday (same applies to EURAUD).

The long term fundamentals are expressed in the swap, that's why I almost always trade in the direction of positive swap, particularly if the negative swap is big.
  • #21,198
  • Jul 3, 2018 6:01pm Jul 3, 2018 6:01pm
Quoting ikdenk
{quote} There are other aspects as well. NZ has the highest interest rate of all the major currencies, hence the swap for buying NZD is big compared with the others, see swap for e.g. EURNZD. I think the EURNZD has been pushed up just before the summer (Northern Hemiphere) lull so that the MM can short it and go on holiday (same applies to EURAUD). The long term fundamentals are expressed in the swap, that's why I almost always trade in the direction of positive swap, particularly if the negative swap is big.
Interesting. But, other than the IR differential, why do you say that NZD is fundamentally strong? Even with the new leftist gov.

Thanks for your input.
  • #21,199
  • Jul 3, 2018 8:38pm Jul 3, 2018 8:38pm
AUD moving up on better then expected retail sales.
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #21,200
  • Jul 3, 2018 8:42pm Jul 3, 2018 8:42pm
Quoting Cryptosurf
AUD moving up on better then expected retail sales.
I was holding AN shorts thinking might of printed red but obviously its green number however not that great number so I think this spike likely to collapse.
MIssed the UJ swing low was sleeping very hot here in Boston and my main AC not working.Got just small window one on my PC room.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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