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  • #26,241
  • Edited 12:11pm Jun 23, 2018 11:57am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting jas0992
For price action traders: ... I saw an inverted hammer (marked with red arrow) and the price dragged back down the 4H resistance. I thought its a good entry for a short trade.... I closed the current trade at a loss and opened a long trade (marked with green arrow) with a target just below the next 4H resistance.... I couldn't figure out why the price went up after forming a bearish pin bar at the resistance.....
Let me start off by stating: Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Successful traders are not successful because they never lose, they're successful traders because they lose better.

I am a big believer in "What you want to see; where you want to see it". Your initial trade meets these two criteria, but let's take a closer look.

What you want to see.

The "inverted hammer" you identified is very unreliable. There are far more reliable "inverted hammer" patterns. Most involve intervals preceding the "inverted hammer line", and or the intervals after it. Typically, the more reliable patterns require that the "inverted hammer line" have a high that is higher than the previous interval. One of the more reliable patterns looks like this:

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Where you want to see it.

You mentioned taking the trade at resistance, so you have the "where" in place. From my perspective, however, the where is flawed. I believe Supply/Demand Zones, specifically Supply/Demand Delta Zones are the superior "Where". When I look at the EUR/USD 240 min. chart, I see that your "inverted hammer" appears in a Supply/Demand Delta Zone. Because price is in area where there was previously a key change in the Supply/Demand Dynamic in favor of Demand, I would only be looking to get long.

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With all that being said, I like the fact that you saw what you wanted to see, where you wanted to see it, and took the trade. You then were quick to recognize you were wrong, exited you position, and even took a position in the opposite direction. If in doing all that you were following your trading plan, then you did everything right.

The fact that you were willing to admit you were wrong is big. There is a popular thread that states "Down Draw is a part of trading". Yes, Down Draw is a part of trading. But you have to be able to admit you're wrong and cut the losses short. Not keep adding to them until the market eventually turns in your favor. The market can stay "wrong" longer than you can stay solvent.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,242
  • Edited 1:03pm Jun 23, 2018 12:43pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Only like this)) @Maxjoy, cheers, bro!) Green, green, only green!) {image}
Yeah Bro! Наздаровъе!
Откудо смотрим?
Instagram - FX_ELITE_Europe | In Search of #BIG_R | Need No Small Pips
  • #26,243
  • Jun 23, 2018 4:05pm Jun 23, 2018 4:05pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Let me start off by stating: Trading is about probabilities, not certainties. Successful traders are not successful because they never lose, they're successful traders because they lose better. I am a big believer in "What you want to see; where you want to see it". Your initial trade meets these two criteria, but let's take a closer look. What you want to see. The "inverted hammer" you identified is very unreliable. There are far more reliable "inverted hammer" patterns. Most involve intervals preceding the "inverted hammer line", and or...
hands down one of the best posts I ever read on FF
Especialy the "admit you were wrong" part and the "even took a trade in the other direction".
I'm involved in trading since a long time, and I still find this is the hardest part. It is one thing to have the nerves (and the capital and risk management) to take losses, but to see the mistake, admit and react accordingly by correcting the error, this takes a certain kind of quality that you don't find very often.
I myself opened a terrible trade on friday and I am very greatful for another trader who pointed it out simply by posting his chart and said "look".
I (openly because I posted the setup for the trade) corrected my mistake today and will close the trade and revert it as soon as the markets open.
It is nothing wrong with being wrong. Being wrong is a major part of the game and I firmly believe that "being wrong the right way" and to have the ability to swallow the ego and admit/correct the mistake, is a super important skill in trading.
We are all wrong, all the time. No matter if newbro or old soul.
It's part of the game. Better be good at it
you are not expected to understand this
  • #26,244
  • Jun 23, 2018 4:17pm Jun 23, 2018 4:17pm
Hello @v2vboni, I am sorry to contact you like this. I wanted to tell you that Divergence.ex4 freezes my mt4. I am referring to your Neural Network post. Also some tips for entries would nice, except for basic TDI which I believe is method you follow for entries?
Quoting v2vboni
Short bias... M30 - Intraday setup {image} Weekly setup {image}
  • #26,245
  • Jun 23, 2018 9:26pm Jun 23, 2018 9:26pm
Quoting Teek
{quote} hands down one of the best posts I ever read on FF Especialy the "admit you were wrong" part and the "even took a trade in the other direction". I'm involved in trading since a long time, and I still find this is the hardest part. It is one thing to have the nerves (and the capital and risk management) to take losses, but to see the mistake, admit and react accordingly by correcting the error, this takes a certain kind of quality that you don't find very often. I myself opened a terrible trade on Friday and...
I too learned from that same response to you...dont remember the post but it made me go back and look at the short i had just opened...i will be closing it as soon as the market opens tomorrow...always appreciative of the very best shared knowledge in this thread!
Zip
  • #26,246
  • Edited 2:42am Jun 24, 2018 2:12am | Edited 2:42am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote}......and even took a position in the opposite direction. If in doing all that you were following your trading plan, then you did everything right.
The one thing the trader should try NOT TO DO, in fact NEVER DO.

