The Rabbit Hole

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the rapper has now been shot died

Based on the numbers alone, you're right. But additional tariffs have little room for manoeuvre. Those currently imposed on China (and others) have been engineered to minimise impact on the average US citizen. Refrigerators in the US are now 17% more expensive as a result of tariffs, but these are not items purchased that frequently. While US trade officials have been very effective in strategic targeting of those items that are less likely to raise a yell from Joe public, if tariffs start hitting on computers and iphones - there there will be the devil to pay.

So while another $200bn of Chinese imports may be up for tariff review, there is not a lot of room left to start applying those tariffs without retail prices being noticeably hit. So not a lot of leeway.

Plus, it's not just China. Tariffs ave been applied to most of the US's major trade partners and each are implementing tit-for-tat tariffs in response. Collectively, this isn't going to end well for anyone.

During the Great Depression, tariffs were brought in to play then in order to strengthen the economy with the exact opposite effect, it just made matters worse. As it will this time too.

Well, well... slow clap

Stu, we won't forget you skipper!

After reading your post a few times I came to the conclusion that you are painting with a broad brush in which there are several assertions made by you that I simply don’t agree with and are factually incorrect and I will tell you why.

I am an international trade consultant so I study these issues on a daily basis and many of your assertions are simply over generalized opinions that is not really rooted on the actuals and particulars of what the current US trade policies are or what they are based on. No fault to you as these are very complex issues and they share a semiotic relationship along the geopolitical construct with the countries involved in these targeted trade issues. There is both a historical and short term view that is currently shaping US trade policy so when I read your statement on the US has very little room to maneuver I simply disagree! In fact the opposite is true as they have all the leverage in the world when negotiating with China and the EU currently and are positioned perfectly to negotiate any deal from a position of strength vs. a position from weakness.

Trade deficit with China in 2017 375 billion dollars which accounts for 66% of total deficit of US traded goods
Canada $582 billion traded with an $18 billion deficit.
Mexico $557 billion traded with a $71 billion deficit.
Japan $204 billion traded with a $69 billion deficit.
Germany $171 billion traded with a $65 billion deficit.
The EU with close to over 500 billion in trade goods 101 Billion dollar deficit

Add it all up and you have close to 700 billion total in trade deficits. By that account is not going to be sustainable for the long tern health of the American economy.

Now consider the other factor that the countries you speak of that are the targets, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and China, all have very restrictive policies that are very unfair to US companies and their exporters which makes current trade relations very lopsided. For example, China, enjoys close to 70 percent market access of the US economy, where as the US only has less than 20 percent access of it’s counterpart’s economy. With these tariffs, even if China retaliates they can only do so on the limited basis based on the number of the companies already exporting goods there, particularly agricultural products, autos, and other misc merchandise where as the US has way more of an advantage over China to imposing tariffs on the goods it ships to the US, simple math will reveal as much as being true. Thus collecting on the taxes that China has been skirting for the past 30 years due to manipulative practices by way of NAFTA, illegal dumping of inferior Aluminum and steel products artificially inflating pricing, etc., it seems rather fair(more on this in a bit). The EU and Germany have similar trade practices in place, unfortunately they too have very little leverage as they are both tied to NATO agreements (which the US no longer will subsidize), as well as being dependent on China for manufacturing and trade, thus the semiotic relationship is tied indirectly to NAFTA to access US markets and bypassing tariffs.

China for the most part is unique when compared to other countries and the trade relations we share. First of, China has never repaid the US for loans it has defaulted on prior to WWII. According to international law those loans are still valid and outstanding and todays value based on inflationary and interest accrued would account for almost 1.3 trillion dollars that China still has as outstanding debt to the US. The US owes China approximately 1.8 Trillion for US treasuries they purchsed so the “ACE” in the hole for the US should China try to call the US on it’s debt, would be recalling this debt China had defaulted on years ago and never has paid back, would be an issue no doubt would be brought up to offset what the US owes China bringing the total amount to 5 Billion. This is the dirty secret that China doesn’t want to admit, but should they go far enough to go for a tit for tat retaliatory measure as you articulate this no doubt would be used against them in in any potential WTO arbitration thus possibly straining the the China US relation for future trade agreements. I assure you, China has way more to lose should they go down this path as they need the US more than the US needs them when it comes to trade and they are not in the right on this issue as they know perfectly well that they have been cheating all along and are now being called out on it, and they have no save facing measure to counter other than announce that they will impose their own tariffs on US imported goods. We also won’t mention the military secrets they constantly are trying to steal, with recent news detailing how they have stolen Navy secrets just reported a little over a week ago, (Does that sound like a friendly trading partner who claims to be friends to the USA?)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/china-hacked-a-navy-contractor-and-secured-a-trove-of-highly-sensitive-data-on-submarine-warfare/2018/06/08/6cc396fa-68e6-11e8-bea7-c8eb28bc52b1_story.html?utm_term=.2c9e181a8ed4

