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A little bit of give back

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 26, 2018 8:40am Jun 26, 2018 8:40am
Hi all
I began trading circa 1984 and am now winding down except for a little spread betting to keep my hand in.
This made me consider what brought success in trading, luck(no), following market news(no), accurate price targets(yes). So this thread is to show people how I did it using Fibonacci. Now don't get bored already I am not going into the sex lives of rabbits or sunflowers etc. The methods describe in all the books are in my view no more than garbage.
Having been through all the dramas rookie traders experience I decided this is the best forum to post in. The initial attachments are simply to show the accuracy of my method. These show targets for both an uptrend and a downtrend. Whilst I show monthly charts for the sake of clarity this method will work on any timeframe.
Pls see the initial attachments, future posts will expand on the method.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Fib1.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Fib2.png Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Fib3Accuracy.png Size: 74 KB
  • #2
  • Jun 26, 2018 9:11am Jun 26, 2018 9:11am
The method is based upon the following model(See attachment). Length A = 61.8%, B = 38.2% therefore C = 100% or 1. A and B are in the ratio of 1.618 to 1.
This attachment shows the length horizontally turn the diagram vertical and begin to use your imagination I am certain you will see the potential in this method.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: golden-section.png Size: 9 KB
  • #3
  • Edited 9:28am Jun 26, 2018 9:15am | Edited 9:28am
Quoting Nut
Hi all I began trading circa 1984 and am now winding down except for a little spread betting to keep my hand in. This made me consider what brought success in trading, luck(no), following market news(no), accurate price targets(yes). So this thread is to show people how I did it using Fibonacci. Now don't get bored already I am not going into the sex lives of rabbits or sunflowers etc. The methods describe in all the books are in my view no more than garbage. Having been through all the dramas rookie traders experience I decided this is the best...
Nut you were in here from 2006 - totally subscribing here really interesting in hearing your thoughts
  • #4
  • Jun 26, 2018 9:22am Jun 26, 2018 9:22am
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Wow Nut you were in here from 2006 - totally subscribing here really interesting in hearing your thoughts
Thank you dean1star, pls stay with me I have plenty to give back
  • #5
  • Jun 26, 2018 9:46am Jun 26, 2018 9:46am
Whoops lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #6
  • Jun 26, 2018 10:05am Jun 26, 2018 10:05am
Quoting Nut
{quote} Thank you dean1star, pls stay with me I have plenty to give back
The idea of Fibs too has always seemed to elude me so for sure Nut will be around have a line up of questions too for later on - sure thats ok.
  • #7
  • Jun 26, 2018 10:33am Jun 26, 2018 10:33am
Quoting Nut
Hi all I began trading circa 1984 and am now winding down except for a little spread betting to keep my hand in. This made me consider what brought success in trading, luck(no), following market news(no), accurate price targets(yes). So this thread is to show people how I did it using Fibonacci. Now don't get bored already I am not going into the sex lives of rabbits or sunflowers etc. The methods describe in all the books are in my view no more than garbage. Having been through all the dramas rookie traders experience I decided this is the best...
We call this system „1+1=2“ and it’s based on the Fibonacci sequence. But there are a few things still missing to complete the system, perhaps you will talk about them later. Anyway it’s a very easy and profitable system. Keep going
  • #8
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:11am Jun 26, 2018 11:11am
Ok some more. See attachment Datum 1, yes measuring from a past low. This datum sets a solid point of reference to work from. Now we are trying to establish a relationship of 1.618:1 as per the model. A+B :1.618
Therefore setup your expansion as per attachment Setup2, Note Keep your measurement horizontal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Datum1.png Size: 54 KB
  • #9
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:23am Jun 26, 2018 11:23am
Sorry somehow the last post submitted before I was ready. As I was saying, measure from the high to datum 1 and place your fibs, Note keep your measurement horizontal otherwise you will be wrong.

Move your datum to the 61.8% level and then set your fibs so that 00.00 is on the datum, every time the 61.8 is breached then move your fibs to maintain the relationship.
See setup4

Setup 4 has a very important nuance which I shall explain in the next post.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup2.png Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup3.png Size: 69 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup4.png Size: 68 KB
  • #10
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:33am Jun 26, 2018 11:33am
Nut,

I use fibs also, but I draw differently. It is unclear to me how you are drawing them. Eager to see your method of drawing Fibs.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #11
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:35am Jun 26, 2018 11:35am
Interested, I am in.
  • #12
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:47am Jun 26, 2018 11:47am
Now for the subtle nuance of 38.2%. If you refer to the model in post 2 then the length A = 61.8% of the model leaving 38.2% remaining.
In this attachment the market hits the 38.2% and reverses WHY? This because you have now completed 100% of the move from the top. A+B =1
The 38.2% level is deadly rejections from this level need to be taken seriously. See also the 38.2 in setup2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup4.png Size: 68 KB
  • #13
  • Jun 26, 2018 11:50am Jun 26, 2018 11:50am
That,s is it then, hope I have not confused everybody. Hope you can use it to make money especially the rookies. That said only those supporting England in the World Cup are allowed to use it.

Cheers
Nut
  • #14
  • Jun 26, 2018 12:06pm Jun 26, 2018 12:06pm
Hey Nut,

Couple of questions for you plz, when you draw fibonacci lines,
Do you consider spike/shadow?????

I can see that you are drawing line chart instead of candle, does
It make any difference??? Have you tried with Candle???

Thanks,
  • #15
  • Edited 12:35pm Jun 26, 2018 12:13pm | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting Nut
That,s is it then, hope I have not confused everybody. Hope you can use it to make money especially the rookies. That said only those supporting England in the World Cup are allowed to use it. Cheers Nut
Got it thanks Nut interesting how you mentioned any time frame but i sense higher time frames one hour and up are as accurate and thanks for finding the time and the sentiment to do this appreciated.
  • #16
  • Jun 26, 2018 12:31pm Jun 26, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting loveandpeace
Hey Nut, Couple of questions for you plz, when you draw fibonacci lines, Do you consider spike/shadow????? I can see that you are drawing line chart instead of candle, does It make any difference??? Have you tried with Candle??? Thanks,
I used a line chart for clarity, lines can also be more accurate then superimpose candles over the line. But yes candles can bu used and I do include any spikes.
  • #17
  • Jun 26, 2018 12:36pm Jun 26, 2018 12:36pm
Quoting dean1star
{quote} Got it thanks Nut interesting how you mentioned any time frame but i sense higher time frames one hour and up are as accurate.
Hi dean1star

You are correct to remember price is price irrespective of time. The lower the timeframe the lesser degree of trend you are measuring. One hour is very good and I shall be posting more regarding the one hour in due course stay tuned. I shall try to have it done tomorrow.
  • #18
  • Jun 26, 2018 1:03pm Jun 26, 2018 1:03pm
Nut,

Do you consider any particular pair, and session???
  • #19
  • Jun 26, 2018 1:46pm Jun 26, 2018 1:46pm
I have used this on all instruments and timeframes. Price is price end of. The only thing that changes is the level of detail displayed. Using this method I have traded currency, commodities, stocks and options. Though options can be fraught because of the time value. Options brokers tend to make their own book for the retail trader which means they can mark up or down the time value at will. Things may have changed I hope so.
  • #20
  • Jun 26, 2018 4:45pm Jun 26, 2018 4:45pm
Hey Nut. *SUBSCRIBED* but I'm not the brightest tool in the shed only been trading for 2years now so expect a lot of queations...hope you don't mind.
Capital preservation, live to trade another day
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