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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #181
  • May 26, 2018 2:38pm May 26, 2018 2:38pm
Quoting Silver
{quote} I do not think that there is any one right answer to your question. You first have to decide if you never want to be stopped out or if you are willing to take some kind of loss. To never get stopped out will mean a very big SL maybe around 1000-2000, but if you calculate that as a percentage of your capital then you will place only very small trades. If you decide that you want to bypass all spikes up to 150 pips then you have answered your own question. Remember your stop loss is always a percentage of your capital and therefor determine...
Thanks Silver for your inputs...
  • #182
  • May 30, 2018 9:59am May 30, 2018 9:59am
Some of you don't understand why I invest time to prevent people from trading forex with little capital, overleveraged using bucket shops till they are addicted and getting destroyed by an industry designed and finetuned to get their money.....

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/

Don't buy the dream they constantly sell on all channels - it's just one big lie.

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.
  • #183
  • Jun 26, 2018 6:04am Jun 26, 2018 6:04am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Some of you don't understand why I invest time to prevent people from trading forex with little capital, overleveraged using bucket shops till they are addicted and getting destroyed by an industry designed and finetuned to get their money..... http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/ Don't buy the dream they constantly sell on all channels - it's just one big lie. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.
Your efforts are admirable and whilst I understand you motives, do you not think you are flogging a dead horse? Look at points 5 and 6 of your own first post. No one wants to hear the truth about the forex business.They are selling a dream to those who are vulnerable enough to buy into it. For the industry insiders (and this includes the brokers, the forums, the vendors, the vendor support sites etc. etc.) this is hugely profitable. More so than even the gaming industry. If you look at the statistics for online gaming (not poker) you will find similar results. Retail forex is just another branch of the gaming industry only its far less regulated and the people behind it have managed to persuade the masses that its a business and as such can be learnt. Bollocks to that.

Once that is clearly understood - and it took me 5 years, I am a slow learner, one starts to view it in a different light. I still trade forex and enjoy it but I do not try and live from the proceeds. I also bet on horse racing and treat forex in a similar fashion. I am actually up for this year and last year. Nothing to write home about but better than being down. I have no system, I simply make bets. For example when the Brits voted to leave the EU this struck me as bad for sterling so I bet it would go down. It did. I take other bets, some win, some lose. When something is trending strongly, I bet the trend will continue.

I also trade stocks. One thing I learnt many years ago is to bet on stocks that produce better than expected quarterly earnings. I read somewhere that statistically these outperform and it has worked for me, albeit with the help of a massive bull market. That said, if it turns, I will start to bet on stocks that underperform expectations. I apply this to forex as well. It works quite well.

Sorry for the long waffling post but I cannot see you changing those already brainwashed to believe you can treat this a business. You cannot but if you are able to control yourself you can perhaps treat it as a casino and if you use a little intelligence you might just win a few bets and have some fun.

PS; Just as I know one or two people who make money gambling online, there might be a microscopic number that make money from forex using a system. I suspect that success is 95% down to MM but as I am not one of them, this is just a guess.
  • #184
  • Jun 26, 2018 8:03pm Jun 26, 2018 8:03pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
Some of you don't understand why I invest time to prevent people from trading forex with little capital, overleveraged using bucket shops till they are addicted and getting destroyed by an industry designed and finetuned to get their money..... http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2...tive-sum-game/ Don't buy the dream they constantly sell on all channels - it's just one big lie. Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.

How do you explain this guy on here ??????? Is this not proof you can make big money. He said he trades 200 lot size per pip .ITs in the tread.

His thread is a decade old still going strong and makes 30-40 pips daily average. 3 percent daily most days, he said.

He has many followers who trade his method,and swear by the method.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236210

Hes a retail Forex client
  • #185
  • Jun 26, 2018 9:10pm Jun 26, 2018 9:10pm
Some will win,
Some will lose,
Some were born to
sing the blues.

Inserted Video
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #186
  • Jun 27, 2018 7:16am Jun 27, 2018 7:16am
Quoting goose4
{quote} How do you explain this guy on here ??????? Is this not proof you can make big money. He said he trades 200 lot size per pip .ITs in the tread. His thread is a decade old still going strong and makes 30-40 pips daily average. 3 percent daily most days, he said. He has many followers who trade his method,and swear by the method. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236210 Hes a retail Forex client
I really do not wish to be a naysayer but its one thing to claim something works and quite another to prove it. I am not suggesting Kosta1 has any obligation to produce proof but I for one like to take everything that lacks any proof with a large pinch of salt. The fact that he has lots of followers etc and has had the thread for years is proof of nothing except perhaps that people are desperate to find someone who has made it in forex.