or the loss of intellectual property rights they constantly are stealing or infringing upon on a regular basis that is costing American companies millions a year in lost revenues, then you may begin to see why these announcements by the US trade Commerce Dept are purposely and strategically are being implemented over a course of time after careful and methodical analysis has been completed. Most fall within the category of national security and the US is trying to address some of these issues they have with China as it relates to trade infractions and corporate espionage. In other words, China can not pretend to be a purveyor of truth if it is complicit in undermining it with nefarious intentions. China has done much to undermine its own positions when it comes to these issues and behind close doors they have been told as such! Hence the term Panda mask, and the Dragon face is how China does business!

The other issue that you fail to see Is NAFTA. It is currently a very contentious issue and China is again central to it as to why Canada and Mexico refuses to come to terms. China has invested heavily in both in these countries for both Aluminum and auto parts manufacturing industries. For many years China has been importing these product into the US economy without having to pay a penny for import tariffs. The EU and Germany have been doing the same. So in other words all the tariffs that you are seeing are proper assessments based on market access and revised import duties on certain products that were previously shuttled through a NAFTA loophole in which Trump has vowed to put an end to. This will have little effect on the American consumer especially considering that Auto manufacturing as in American made is returning as well as new Aluminum and Steel plants that are producing thousands of jobs with newly updated technology. This is bad news for both China, Mexico, the EU, Germany and Canada in general. To fully understand the bigger picture and inner dynamics at play here, one has to look at both China and NAFTA to get a clearer understanding what is at stake here. Trillions of dollars, and you can bet the MSM apparatuses being used by the Globalists such as CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters are all going to be spending millions in overtime campaigns to spread as much mis-information as possible.

The reality is Canada relies more US trade goods than the US relies on Canada, and Trudeau’s recent statements are based on a ideological position rather than a realistic one. Canadians even admit this as being true and are vastly disappointed by him and his staff in the way they tried to frame their arguments in the current negotiations such as inserting gender and Global warming as part of their demands in the negotiating process. Mexico on the other hand, has an election coming up and is most likely going to vote in a Marxist based government, and so any trade negotiations is pretty much dead in the water at this point and the inevitability of NAFTA altogether being abolished is pretty much a foregone conclusion.

You bring up refrigerators as a first example as being 17% more expensive. For foreign brands I can see that maybe the case, but nowhere have I seen on domestic brands (American Made) such as Maytag, Whirlpool, and GE as being the case. If foreign made brands become more expensive I am all for it, it encourages more consumer spending on American made brands at a cheaper price and is supportive of the American worker. Win Win and it supports the “MAGA” agenda.

Secondly you bring up computers and I-phones. Who do you think already manufactures the majority of those items now? As far as semi conductors, China does not have the market cornered, and within a few years will lose out to India who is already invested millions to become competitive in this industry, the US just negotiated a bi-lateral trade agreement with India and is already in place to address this very issue. So really not worried about this either.

Where I will agree with you on is that things may get a little more expensive in the short term for US consumers for certain products, but the reality is, it is a small price to pay and a sacrifice that most Americans who understand the bigger picture are willing to undergo for the long term health of our economy. Americans have been and are of the mind set of buying products made to last with quality in mind, and not Chinese made goods that are finding their way to landfills at alarming rates due to their inferior quality and breaking down more frequently becoming more and more unreliable. For example, and friend of mine was just sharing with me that a lot of American suppliers are now returning because the demand for American made products is rising. Such as Shovels, Screws, and machine made tools that don’t break or strip because the material used is inferior. My friend illustrated a Chinese made shovel in which was used to dig a hole broke after using it a few times. He went out and bought an American made one because the workmanship and quality are way better than a Chinese made one and is more dependable. The point is, if Americans have to suffer without the likes of Walmart, Target and have to pay more to have stuff made in America, then the sacrifice is worth it in the long term as these products such as Clothing, and other goods will be made cheaper over time as demand increases, and manufacturing of these goods returns to American made.

