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Pivot Trading

  • #21,041
  • Jul 1, 2018 6:00am Jul 1, 2018 6:00am
Inserted Video
1 simple mistake makes you become 1000x better.
  • #21,042
  • Jul 1, 2018 6:59am Jul 1, 2018 6:59am
Quoting oswell
https://youtu.be/sg4YzRhILFE
this is exactly where some need to stick in their mind.and exactly what i apply on my way since very long time
Inserted Video
minute 22:50
Take what you can, give nothing back
  • #21,043
  • Jul 1, 2018 7:19am Jul 1, 2018 7:19am
Quoting Davit
{quote} nice reults I agree with you most of us take losses.I take losses when trade does not look legit anymore and that does not have to get predefined amount.I must believe in a trade and when I don't I bail out. Keep going you are getting better and better!
Fun fact.
When I created live account with 2000€ in mid February to try out your method, I thought that if it pays for my daughter's volleyball training, which is 39€/month, that would be really nice. June's 291€ would pay over half year training cost, so now I'm thinking that it could pay my daughter's and even for my own training . No high hopes, still a small hobby though .

Just finished calendar and now I can enjoy the end of the weekend . Have a good day all
  • #21,044
  • Jul 1, 2018 7:37am Jul 1, 2018 7:37am
Just my thoughts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.D1.png Size: 118 KB
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #21,045
  • Edited 8:29am Jul 1, 2018 7:37am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting Husky77
{quote} this is exactly where some need to stick in their mind.and exactly what i apply on my way since very long time https://youtu.be/sg4YzRhILFE?t=1373 minute 22:50
Exactly Bro! change the way you think , using smaller Lot is the idea , depanding on you account size , even if I have 10,000$ in my account I still use 0.01 on my lot when the market is going againts you , you keep on firing the entry on every pivot point when you see a PA , if it doesn’t work repeat the same things , some traders here might still holding the trade on NZD , anything going up will 100% going down sooner or later , its because we are using smaller lot that's what makes us still survive in the market and it doesn't even make you worried.


As what Davit Say : usually happens after you throw the towel take the loss then price reverses and why I insist incremental losses taken never at once unless you must.

This is just amazing , less worried about your DD , because all of us don't know what is going to happen in the future.
1 simple mistake makes you become 1000x better.
  • #21,046
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:32am Jul 1, 2018 11:32am
Quoting Egbert
{image}
Try not overthinking.NZD may bounce strongly.Focus on pivots!
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,047
  • Jul 1, 2018 11:33am Jul 1, 2018 11:33am
Quoting Egbert
Morning Davit, If you can just give your thoughts on this chart and yes I know its not part of your pivots, but hopefully it will agree to the sell taken according to the pivots on the chart. If you think this is not relevant you may dislike this post and I will delete it. Or may I share this just on supporting you on a stronger GBP. PS: Look pass the trades taken, I see a stronger GBP? Regards, {image}
Yes continued GBP gain is likely
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,048
  • Jul 1, 2018 12:12pm Jul 1, 2018 12:12pm
Calandar

Tone of my canvas.Going into slow holiday summer days and range is pretty common and focus should be back exploiting this.USD may continue to decline continuing its corrections.Heavy news on GBP CAD USD and AUD.AUD may sharply decline specially against NZD after Tues.

Monday
GBP Manufacturing PMI could surprise everyone printing better then forecast if so GBP trajectory of going higher will find new wind.

USD-ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.2 58.7
forecast is red but could print worse since all that tariff issues may have had some effect.