Quoting jas0992
I closed the current trade at a loss and opened a long trade (marked with green arrow) with a target just below the next 4H resistance. Luckily, this trade closed with TP hitting. I couldn't figure out why the price went up after forming a bearish pin bar at the resistance. What are your thoughts? {image}
The best way to know if your opposite long trade is the right practice is to record down every single opposite trades you opened in similar fashion. The long term result will give you the accurate picture.
  • #26,247
  • Edited 4:39am Jun 24, 2018 4:28am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting skyway
{quote} The one thing the trader should try NOT TO DO, in fact NEVER DO. {quote} The best way to know if your opposite long trade is the right practice is to record down every single opposite trades you opened in similar fashion. The long term result will give you the accurate picture.
there's a difference between "nervous trading" (bad) and correcting an obvious error by reacting to price (good).
Anything is good if you have rational reason to do, whatever you do...
You can't just say "a trader should never do this". Being unbiased, move away from opinion, and trade against yourself is a high skill that very few people posess and it is vital for trading. Why sit on a loser and whine about "oh I was wrong" when you can correct it? He was trading the 4 hour chart, plenty of time to see and correct the mistake and take the opportunity that presents itself infront of his eyes, IF there's rational reason behind it.

this is my very strong opinion on the subject:
When you can show me a losing trade and explain to me why it was a good trade, you understand trading.
When you can show me a winning trade and explain to me why it was a terrible bad trade, even if it rallied 500 pips your way, you mastered it.

Anyone can brag with results. Anyone can be a "good winner". Show me a good loser, that's where the quality of a good trader can be found.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #26,248
  • Edited 5:25am Jun 24, 2018 5:12am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting jas0992
.....I saw an inverted hammer (marked with red arrow) and the price dragged back down the 4H resistance. I thought its a good entry for a short trade. But 4 hours later, the trade wasn't seem to be working in my favor as the next 4H candle closed making a bullish engulfing and also closing above the 4H resistance. I closed the current trade at a loss and opened a long trade (marked with green arrow) with a target just below the next 4H resistance. Luckily, this trade closed with TP hitting. I couldn't figure out why the price went up after...
I don't wish to clutter this thread with a long post to address every aspect(more than one aspect) that you brought up in your post.

Both HiddenGap and you approve of this practice to open a trade in the opposite direction when the original trade fails.
This is common practice among traders.
I happen to disagree. Every trade is independent from the each other.
He asked "what are your thoughts ?" I gave mine.

This is jas0992 4hrs chart which indicated both trades. The 2nd opposite trade is opened during the next candle after the original 4hr candle.

I won't make any commentary. The readers can make their own conclusions viewing the chart.

My post is based on one ground -

How has the market structure changed from one candle to the next current candle that it somehow indicated a complete change of direction ?