Lastly, Tariffs is an instrument that has been used for a very long time(100’s of years) in order to protect the worker (laborers) and the respective countries economies. You are trying to compare depression era Tariffs to the ones of today and that is an incorrect way to look at it. It is like comparing Apples to oranges! Different era and different issues! The key word in the current trading dispute is fair trade, not free trade based on equal reciprocity, nothing more nothing less, and the US is within its right to be able to address this issue after being taken advantage of for so many years. Countries objecting to this are simply crying foul because their gravy train is about to end and their own deficits will be furthered exposed as well as facing the truth of no longer trying to steal away American Wealth for subsidies that are no longer needed (such as the costs associated with a post WWII reconstruction efforts to European nations as well as parts of Asia). It is just the realities that most countries involved with the US in trade will have to face as such changes are going to be the new reality for many years to come and there is not a thing they will be able to do about it. The US has contributed rather unselfishly in helping rebuild Europe after WWII and as well as funding most of the security like NATO, and all they are saying now is that those policies are outdated and now that countries like Germany are now making money hand over fist, it is about time they start paying for their own. Countries such as India, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and others have already agreed to new terms with the US in their bilateral agreements knowing perfectly well that they are getting ahead of the curve and accepting this as the new reality, at some point the EU if it survives which IMO is a big question mark, will eventually have to renegotiate with the US, but my guess much of what China gets, so too should the US in regards to bi-lateral trade agreements with the EU.

This no doubt is pretty funny, and probably holds the record as the longest discussed topic on this forum! If I recall over a course of a few weeks?

A very big thank you to the pest control team: Jarhead, Alex, TallyWags, Jmn, Exodus. You certainly find out who your true friends are when the going gets sticky. Nice job boys!

DrManhatten, thank you for your interesting and extensive post. Some observations.

When I suggest you come across as a patriot and a Trump supporter I mean no disrespect. Certainly not to the former and only with some fascination in the latter. But while you see nothing but good from an economic perspective from these policies they are destructive to the fabric of the US and its relationships with its major trading partners in the long term. Citing 'national security' as a basis for tariffs simply to circumvent WTO rules is blatantly tangential and totally in keeping with Mr. Trump's business ethics prior to becoming president. Although you seem to applaud the end justifying any means, I'm not sure the majority of Americans would agree with you. I was in NYC last week and the biggest question you all had for me was "Does everyone else think all Americans are like Trump?". There is genuine concern for your reputation globally. That may not, at the moment, feature on any balance sheet, but it is a significant factor going forward.

Your point that tariffs will make things more expensive for Americans, but it's worth it, as demand will filter down to lowest cost and the US can once again manufacture at lower than import prices is circular in the extreme. The US is not competitive in its domestic markets for many items, such as clothing. If the only way you can become competitive is by artificially raising the cost of imported items that isn't a productivity gain - it's a con. The consumer loses out by paying a higher price for the now lowest priced item! This was the major thrust of my earlier post. While you may not care about increases in retail prices brought about by these tariffs, not all your compatriots would likely agree with you. It is the current juggling trick (and being done very effectively) of targeting tariffs on end products which are not frequent consumables. And for these items, there is no more wiggle room. Which was my point. Any further tariffs introduced will inevitably and immediately hit the stores for day-to-day purchases and this is where things get really very tricky and the tide of public (or at least pro-Trump public) will turn against him.

On the same topic you say "the sacrifice will be worth it". This resonates with those in my country (UK) who use the same battle cry to justify the cultural, economic and legal nightmare that is ensuing from the decision to exit the EU. It is only thinly veiled patriotism, with, unfortunately, far more significant additional layers of protectionism, isolationism, racism and jingoism. Although it is clear the costs will be significant to implement this decision, they still want to push ahead for selfish personal reasons. That the demographics of these brexiteers are unemployed or low-paid with no college education, is of little consolation as their sheer weight of numbers drags the rest of us over the cliff with them. The parallels between these people and Trump supporters are uncanny.