What is ISM?
A country’s economy is as strong as its supply chain. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) measures the economic activity from both the manufacturing side as well as the service side. Formed in 1915, ISM is the first management institute in the world with over 40,000 members in 90 countries. Since it can draw from information gathered from the surveying its large membership of purchasing managers, the ISM economic news releases are carefully watched by Forex traders around the world as a reliable guide to economic activity.
ISM publishes three surveys; manufacturing, construction, and services. Published on the first business day of the month, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is compiled from surveys of 400 manufacturing purchasing managers. These purchasing managers from different sectors represent five different fields; inventories and employment, speed of supplier deliveries, production level, and new orders from customers.
In addition, ISM construction PMI is released on the second business day of the month, followed by services on the third business day. Forex traders will look to these releases to determine the risks at any given time in the market.
Forex Market Impact
The Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing PMI’s are big market movers. When these reports come out at 10:30 AM ET, currencies can become very volatile. Since these economic releases are based on the previous month’s historical data gathered directly from industry professionals, Forex traders can determine if the US economy is expanding or contracting.
Forex traders will compare the previous month’s number with the forecasted number that economists have published. If the released PMI number is better than the previous number and higher than the forecasted number, the US dollar tends to rally. This is where fundamental and technical analysis comes together to create a trade setup.
Manufacturing sector is roughly 12% of U.S. overall economic growth.

Tues
RBA rate expectation is same and I think AN could finally go into correction after Tues!I still have my shorts here.Nice level.
AUD-Retail Sales m/m .3% 0.4% red here will make AN going south more then likely!
AUD Trade Balance is positive forecast however retail sales in my opinion is more important!

GBP Construction PMI forecast is slightly green

Weds
GBP Services PMI 53.9 54.0 I anticipate green number here

Thurs
BOE Gov Carney Speaks could he surprise the market by hint of future rate hike? Yes

USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change this number is often wrong so I usually don't take it seriously since real number is released next day.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 58.3 58.6 red forecast does not look good for USD bulls here.
Crude Oil Inventories if continued negative will be good for CAD
FOMC Meeting Minutes-I anticipate neutral tone here even dovish.

Friday
CAD-Employment Change
CAD-Trade Balance
CAD-Unemployment Rate
any above green numbers would be great for CAD specially relating to employment.
USD-Non-Farm Employment Change 200K 223K less then forecast will sent USD down quick!
Unemployment Rate-may move higher then 3.8 notice unemployment claims are raising so something is not working.

My overall trades are solid going into new week.Carrying over trades from last week still bearish on USD and commodity pairs very likely continue to gain and NZD may get a boast specially against AUD


Have fun! Make money!!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,049
  • Jul 1, 2018 1:59pm Jul 1, 2018 1:59pm
Hi Davit,

Thank you for this terrific thread. I started from the beginning and have read about 35 pages so far. A couple of questions:

1. How do you decide to set limit orders at a specific pivot vs. relying on price action to enter? Was it because of your 70 hour work week (do you still do that? BTW what do you do) or specific market conditions?

2. Regarding pa, do you look for a certain pattern, a break of a zone or just a strong push?

3. I really like the way you applied the concepts from the Bird Watching book. At that time you traded a few specific pairs only in one direction. Do you still use this strategy?

4. Do you think it is best to continue reading from the beginning of the thread or to skip to a certain place?

Thank you
  • #21,050
  • Edited 3:34pm Jul 1, 2018 2:03pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Try not overthinking.NZD may bounce strongly.Focus on pivots! regards
For this reason I kept my longs on NJ and NU, NJ is in good profit while NU caused some DD stil in the acceptable norms. Started building shorts in AN thinking that the some corection is imminent only hoping I didn't rush it..
whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #21,051
  • Jul 1, 2018 2:16pm Jul 1, 2018 2:16pm
Quoting joyride
{quote} For this reason I kept my longs on NJ and NU, NJ is in good profit while NU caused some DD stil in the acceptable norms. Started building shorts in AU thinking that the some corection is imminent only hoping I didn't rush it..
not good idea to buy USD considering how OB it was and now going into correction.AUD may lose to NZD next week but still gain on Yen and USD
Notice calendar outline.Notice poor numbers on USD at least forecast numbers...
You have to look ahead that's what market does.Not saying your AU shorts may not work out but IMO we are heading 76+specially if Feds keep rate unchanged on next meeting
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,052
  • Jul 1, 2018 2:27pm Jul 1, 2018 2:27pm
Just more proof for a stronger GBPAUD this week.

