EURUSD only

WARNING : COUNTER SWING

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Oh I did not mean the 25%, they are pretty clear and no problem.
But they are searching for new income sources for the EU parliament, and to tax every trade was already an idea a few years ago.
I fear it will come back and then for every trader living in the EU.
AFAIK the French have this tax already.

BTW my new broker is downunder too

Hi guys
Good morning.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” ― by John Maynard Keynes ―

☛ Markets aren't efficient and that they are subject to herd behavior.

☛ If you're smart and rational you'll see the irrationality long before the market does.

☛ That is, even if you are right that the market should go up (or down), the weight of opinion can keep that from happening for an unpredictable length of time. And during that time the market may go opposite to the 'right' direction.

☛ “Markets can remain irrational” - this implies contrary to old school economics that markets are sometimes irrational. Old school economics asserts that markets are always rational because they are stable and self correcting due to the fact the participants are rational. Unfortunately with masses of people there are manias of optimistic greed and pessimistic fear. This is because people observe their peers, both optimists and fear are contagious. Often times this contagion becomes universal. Old school ECONOMICS or even algo based systems FAILS to account for this HUMAN REALITY. Though there are Artificial Intelligence systems that collectively read news and sentiments via rss feeds, tweets, headlines, API services, etc... that may sum up as some type of human behavior.

☛ “longer than you can remain solvent” - old school economics assumes that an economic collapse cannot exist when supply and demand relentlessly spiral downwards to zero. That is because when everyone cuts back on consumption in response to uncertainty the paradox of thrift begins. Demand falls which induces further cuts in consumption. This was most recently evidenced in the depression of the 30's and for brief period in late 2008 / early 2009. The modern policy response is to stimulate demand by government stimulus. What is logical for a single person, a cutback in consumption is fatal when implemented by all people. The key factor here is confidence. The economy cannot survive without the rational assurance of confidence which has to be guaranteed by the government as a last resort if the market fails to create it.

...with some extra sauce of wisdom from David (Hanover), starting from below image...



☛ "The technical analyst sees only a small part of the total picture. Price charts show HOW price behaves (the EFFECT -- above the water in the image), while the underlying drivers combine in tug-of-war fashion to determine WHY (the CAUSE -- beneath the water in the image). Because the cause always precedes the effect, TA/PA is lagging.

☛ All Technical Analysis (TA) / Price Action (PA) is derived from price data that has already occurred. Some folk believe that PA is leading. But (for example) by the time a pin-bar on a 1 hour chart has formed/closed, its extreme price has been left behind -- and even an indicator-based crossover (on a shorter TF) might have given an earlier signal. Perhaps the best chart-based tool you'll found is S&R (or S&D zones, if you prefer). Now, the reason: it is caused by institutional order flow, that seeks to exploit vagaries in liquidity.

☛ Is it possible to profit from TA alone? Absolutely YES.

☛ Most money manager uses TA... But TA practitioners are nonetheless at a disadvantage, in that TA/PA lags price, and price itself lags its drivers, in an industry where speed of access to quality info can provide a competitive advantage. Some of the tools used by institutions are available to retail traders. For example, charts like Order Flow Analytics (OFA), footprint and bookmap it can gets the trader one step nearer the action, by providing a liquidity map.

☛ A lot of algo-based trading is based around liquidity imbalances, for the obvious reason that heavyweights seek best-price fills with the least slippage. And if many large institutions trade according to same principles, then their actions will likely have a cumulative effect, creating repetitive and potentially exploitable patterns." — by Hanover —

...other explanations below :

☛ “Technicals move only with fundamentals behind it. And at times... Technicals move ahead of Fundamentals. Market buys (or sells) on anticipation of profit. Always, it is an intuition for profit. And whatever fears there are — political, social or economic — are calculated risks in business.” — by Harry G. Liu —

☛ Why Technicals move ahead of Fundamentals? “Sometimes, too much speculation drives the price and added with some greed, the technical will lead too much ahead of its fundamentals that will cause the price to correct, consolidate...then either it breaks out to start, resume or end a trend.”

☛ It affects the price as an example... The price movement in terms of correlation, wherein positive & negative between pairs or crosses exist. This can turn to “normal” at any time, making though a pair to fall and the other to fall slower or to go sideways. There is also the possibility for a pair to rally in order to “reach” the other pair in terms of their prevalent correlation (positive or negative).

☛ Then on charts, you'll notice a price divergence and/or convergence and other times a price consolidation occurs before a break-out or respect to certain price inflection points (S&D or S&R or Pivot levels, Fibs... etc.).

Great collection of FX wisdom bro. Thanks!

I think a little adjustment needed to put in a right way...

Very nice chart, what platform do you use for charting?

decent analogy V2 ,,,,,, Most central banks that can print money tho ya need to flip that upside down and give it a spin to keep it a float just like a spinning top toy , nothing other than big ole ponzi schemes at best , only with the ability to print what ya need to keep it spinning ,, band aids and kicking the can down the road with quick fixes when it gets wobbly. Retail traders see only what they want to see to justify their reason for taking a trade , right or wrong . Reckon the big dogs even with all their research somebody still has to say a specific level to do what ever they are going to do that day for what ever they are doing for their clients and you can bet their bottom line will also figure into the equation , start each day with the days open as the line and branch out from there ,weekly highs and lows and the weekly open ,see what lines up with quarterly levels pick your level and take a shot ,,,,,quarterlys either a flurry of activity coming or like a lot of days this is just drivel left behind ,most big firms have their profit locked in for the quarter I would think , new week and its above Qs2 , drifting up towards the last swing high not out of the question ,,closer to that than a new low atm ,,time will tell. Wishing all a great week , cheers

Frankie & London Pre-Open S&D Levels. ► M5

Monday Pre-Open S&D Levels. ► H1

waiting noting else can be done

Looks to be dropping ahead of EU open, not taking any serious positions yet - too uncertain.

Quick Daily Outlook (Updated S/R Levels)

Good luck to all..

Stay Green

Quick H1 Outlook

My H1 bias is bearish.. Waiting for today's London Opening (L.O.) price..

Stay Green

i am not a fan of shorting this idiot

Dude - U just got reported!
Whats wrong with you???

It's Monday - dont forget your daily intake of prescribed meds!

stuck in between not sure where to go.

...

Megaphone pattern worked, but now what?

reported for what