If everything were nothing but balance sheets we wouldn't be having this dialogue. The USA has achieved preeminence in the world in just about every area one cares to consider, but especially in honesty, integrity and fairness. The current administration's policies, activities, methods and attitudes are doing untold and possibly irreparable damage to the very fabric which makes Americans, Americans and America, America.

did you guys grass on Pivot Trader?

You are entitled to your opinion, but ignoring those pesky little things called facts certainly doesn't give any credibility to your arguments you put forth thus far.

According to your premise American has no right to fight back on unfair trade practices, but instead we get the usual drivel of doom and gloom and the world is going to end with irreparable harm! Seriously? Can't make this stuff up and your statements while ignoring all the FACTS I succinctly listed is absurd on face value with the many fictitious claims you make to state your case thus far! I suggest you actually study up on the issues and facts I just laid out before basing any argument on emotional nonsense. Globalism is dying and rightfully so, you just haven't accepted it yet!

Who is the majority of Americans that you speak of when the majority voted for Trump? Your arguments are a strawmans one!

I should have known by now when you throw around words like Jingoism, racism, protectionism Isolationism (repeated words of MSM talking points) and state your case against BREXIT that I would be engaging in an intellectually honest conversation? Ha! You had me fooled!

Smikers is that you or your alter ego speaking for you? Hmmm!

Its been taken care of! Waiting for the next incarnation!

Sorry Jen that I wasn't readily available for you when I should have been, I promise I won't let that happen again!

Thank you!

Ross, he really freaked me out. I suspended him along with others, but each time his suspension was lifted and he made full use of that window to spout his vile abuse once more. I have made thousands of posts in the 6 years I have been at FF and he goes through them and quotes me from long ago? That's obsessive. I got worried that if he could go to all that trouble then perhaps he could find me in real life, if I have given away enough clues. He was so full of hate towards me and others. That's why I took a break and if he was still around and FF would not address it, then I'm afraid, it was likely to be permanent. I was mostly worried for my kids.

I can take a needlessly acerbic style in my stride if the logic and facts are correct and if the conversation is fun and rewarding. I understand where bulletin board brashness comes from and wouldn't wish to trample your sensitivities as that's obviously already been done to you before, hence your attitude.

However, if you're going to carry on trumpeting FACTS as a prerequisite to genuine intellectual discourse, I suggest you take your own medicine and check out the actual votes cast. Clinton took around 2.9 million more votes (popular vote) than Trump. Unless you're going to go down the 'fake news' route in which case, don't waste your time or mine.

As for my making 'many fictitious claims' - I haven't made any as far as I'm aware, but in this era of Alternative Facts I guess anything goes, especially rigour.

But please feel free to go off topic once more with (well crafted, I'll give you that) personal insults and sweeping generalisations.

For my part, I do believe I'm done with this discussion with you for now.

he was just sick of scam playing about he was not going to come for you in real life

He's not SOS. SOS's English was bad all of the time and no one understood him. PT's English was good some of the time and he pretended to have poor English some of the time. Nevertheless he was always understood. SOS was never sinister, just an idiot.

What would you do? This happens to me A LOT. Says plenty about Corbyn voters.
https://youtu.be/51epGAms9Jc

SOS was pretending to have bad English it was part of his trolling SOS is obviously just mad that when he stared posting here with a different used name he was kicked so he come to the conclusion people in here reported him and that why he attack the rabbit hole/rat hole

anyway we are the ginger stepchild of FF SOS/PT got away with a awful lot before he had his membership revoked think how quick Stu or Devauxt had their membership revoked and they were long term posters and clearly not trolls and we know how FF works on a seniority base system so maybe we should not try policing this place as we are considered scum by the people running FF and will not be listen to it was properly JMN complaining that got SOS/PT kicked JMN is good at getting people kicked

and just in case PT is a refugee living in Germany try not to let him change your culture so quickly
(In our culture a grass is despised, a real low life.)