Davit with your approval just sharing my structure, looking for longs heading into support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #21,053
  • Edited 3:33pm Jul 1, 2018 2:44pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} not good idea to buy USD considering how OB it was and now going into correction.AUD may lose to NZD next week but still gain on Yen and USD Notice calendar outline.Notice poor numbers on USD at least forecast numbers... You have to look ahead that's what market does.Not saying your AU shorts may not work out but IMO we are heading 76+specially if Feds keep rate unchanged on next meeting
Agree, personally not buying USD, I stil think it was already priced before the last FED meeting and NU way oversold reaching strong support lvls. My longs on it are with small lots and also shorted AN with a caution when comes to size. Will wait and see how the economic events develop before adding any more positions.. IMHO..
whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #21,054
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:19pm Jul 1, 2018 3:19pm
Quoting joyride
{quote} Agree, personally not buying USD, I stil think it was already priced before the last FED meeting and NU way oversold reaching strong support lvls. My longs on it are with small lots and also shorted AU with a caution when comes to size. Will wait and see how the economic events develop before adding any more positions.. IMHO..
Good day friend,

Just two things standing out from above statement,

"personally not buying USD"

"also shorted AU"

What did you then buy? IMHO

Regards,
We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
  • #21,055
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:33pm Jul 1, 2018 3:33pm
Quoting Egbert
{quote} Good day friend, Just two things standing out from above statement, "personally not buying USD" "also shorted AU" What did you then buy? IMHO Regards,
Hey bud, thanks a lot for this post I just noticed my typo. I meant AN not AU as we were talking about NZD. The devil is in the details and I missed this one as I am using my phone bow. I will edit it now. What I meant is that USD is overbought and I keep my bias bearish while NZD is opposite IMHO. Apologies if i mislead anybody.
whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #21,056
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:53pm Jul 1, 2018 4:53pm
Quoting Husky77
{quote} Newbie : alarm alarm ! ohh ohh short AU short AU! after 10 minutes same newbie : oooohhh heck it was a typo
No need for accusations or hatred my friend, belive it or not everybody makes mistakes. Maning up to them and admitting is more important. I apologize to Davit by posting these charts like this but I dont have access to a computer right now. Just want to show you that it was actually a mistake as these orders are from the past week.

Regards
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whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
  • #21,057
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:05pm Jul 1, 2018 5:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} every situation is different.You do what's best for you AN could open Monday lot lower... I guess I wasting time here talking about EDGE probability etc.
Am I getting good at this or what.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,058
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:08pm Jul 1, 2018 5:08pm
looking for small bounce on EG to short it.This week is GBP news heavy and forecasts not bad
(had you done your calendar you would of known it)
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,059
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:15pm Jul 1, 2018 5:15pm
Quoting Dd111
Hi Davit, Thank you for this terrific thread. I started from the beginning and have read about 35 pages so far. A couple of questions: 1. How do you decide to set limit orders at a specific pivot vs. relying on price action to enter? Was it because of your 70 hour work week (do you still do that? BTW what do you do) or specific market conditions? 2. Regarding pa, do you look for a certain pattern, a break of a zone or just a strong push? 3. I really like the way you applied the concepts from the Bird Watching book. At that time you traded a few...
There should be complied version of key posts on clipboard.Yes I still trade certain pairs mostly same direction.I don't use limit orders.I work less now 30hrs a week.
have fun
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #21,060
  • Jul 1, 2018 5:51pm Jul 1, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting Husky77
{quote} oki doki.will refrain from such jokes as english is not my first language and might be wrong understood while i cant express my tone in text.I have no problem to apologise if my words did any offense to mr joyride.so apologise.no offense intention at all. cheers to all and have a great week ahead
All good brotha, as I said earlier we all make mistakes and I don't have problems being called out on them. At the end this is how we learn and. All is well. Moving on to pivot trading, keeping my positions open for now but not adding to them until I see how the week unfolds. I wish you all a very green week and month ahead.

Regards
whether you think you can or can't either way you are right
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