If you need an example that it can be done chose someone trading in realtime. I can save you the time. Look at the Carpe Diem thread. There you had Delatone trading in realtime and listing his trades as and when he made them and as he closed them. No smoke and mirrors.Posting trades in hindsight proves nothing at all. I say had because D1 seems to have made a packet and has semi retired. There is also Littspaniard on the same thread. He also posts his trades in realtime. The real interest is not how and when they make their trades but how they manage them.
  • #187
  • Jun 27, 2018 11:28am Jun 27, 2018 11:28am
Forex is nothing but a zero sum game. A trader needs to understand the risky nature of the forex market since majority of the traders is facing failures due to lack of experience and understanding of the market. It is wise to trade with smaller amount with the help of various risk management tools to engage is safe trading. All in all, a trader needs to acquire adequate trading skills with the help of demo trading accounts first.
  • #188
  • Sep 10, 2018 12:14pm Sep 10, 2018 12:14pm
Due to ESMA regulations, which are of great benefit to retail traders, better stats will be gathered about retail forex trading.

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...nts-post-esma/

https://www.financemagnates.com/wp-c...Percentage.jpg

However, the clues out of these numbers is really completely misleading, as typical for the forex industry..... they call 35% winners a whopping ratio.... how ironic is that.... would you play a game with a success ratio of just 16 - 34% and repeat it over and over again?

Quess how long it takes to wipe out your account.....? Exactly. And the bad thing is that research clearly shows that looking a retail traders data, a trader who is a winner in year one does not have a significantly higher chance to be a winner in year 2....3.....4.....5.

This is why you can show with a very simple simulation model how fast retail traders will lose their money.

Over 5 Year time period, without black swans or brokers going bankrupt or other threads to your trading account, a win rate of about 1.9% can be still explained simply by pure luck.....98.1 % will lose, most will wipe out their account.

Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers!
  • #189
  • Sep 11, 2018 2:12pm Sep 11, 2018 2:12pm
Quoting SandroFlora
Forex is nothing but a zero sum game. A trader needs to understand the risky nature of the forex market since majority of the traders is facing failures due to lack of experience and understanding of the market. It is wise to trade with smaller amount with the help of various risk management tools to engage is safe trading. All in all, a trader needs to acquire adequate trading skills with the help of demo trading accounts first.
I don't believe in zero sum game nature of forex because basically we exchange money which is part of the equation MV=PY. If the country output grows, the money mass expands what in turn means that the pie is increasing and it's no the zero sum game.
  • #190
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:10am Sep 16, 2018 5:10am
It's important to understand this and what it means for a retail traders.....

https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...otagonist-iex/

... just one puzzle piece more to explain why retail forex is a negative game for losers.
  • #191
  • Sep 16, 2018 5:16am Sep 16, 2018 5:16am
Quoting HudithePfupf
It's important to understand this and what it means for a retail traders..... https://www.financemagnates.com/fore...otagonist-iex/ ... just one puzzle piece more to explain why retail forex is a negative game for losers.
That is great news H. I hate freakin' front runners. Finally moves are afoot to restrict this unbridled exploitation. :-)
  • #192
  • Sep 18, 2018 3:17am Sep 18, 2018 3:17am
My comments are based on me humble personal experiences .
The heading of this thread is so true ,,,
( Quote ) Forex - A negative sum game for losers
But for many there is a good side to the above reality ,, and that is ,,,,
Sadly that applies to every type of business in the world ! ! ! ! NO Exceptions
The only reason it is so amplified in the trading arena is the fact that it is very easy to become a self employed ( a Trader ) , cause it only requires a $200 account , and no one to answer to or hold you accountable for anything .
But most traders do not have a professional approach to trading , nor put in the required time and the effort to study this business correctly and fully until they master the game ,, which can be mastered with a very high percentage of accuracy .
Cheers
LOVE YOUR GAME WITH A PASSION ,,,,, WORK WITH A VISION ! ! ! ! !
  • #193
  • Nov 14, 2018 11:04am Nov 14, 2018 11:04am
BTC/USD has brocken 6000...... and now retailers trading BTC using any sort of leverage will be punished hard.