Yup just the 2 candles.
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  • #26,249
  • Jun 24, 2018 6:15am Jun 24, 2018 6:15am
Daily Outlook for Monday

  1. Main support could be positioned roughly at 1.1623 area.
  2. Bulls have to break out of a 20 pips thick block first: 1.1665/85
  3. Daily candle close above 1.1770 is required to flip bearish bias to bullish!
  4. Daily candle close below 1.1572 is required for bearish continuation!

My half cents.. Good luck to all for the new week..

Stay Green

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #26,250
  • Jun 24, 2018 6:28am Jun 24, 2018 6:28am
Quoting antisystem
{quote} Only like this)) @Maxjoy, cheers, bro!) Green, green, only green!) {image}
u guys enjoying life!!
  • #26,251
  • Jun 24, 2018 6:37am Jun 24, 2018 6:37am
Posted weekly analysis https://twitter.com/BabyBossTaha
Help Others with GOD help
  • #26,252
  • Jun 24, 2018 7:14am Jun 24, 2018 7:14am
Quoting skyway
{quote} How has the market structure changed from one candle to the next current candle that it somehow indicated a complete change of direction ? Yup just the 2 candles. {image}
It didn't. Price is just about to come out of a Demand (Support) Zone. Direction was pretty clear right from the start.
He shorted into Demand, saw the mistake, reverted it. Nothing wrong with it.
He probably didn't know what he was doing because he only tried to read a single candle, (most likely learned from "free" trading education that is widely pushing a false narrative because IB contracts and shit...) so I doubt he had rational reason to revert the trade, but without knowing it he did the right thing by reacting to price with corecting the error.
I just gave you my personal rational reason why I would have reverted that trade, if I ever happen to short into a Demand without very good reason to do so (anticipating a break of Support based on strong correlating setups over multiple assets paired with a strong fundamental trigger event would be such a reason, but that's just me...)
and that's why it's perfectly fine to revert a trade, IF you have GOOD reason for it.

As the trader stated, he is learning. You don't learn by doing things right. You learn from mistakes.
you are not expected to understand this
  • #26,253
  • Jun 24, 2018 7:36am Jun 24, 2018 7:36am
Quoting Teek
{quote} It didn't. Price is just about to come out of a Demand (Support) Zone. Direction was pretty clear right from the start.
Yup I agree.

Quoting Teek
{quote}He shorted into Demand, saw the mistake, reverted it. Nothing wrong with it. He probably didn't know what he was doing because he only tried to read a single candle, (most likely learned from "free" trading education that is widely pushing a false narrative because IB contracts and shit...) so I doubt he had rational reason to revert the trade, but without knowing it he did the right thing by reacting to price with corecting the error.
I agree again. That's why he asked for our thoughts.

Quoting Teek
{quote}I just gave you my personal rational reason why I would have reverted that trade, if I ever happen to short into a Demand without very good reason to do so (anticipating a break of Support based on strong correlating setups over multiple assets paired with a strong fundamental trigger event would be such a reason, but that's just me...)
I disagree. You will not have opened that short trade when "Price is just about to come out of a Demand (Support) Zone. Direction was pretty clear right from the start."

Quoting Teek
{quote}....and that's why it's perfectly fine to revert a trade, IF you have GOOD reason for it. As the trader stated, he is learning. You don't learn by doing things right. You learn from mistakes.
I agree we learn from mistakes. But when you reverse trades without knowing what is going on with the market, it might make matters worse.

It is much better to step back from the market after a failed trade. Reanalyse the market from scratch.