Although BTC is already down about 10% and most other cryptos up to -20% I see almost no headlines...... interesting.... if it would go up like this you would see the marketing machine in overdrive to suck in new victims. Same mechanics as in retail forex.... manipulation on an epic scale.

I wonder at which point mining will stop an the miners will go belly up in large numbers.
For retailers mining was profitable at aroudnd 6000 USD if you have the highest efficient mining rig at around 4.8 cents / kwh..... just to compensate for the power you consume to mine...... So the places where you can still mine are getting rare at a fast pace.

A single miner might control more than 50% soon and then we will see what happens.
  • #194
  • Nov 14, 2018 1:46pm Nov 14, 2018 1:46pm
i don't think its about the money; not anymore at least
they are not stealing us but kicking us away from the game, the world looks better when u are rich living with 7 billion poor, but maybe their real goal is something else at all ! who know!

i like that 2 years average to quit, i think i'm there, and happy everyday to u mf secret society
  • #195
  • Nov 25, 2018 8:18am Nov 25, 2018 8:18am
Speculative crypto trading is a negative sum game for losers - even worse than retail forex, because it's still far less regulated.

Looking at wealth distribution regarding btc adresses:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 44 KB

 

  1. So about 97% of all bitcoin adresses have less than 1 btc on it (retailers with own wallets)
  2. Within the biggest 100 wallets many are cold wallets of crypto exchanges, so combined tiny speculative crypto balances of retailers... those who are losing their shirt these days (these are the btc assets fo the very dumb crypto retail speculators - those who get milked most).
  3. Most of these retail accounts will probably be below 1 btc, but not a few of them lose their shirts because of greed.
  4. You can still see lots of small retailers jump in an buy <0.001 BTC at the crypto exchanges in pure hope of reversal...
  5. Meanwhile the deep pockets are dumping their BTC at blocks of thousends or even 10 thousends of BTC
  6. the crypto exchanges main function is to spread the loss to as many retailers possible
  7. affiliate marketing firms are in overdrive to suck in new victims
  8. those who push their btc into the masses are spending serious marketing money to create new speculative buyers
  9. It's clear to me that 97% of all involved in BTC have almost no influence on price at all.... they are just pure victims like in retail forex.
  10. A very few are deciding if and how BTC prices drop or rise....good luck in trying to bet them at a game they control by 97%


I just don't get it why something so easily to see based on fully visible public data isn't ringing the bell at the regulators yet.
Price manipulation in overdrive.... incredible....and most of the actors will have learned their proffession in retail forex.

  • #196
  • Dec 8, 2018 4:44am Dec 8, 2018 4:44am
Forex retail client losses overview thanks to ESMA!

Finally we are getting numbers to debunk the myth of profitable retail traders..... they do not exist in the long run:

https://www.financemagnates.com/wp-c...Percentage.jpg

Keep in mind that this is still a short therm picture....in the long run over several years the percentages of clients with losses rise and rise to approach a number close to 100 percent. No that these numbers are over a longer period than just the 3 months data provided by CFTC, the numbers are already much worse as to be expected.

A simple mathematical model based on a zero sum model, an efficient market and considering commission, spread and rollover costs explains that >98% of all clients have to lose money after 5 years. The rest can still be explained by pure luck..... so the number will climb in the longer run to about 99.8%.

It won't reach 100%.... there are a very few that profit even over a period of 20 years.
It's not a question of skill, it's mainly a question of using little to no leverage and simply adapt.
Very boring way to trade and as risks are limited profit is limited as well.

Conclusion:

  1. If you trade with little trading capital using significant leverage your chance to be profitable in the longer run is Zero.
  2. If you trade with significant capital using no leverage you have a tiny chance to be profitable. However, your gains are small compared to the time you invest and there are far better ways to earn money or achieve capital gains on your savings.
  3. Retail forex trading is a negative sum game for losers.

  • #197
  • Dec 8, 2018 11:01am Dec 8, 2018 11:01am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Forex retail client losses overview thanks to ESMA! Finally we are getting numbers to debunk the myth of profitable retail traders..... they do not exist in the long run: {image} Keep in mind that this is still a short therm picture....in the long run over several years the percentages of clients with losses rise and rise to approach a number close to 100 percent. No that these numbers are over a longer period than just the 3 months data provided by CFTC, the numbers are already much worse as to be expected. A simple mathematical model based on...
Every now an then I come here and entertain myself reading your conspiracy theories. Hudi is wilding, better get prepared!

You know what? My gains are tasting even sweeter having people like you trying to hate with fundamental explanations (which are biased nealry everywhere, but that's fine). It fits the purpose.

But let me break your beautiful argumenation:

You are relying on all these numbers. But simple Monte Carlo simulations are not sufficient to produce a realistic picture of the reality. Repeating that they would does not make it any better. Furthermore you provided pictures of numbers I presented in my thread already months ago (where are the sources to your claims of the later part from your post by the way?). And there I also showed the lack of information they include.

Simple example. Out of 100 traders, let there be 90% noobs + gamblers who lose their 50$ account. The remaining 10 traders got funds of 50.000 each and earn 10% a year...

... Got it? You still have these misleading values, but a totally different picture, which is way closer to reality than your hating.

It boils down to the same risk/reward/money/time relation no matter what stategy you are using. But if you like it or not, it is possible to make money here.

The only thing your constant naysaying and hating proves is, that you just did not made it until today. Try harder, Hudi! I'll be back in some month enjoying your reply.
  • #198
  • Dec 9, 2018 4:49am Dec 9, 2018 4:49am
Quoting Drolph
{quote} Every now an then I come here and entertain myself reading your conspiracy theories. Hudi is wilding, better get prepared! You know what? My gains are tasting even sweeter having people like you trying to hate with fundamental explanations (which are biased nealry everywhere, but that's fine). It fits the purpose. But let me break your beautiful argumenation: You are relying on all these numbers. But simple Monte Carlo simulations are not sufficient to produce a realistic picture of the reality. Repeating that they would does not make it...
Hi Drolph,
very interesting.
Do you have any account statistics or TE, that shows us what you claim, being a successful trader?!

Thank you.
  • #199
  • Dec 10, 2018 1:33am Dec 10, 2018 1:33am
Quoting Fx-Gamer
{quote} Hi Drolph, very interesting. Do you have any account statistics or TE, that shows us what you claim, being a successful trader?! Thank you.
I do not share any TE or other detailled trade statistics, as I do not allow to gain insight into my trade logics. I said it would be possible to make money in this "business", but I did not say it would be easy. It is by far not!
I am coding strategies on my own to create a portfolio for a diversified trading approach. So showing single performance curves would most likely lead to reactions like "cherrypicking", just because I did not let my pants fully down.

But even If I would prove my success for several years with all possible details, haters like Hudi still would call anybody a gambler that did not lose until now.. as if serios traders are not aware of the risk/reward ratio.

In fact, my results are counting way more than his notorious detesting. Truth hurts.

I am not advertising/selling anything, but here is a single smaller myfxbook account running one of my stategies, which you could follow (and desperately wait and pray it would crash).

https://www.myfxbook.com/members/Ete...Z8ekee6CF4Rxna

In anticipation of naysayers claiming I just would be lucky here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ilovehudi.png Size: 50 KB
  • #200
  • Dec 10, 2018 10:56am Dec 10, 2018 10:56am
Drolph, nice try.... but try harder.

The hyperlink you listed doesn't even match the picture you show....
The picture shows a typical behaviour of a grid or martingale system....before it blows up.
I can produce such a chart easily on my own if I need one.
So if you do this for a customer, this guy will soon learn it the hard way if he doesn't run.

Looking at your own account on myfxbook, the"microbot", it ooks like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 49 KB


Trade durations of a few seconds... your bot is scalping for a few pips. This must be kind of a micro diversified trend trading scalper bot?
It's obvious, considering spread and commissions you will fail on these factors alone.
Why do you think I am a hater? Do I spread hate? Do I destroy your dreams? Do I say you are not allowed to lose your money and your time?


It's rather the opposite. I am here to prevent pain for 99.8% of all retail traders and pull those into the light that cause harm to society in an epic scale since many many years.... proliferating one big lie of epic porportions.

So it's an honor to continously be a pain for your system selling business...
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