That's why my earlier post sensibly propose not to open an immediate opposite trade when the original trade fails.
Unless there is compelling reason to do so, eg. a significant fundamental breaking news.
  • #26,254
  • Jun 24, 2018 9:13am Jun 24, 2018 9:13am
Quoting skyway
{quote} I don't wish to clutter this thread with a long post to address every aspect(more than one aspect) that you brought up in your post. Both HiddenGap and you approve of this practice to open a trade in the opposite direction when the original trade fails. This is common practice among traders. I happen to disagree. Every trade is independent from the each other. He asked "what are your thoughts ?" I gave mine. This is jas0992 4hrs chart which indicated both trades. The 2nd opposite trade is opened during the next candle after the original...
scalpers can take trades any place in any single leg ( as teek said direction pretty clear from the beginning , not so for most till it ends though ) & so can revert it also when fit appropriate. here just see in h1 tf one wave apparently ended & so one can think correction to below 1.1574 before new leg start but unfortunately it did not , > last leg of the wave started extension at some sr & so revert to follow it . all ok for scalping only but anytime risky play if not expert in scalping with all limits , may be he knew it & done perfect. fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #26,255
  • Edited 12:01pm Jun 24, 2018 9:31am | Edited 12:01pm
Hi Guys,

My current view from a longer term perspective. We have long candle wicks on the weekly timeframe spelling rejection and support. We have failed with a weekly close below the rising trend line and also my 240 LWMA set to open. My yearly pivot at 1.14789 which has held since August 2015 seems in tact for the time being. If price bounces up as per my current chart we could see 1.19961 from my current support zone which is the mid level of my current supply/demand zone. If price breaks the rising trend line no doubt my yearly pivot at 1.14789 will be tested. This brings a new dimension from a longer term perspective. A weekly close below 1.14789 will likely see a fall to 1.11723 the next supply zone which seems unlikely at this point in time but possible, the next week will hold the clues.
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As I believe in cycles I will relate this to the lower timeframe. I believe in retraces towards my monthly pivot at 1.17616 from the 20th of each month. Not cast in stone. But it happens. My current cycle is up. Longer term view remains down for the time being, short term up.
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Best regards for the new week.

Cheers
Trade to trade another day
  • #26,256
  • Jun 24, 2018 9:53am Jun 24, 2018 9:53am
Quoting skyway
{quote} I don't wish to clutter this thread with a long post to address every aspect(more than one aspect) that you brought up in your post. Both HiddenGap and you approve of this practice to open a trade in the opposite direction when the original trade fails. This is common practice among traders. I happen to disagree. Every trade is independent from the each other. He asked "what are your thoughts ?" I gave mine. This is jas0992 4hrs chart which indicated both trades. The 2nd opposite trade is opened during the next candle after the original...
Hello Skyway,

I saw your chart, can you tell me how you got those levels? is it Automatic or you put it manually? how do you determine that?
Help Others with GOD help
  • #26,257
  • Jun 24, 2018 11:16am Jun 24, 2018 11:16am
Hey guys, if anyone from EU has an opinion on new Retail Trade Restrictions - feel free to share it here → ESMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,258
  • Jun 24, 2018 11:51am Jun 24, 2018 11:51am
Quoting Maxjoy
Hey guys, if anyone from EU has an opinion on new Retail Trade Restrictions - feel free to share it here → ESMA {image}
I am German. As it was clear that something like this would be coming I have a non EU broker.
But I do not expect this to be a safe heaven.
Sooner or later they will get us with EU taxes too.
  • #26,259
  • Jun 24, 2018 12:37pm Jun 24, 2018 12:37pm
Quoting CandleStar
{quote} I am German. As it was clear that something like this would be coming I have a non EU broker. But I do not expect this to be a safe heaven. Sooner or later they will get us with EU taxes too.
I too dodged the incoming dump the day when my old broker informed me about the date.
Has nothing to do with taxes btw, as a german you pay your 25%, tax no matter what. If you don't, good luck.
I shipped to Australia.... all good downunder, am very happy with my current broker, for now.
Even if I don't trade overleveraged and I don't touch CFD's, I do like my freedom
you are not expected to understand this
  • #26,260
  • Jun 24, 2018 1:35pm Jun 24, 2018 1:35pm
i guess that the first hours will be downtrend
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